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The late weekend/early week rain has backed off to basically nothing but the second system looks robust

Winter cancel.

And the beat goes on

The fog has rolled in a lot heavier this morning.

37 this morning, fog is trying to roll in.

Yuck. Glad I'm headed out of the tropics for the winter. I've seen more snow in one hour where I'm headed then what's forecast for my area the entire winter lol

You’re going to have good days and a few not so good days. But it will get better! 35 degrees and slight fog.

@40/70 Benchmark CWG call for DC region for winter

Entire winter

Latest Euro has more weakening of the PV than past runs.

Look at those temps yeesh...that is probably alot of snow to rain scenarios. I'll take it back here but yuck

Warmer AM, mid 30s but still some frost out there. spectacular day ahead.

The lag interval for surface effects from minor and major stratospheric warming events can be quite variable. We had a minor warming event in late December 1997 into early January 1998 and a strong Greenland blocking pattern emerged in January. But since the Pacific vortex was displaced so far to the east, it resulted in a very warm pattern over North America.

2 out rally’s are the best! Love when my softball team does it happy they won!

So here is a list I compiled long ago listed typical and atypical remarks found on SA airport reports before ASOS and METAR was adapted. REMARKS FOUND ON SA REPORTS CB W-N DRFTG W ACMAM OMTNS E-SE T N MOVG SE BD DSNT W T NW MOVG RPDLY SE PRJMP 21/0000/04 T MOVD S D2 TWR VSBY 1/2 HAIL SHAFT DSNT E FEW AC GREEN SKY NW T OVHD MVMT UNKN LARGE CB NE WATERSPOUT B22 1E MOVG LTL ARCUS ROLL CLD NW TB32E55 DSPTD DARK GREEN RWU N-NW OCNL LTGICCG N-NE LAST FQT LTGICCCCGCA ALQDS TCU BLDG RPDLY W-N CONTUS LTGCG VLY FOG FEW CU OVHD AND SW T OHVD-NE-S MOVG SLOLY SE VSBY LWR NW-NE LUNAR ECLIPSE SE FQT LTGICCCCW CORONA LTG W-NW SUN DOG OCNL DSNT LTG N MOON ECLIPSE VSBL E HLSTO 2 EARTH OVERSHADOWING MOON PRESFR FQT VIVID LTGCG N PRESRR GF IN LOW SPTS PRES UNSTDY APRNT FROPA MDT CU ALQDS OCNL SPKLS TCU E CLDS OBSCG MTN TPS NE-SE CB SW-W MOVG NE RW- OCNLY RW TORNADO OVHD MOVG NE RADAT ZERO| TORNADO MOVD N DRFTG SNW TORNADO B14E27 DSPTD BS3 CB PARENT CLD E MOVG E RVR10- FUNNEL CLOUD NE MOVG NE LSR08 SNOINCR 5/8/21 GRDL WNDSHFT S5 R05RVR50V60+ F4 WND LGT AND VRBL R1 ZRIPE39 SUN DMLY VSB SIL RADAT 93M041054096/2 SB1453E10 CHH RADAT DLAD THN SPOTS IOVC OUN RADAT MISG VSBY 1/2V1 RADAT N/A INTMT R- BA POOR PCPN VRY LGT PTCHY ICE ON RWY CIG RGD GREEN SKY IN LGT FLASHES NE FEW ST 5 HND VRY DRK E-S WND SHFTD GRDLY HLSTO PEA SIZE CI NE LRG BINOVC W HAZY ROTATING CLOUDS NW AC S T ALQDS STNRY BINOVC WALL CLOUD NW R- OCNL R BD OVR RWY PKWND 3462/20 SQUALL LINE NW DRK SW FQT DEADLY LTGICCCCG ALQDS PCPN 120 TOTAL PCPN 1.90 IN 36 MINS OCNL RW- DEBRI ALOFT AB17E21 ACFT MISHAP WND 26V34 T2 SET SML BINOVC DOWNBURST 2 W OF AIRPORT F DVLPG CB ANVIL N OVR LAKE RWU S-SW WR// BLK CLDS ALQDS RCRNR LN TCU W CIG 5V7 VSBY E 1 SEA BREAKING OVER BARRIER ACCAS S-SW TIDAL FLOODING HALF WEATHER STATION ISOLATED DUE TO TIDE WET SNW OBS SECURED BKN V SCT BRKS N SCT V BKN CLR W SFC VSBY 1 1/4 SC BANK NW FROPA HUR COND 1 SET WNDSHFT 40 ROTOR CLDS NW RF8 SCSL W LOWEST PRES 946 CCSL N-E OCNL SW- RDGS OBSCD W-N BD5 KOCTY FEW CUFRA F ALG RIVER T 6NE MOVG NE TIDE MINUS 001 UNCONFIRMED TORNADO 5W MVMT UNKN TIDE PLUS 005 CBMAM 5NW MOVG NE HAZE LYR ALQDS CB ALQDS NOSPL ACSL ALQDS STMG ALQDS BLDG CU W F DSPTG H1 F MOVG IN FM SW CC OVHD CLRG NW FQT LTGICCC IN CB NE-S CLR ALF MOON DMLY VSBL INTMT L- HIR CLDS VSBL SE COMMUNICATION FAILURE FEW STFRA SCUD DSNT ALQDS SWU ALQDS LLWS ALERT AURBO ARPT CLSD SNW RMVL T E LTL MVMT RVRNO ROTATION OBSERVED IN CLOUDS WND GUSTY VIRGA SE-S RAINBOW E TORNADO WENT UP INTO THE CLOUDS RW+ OCNLY RW- LRG CB WITH OVERSHOOTING TOP DSNT NE LSRPSRIR20P DRY WND DIRECTION EST DUE TO BIRD ON WND IRLSR17P WET VANE SANDED CONTRAILS OVC PTLY THN ST ALG RIVER SW-W THIN ICE PELLET LYR ON GRND LUNAR HALO LWR SCUD ALG HILLS E & W APRNT HVY RW S-SW CLDS TPG MTNS NE-SE POWER OUT AT STATION AT 12Z HVY FRST D ALF NMRS GUSTS 35 KTS PST HR LTG NOT OBSVD NO APRNT LTG CLD BNK NW TOT RN 767 F BLO SMT DARK S SKY DARK SW-NW DSPTG CU ALQDS T 2W STNRY PSBL CB DSNT SE HRZN DSNT LTG E AT 2028Z WT 28 SEAS 3-5 HALO AND PARHELION WALL CLOUD DVLPG SW OCTY AC FLOCCUS W-NW LK TEMP 66 TWO WELL DEFINED SC BANDS DSNT NW-NE AND DSNT SW-SE

Looks like the rain chances disappeared for Sunday in my area. 3 weeks now without a drop.

00Z EPS now has all members, 100% with reversals. GEFS still sitting around 70% AI ENS climbing after not being interested, close to 80% now, but I don't know how well that does with events like this either.

Me neither. It's beautiful, and I'm loving it! On the flip side, the crazy southwest desert weather continues as well. While this might be somewhat overdone (the ECMWF) every global model shows at least 2" of rain for the Phoenix metro area between now and next Monday night.

0Z EPS has a storm signal in about 8 days