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That 68 wind guest should be 28:for Harrisburg, haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE: For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one! These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history. Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters:

Ask the White House...

Yes. That would be better. The instrument details mentioned by @chubbs could still play a role at some sites.

BDL hit 80 yesterday. 70 here currently. Rapid green-up underway. Just saw some forsythia really starting to pop on my walk.

Nice, been there a couple times. It’s worth it for the experience. Kenwood is another spot, though I gotta think the homeowners get annoyed sometimes lol. One of my weird hobbies is trying to predict the time based on the moon phase and location in the sky. The moonset of what looks like a 10-11pm moon phase lines up with those predawn pics.

MOS WHACK A MOLE I've learned way way too much about this over the last couple months so now you get to also. If you ever wonder why a new version of the GFS is in training forever it's MOS, it is always MOS MOS is basically not “an equation.” It’s a bloated empire of site-by-site statistical band-aids. At one station like MDT, a single MOS package can involve hundreds to over a thousand equations once you break out forecast hour, variable, and category thresholds. Then double it for warm vs. cool season. Now spread that across 2,000 sites and multiple guidance systems, and you’re dealing with millions of regression equations. So when model physics gets changed upstream, MDL doesn’t get a fun little tune-up. They get to play nationwide statistical whack-a-mole because half their bias-correction patchwork may now be off. That’s the whole game. MY next little project until I recover from winter storm data burnout is one I'm almost halfway through. A fun little deep dive into the various MOS for the the GFS, NAM, HRRR, NBM and a 10 year (8 year for NBM);statistical analysis of forcasting skill by them for KMDT using about 25 metrics from NWS and Research Papers for every variable that can be seen, computer, derived from data record of KMDT. And think. This skill is after a couple thousand linear regression equations to brow beat NAMs drunken benders Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?

March stats are in from Lanco: There were certainly more "ups" than "downs" on the wild March 2026 temp rollercoaster, and those "ups" were also much more significant than the "downs." As a result, it concluded as the 8th-warmest March on record.

Was full on spring the last 24 hours, birds chirping, crocus and hellebores popping along with the dews, an altogether different smell out there. Was nice. Anyway sun's gone. We cloudy

Ironically enough, the MJO actually spend a lot of time in phase 8 the latter half of the month.

looking good for another 2" soaker

Highly recommend going out and doing this at least once in your life. While I think the cherry blossoms are otherwise overhyped and overdone; if you manage to get there early in the morning to watch deep night fade into morning's glow it is a magical experience.

Went on an adventure to see the cherry blossoms last weekend in DC. Started by waking up at 3am to get there early enough to get shots of the moon sinking over the horizon, of which, I couldn't be happier with. By 5am first light started to appear and with it the crowds. Pulses of people streamed onto the walkways. I went around the loop for sunrise. Got some shots along the way, and arguably my best ones of the day. Finally, the sun began to breach the DC skyline. At the end I was out of DC by 8am. Great experience, and huge thanks to my Dad for driving me in and finding parking.

Likely early start to the monsoon. Especially with a developing nino. Could put a lid on the heat dome in the SW limiting heat ejections. How much that effects us here, I’m not sure. .

Yeah this region despite being very warm in March was still shielded from the crazy +10 to +20 departures over 70 percent of the country. It's going to take a Pac NW style summer ridge to wake people up. Unfortunately we need to see 110-120F temperatures over multiple days that will shut the grid down for people to get a clue.

April 1 1882: A record high of 82 degrees is set at Minneapolis. Note: That record was eclipsed in 2015 with a temp of 84. For Wednesday, April 1, 2026 1912 - A tornado with incredible velocity ripped into downtown Houston, TX, breaking the water table and giving the city its first natural waterspout. (The Weather Channel) 1923 - Residents in the eastern U.S. awoke on "April Fool's Day" to bitterly cold temperatures. The mercury plunged to -34 degrees at Bergland MI and to 16 degrees in Georgia. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Forty-five cities across the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 37 degrees at Apalachicola FL, 34 degrees at Jacksonville FL, 30 degrees at Macon GA, and 22 degrees at Knoxville TN, were records for April. (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - A tornado touched down briefly during a snow squall on the south shore of White Fish Bay (six miles northwest of Bay Mills WI). A mobile home was unroofed and insulation was sucked from its walls. (The Weather Channel) 1988 - A powerful spring storm produced 34 inches of snow at Rye CO, 22 inches at Timpas OK, 19 inches at Sharon Springs KS, and up to 35 inches in New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms associated with the same storm spawned a tornado which caused 2.5 million dollars damage at East Mountain TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Up to six inches of snow blanketed the Adirondacks of eastern New York State and the Saint Lawrence Valley of Vermont. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Colorado Rockies. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Texas, from southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to southern Georgia, and from northern South Carolina to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado at Evergreen AL, and there were more than eighty reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail north of Bastrop LA, and produced damaging winds which injured one person west of Meridian MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

The craziest thing is we were the cooler region compared to most of the country. The amount of +10-15 readings is insane. If that happens during June or July then it's gonna get ugly.

Starting off with a bang. WSW along the shore, with another similar hit Fri-Sat.

Torch !!

3 airmasses in place right now. The wedge in the east, warm sector in SNE/CRV, and then the CAA moving south through upstate NY and VT.

MAGA Make Analysis Great Again.

On Long Island rain changed to wet snow..no accumulation..Boston got 2 feet. For NYC metro it was a horrible winter.

anyone see the cansips for winter lol

Followup: -Fairbanks ended up with its coldest DJFM on record with it at -13.4, colder than the previous coldest of -13.0, set in 1965-6. This is ~11F BN! -Fairbanks had its coldest March on record by a large margin, -9.0F. The prior coldest was -6.6F, set in 1959! -Anchorage had its coldest March on record with +13.4F. The prior coldest was +14.0, set in 1959. Fairbanks and Barrow data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg Anchorage data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afc Despite most of Alaska being quite cold relative to normal, the Arctic (80+N) had one of its warmest Marches on record: It turns out that Barrow, whose normals are ~11F colder than Fairbanks in DJFM, was warmer than Fairbanks for DJFM by ~4F averaged out as they averaged ~4F warmer than their normal! Barrow was warmer than Fairbanks in Dec, Jan, and March this winter.