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I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy.

Pretty sure that was the year.

We live on the coastal plain for the most part.

Anyway, trof looks a little sharper so far on the GFS

we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds

Trick in that solution will be whether there's a pulse of sufficiently low enough DPs loading into NYS-VT-NH ... even if we can get that down to say ALB-EEN-MHT that may be close enough. There's a front coming through around 00z Saturday and between 3- 9Z overnight there's CAA albeit not aggressive. I wouldn't normally comment on a marginal set up like that for ZR, just because it's a fragile set up and it's got 60 to 72 hours to go... however, there's a distinct rising PP across upstate NY-ME and it's nosing around the terrain and bowing the isobars into a dammed look...That means like today, a sneaky ageo flow is susceptible of getting going - if/when coming out of even a -1C DP source that's good for ice at least down to the border towns. edit I see NAM cute pink paint is indeed into interior even down here. CNE obviously higher odds

'Dumb' plants. Easily tricked into thinking its Spring lol.

I don't remember that winter particularly well although I think there was a day we had a good, solid glaze and after school we played on a grassy hill which had become a sledding hill, no hills needed. I would have loved to see the meltdown on this forum in January. KBOS had 34" of snow, a -8 anomaly and ended the month with 3" otg (was at 16 mid-month). Jan 15-21 had lows at Logan below 10 every day, yet somehow lost 8" of snow, because two of those days had highs in the mid-40s and 1" of +RA. And if that's not bad enough, during that same time period ORH went -12 1 -1 45 -2 35 -8 4 Imagine someone telling you that over the course of four days, ORH was going to be below 0 every night, two days won't climb out of the singles, and, oh, yeah, there was going to be an inch of rain. Toaster sales must have been through the roof.

Panic room open for some, jumpers are standing in the door.

Holy ridge

I believe GEPS outscore GEFS. I wonder why we pay as much attention to the GEFS as we do.

No lol

I generally agree with this.

I'm guessing 18z models and things I don't have access to upped the moisture a bit. Just looked at the NWS updated forecast, and we're forecast to get 0.39" WE and about 4.5 inches of snow, and we are a little too far north/too low to be in the watch area. No updated discussion- I've noticed that AFDs are not updated as often as they used to be, guessing staffing is the issue. So we'll see. In any case, I expect the Post's forecast of 1-12 inches will verify.

I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them?

There was some crazy weather in the Northeast and eastern Ohio valley that winter for sure

If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable. Can you imagine?

Americanwx psychiatrist we got one here for ya. Ji is patient zero

I remember one storm that winter, morning started at 2 degrees with snizzle, just enough to coat the roads, temps warmed up into the 20s and it turned to heavy rain. Main roads were a skating rink, overnight it turned back to snow with temps dropping. Nasty night to drive.

I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.????

I've got a WSW for 5-10" I see nothing on any model that says that'd come close to verifying.

62 was my high

75 for a high here. House got a little warm so I reversed the ceiling fan and turned up the speed. Feels better now.

Officer LaPorta are you OK?’ Uxbridge police officer killed in crash when weather turned road into ‘ice rink.’ https://www.wcvb.com/article/route-146-uxbridge-massachusetts-crash-police-cruiser/69932695

1995-96 was my first year measuring snow imby and it was quite a doozy of CAD. Now, again, remember CAD is different here in the Lakes. No matter how good or bad a pattern is, flakes will be in the air. Its not literally bone dry, but in my lifetime by far it was the biggest screwzone Ive ever been in. The Chicago-Detroit corridor just missed everything of relevance that year. ORD had 23.9" and DTW 27.6". The early Feb coldsnap saw days of below zero weather with zero snow on the ground, very rare for here. Totals couldve been even worse if not for a nice March 20th snowstorm (5.8" DTW, 7.0" mby, forecast was 1-3"). Weve had so many great winters since I dont really think about it, and in fact, I would NEVER even give it a thought if not for always seeing it mentioned on here . And almost certainly re: Philly. Obviously the avg much less to begin with, but a Nina winter is almost always better here anyway. Since 1995-96, Nina snowfalls ------ PHL -- DTW 1995-96: 65.5” – 27.6” 1998-99: 12.5” – 49.5” 1999-00: 21.0” – 23.7” 2000-01: 26.1” – 39.0” 2005-06: 19.5” – 36.3” 2008-09: 22.9” – 65.7” 2011-12: 4.0” – 26.0” 2016-17: 15.0” – 37.9” 2017-18: 29.8” – 61.0” 2020-21: 23.9” – 44.9” 2021-22: 12.9” – 47.1” 2022-23: 0.3” – 37.1” 2025-26: 4.8” – 17.8” *thru Jan 7