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ya Euro op and AIFS are a solid 2-4" area wide.. Not as juiced as 6z or GFS..

That might not be too bad up here. I think that’s the pattern we had was it in 2023? We ended up with close to 100 inches here but with a lot of wet, heavy storms where we were right on the edge and you were raining down south

12z Euro Op is similar

Gfs / Icon seem to have the better idea overall . Makes sense

Loading early Tuesday now, it's colder and SE, maybe a hair less amped..

But if I close the shades, then won’t I be unable to look at the 2 to 4 inches of snow that will fall on Tuesday?

Probably for him

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

WB isn’t loading, good for all? Same as 6z?

Ya AIFS ticked SE then IVT into Maine

12z Euro looks good.

This would be the death knells for Winter 2025-2026. Prime time when temps are the coldest, and there is a trough in west Canada and a dip in the jet stream across west/central US, and a ridge over east US. And remember, this is a smoothed ensemble mean. Once we get closer to the date, it won't be as smoothed and the differences between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east would likely be much greater. While the -NAO continues to improve, all other teleconnections remain where we don't want it, including a deepening -PNA. Without help from the PNA and the pacific, the -NAO will be almost meaningless

Yeah PWM love there. Still like the look here overall.

Not sure I get the reasoning behind why an inch of snow is not possible in this scenario

I have never heard of ever needing a special Jebman-issued STATE OF THE SNOWPACK report for a place such as Palisades Tahoe. STATE OF THE SNOWPACK Issued Sat 9.12am local PST 20 DEC 2025 It's true I am no veteran of the Tahoe Resort. But never in my born days have I ever seen the Infamy at Tahoe, at the 8200-foot Scope level, that I witnessed today. Several inches of near-clear SLUSH! I had to ask myself, is this the Mid Atlantic with Lucy doing her usual, or could it truly be Palisades Tahoe stuck in a super Interglacial? This, is FAR WORSE than the Ravens losing every game for five seasons, even with all of the best acquisitions they could ever get!! What did they get last night at Tahoe, white meteors? I have seen all their cameras which now work. Absolute Bedlam. Grass. Bushes. This looks like July at the Resort. Might as well have hikes and mountain bike races all "winter". I was horrified. There are a few places they tried so hard to develop something to ski on with artificial snow, but it has obviously been so damn mild right up to now, that the state of the non-existent snowpack is a Mean One, and Nature has been and is one hell of a ferocious Grinch! Christmas is five days away, and I am sorry to say Tahoe will have a Green Christmas! Or Brown. Anything but white. There is no Christmas miracle this year. Even Santa is staying away. The low tide obstacles would rip up his ski runners on his famed sled. Skiers don't know what to do! Some are so desperate for snow they are going to Antarctica! Hey, they got mountains! They got snow too. It's just a little bit colder than they are used to lol. The State of the Snowpack at Palisades Tahoe is something hellishly worse than horrible right now. Even the storms are rainy or sloppy slush snow. And the temps are bad, 35 degrees? At 8000 feet? There is no snowpack at Palisades. I don't even know why I try. I don't even know why I care. It's all for nought. I never ever even imagined in my worst nightmares, a fate such as this for poor Tahoe, a snowless wasteland that can't even hit 32 degrees at night with a megastorm with 14 inches of water, that's gonna all fall as pure water, for a week. The Palisades may all get washed away by New Years.

EuroAI really likes SW ME.

Opposite here. When it slotted in between the winds were fierce. There was at one point a downpour that came through and it was a legit tropical storm.

Pray this fades over time:

22, 96, 84

Nationally, the hottest Christmas in modern history

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO,i know last Jan was a WQBO?

Not to mention, being December 23rd it will be practically the best sun angle possible, especially at night.

Columbia east — 25.4° morning low. Noon 33°.

Tough to buy the GFS at this point, but something to watch....for now, consider that the spiked-eggnog outcome.