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Punt until 2028

No worries, I am not sure why they decided to have two updating values. Always trying to improve is an important aspect in life. Criticisms are an important part in this field as it helps build ideas and potentially new technologies for us all to use and benefit from.

Proxy! Snowfall seasons for the E Coast in very strong El Nino are hit or miss. No very strong El Nino has resulted in a blockbuster snow winter so far, at least for New England! One thing about very strong El Ninos, some fcsts for what happens in parts of the world have a high confidence. The 4 very strong El Ninos we have had since the 1950s, all have had suppressed ATLC hurr season and a mild CONUS winter. Active STJ and a wet srn tier also works. And everyone always thinks CA gets crushed w/ big rains and snows and the Pac NW is dry, However, in the 2015-16 event, CA underperformed big tine (prompting "endless drought" stupid hype) and the Pac NW was wet. Moral here? We have a limited dataset for very strong El Ninos, at least in the era where we can determine SSTs in the remote areas of the equatorial Pacific where it matters most, and given what happened in 2015-16, that suggests we have *not* seen the full range of what very strong El Ninos can do for sensible wx impacts around the globe simply b/c sample size is small. So if this El Nino ends up being the strongest on record, we may see some unexpected sensible wx emerge for parts of the globe, and given the non-linear nature of the Earth's system, it does not mean everything will be "worse" across the board. Higher temp anomalies end up impacting positive and negative feedbacks in various degrees and what ends up happening can be unexpected. Also, there are no less than a dozen other oscillations going on across the globe outside of ENSO, and we certainty have not seen every combo possible of then when very strong El Nino is occurring, so this can explain deviations. Yes, ENSO is among the strongest oscillations out there, but it does not occur in a vacuum! So maybe we will, esp. @CoastalWx, will be pleasantly surprised w/ frequent "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" snow vistas this coming winter! LOL. That being said, so far the ATLC hurr season is suppressed big time from the hostile upper-level conditions and the WPAC is much above avg (213% of Y-T-D ACE as of today), so that is working out as expected!

This is an EOF encompassed by several EOFs though (5 to be exact) so in some ways it does have multiple like many of the other indexes do just not the repetitiveness of one defining several different areas typically 2 EOFs exist per index. RONI hit 1.4, MEI hit 1.1 while SSTs showed roughly 2. You could make the argument of breaking down the east and west of SSTs as well as wind but since it still currently covers those regions I don't see how creating another EOF would improve the skill outside what we see. As 40/70 said it is strictly a metric for coupling within the tropics and I think it has done rather fine for virtually every Nino/Nina thus far. Again slow to show rapid changes but still shows when those changes occur. I would never put stock in one index to tell the whole story of what is going on whether it is SST, wind, OHC, OLR, etc. That is why the multivariate is an awesome tool NOAA could have done away with it when the old data was lost but there were many Meteorologists that reached out and wished to keep this going for reasons.

Looks like I ended the day with 1.29

That storm put down 1.4 inches of rain.

Check out what the HAFS A had cooked up!

Amazing shots!

Said bear. Didn't want to get too close.

Just got a deluge here in Exton. Sump pump going crazy.

This humidity is of the tropical variety.

I would like storms this time around.

Yeah hard pass on grizzlies . No thanks. I cannot imagine how much different life would be here if black bears were aggressive and predators. Everyone would have to be armed, ha.

I'll stick with local animals. A few from over the years.

Still no thanks on bears although they are cool. Ran into a huge grizzly in the Tetons some years back. Wasn't aggressive but just the size of it. It was doing exactly as you said, eating berries. It was actually crushing Berry trees by rolling.

Yeah that’s the only problems bear really get into… they’ll take out a whole coop or flock. I’m not sure I’ve heard of bear attacking chickens just free roaming… but that thing will get inside a coop and go nuts. First time ever my folks had a big bear in the woods behind the camp in Woodstock, CT.

Sorry to take away from the conversation of extreme weather we’re about to endure, for guidance on Mother Nature’s other challenges.

Misery mist humidity drizzle. Humidity literally drizzling from the sky.

As I said, bear are protected. ”Not pleased” is an understatement!

Today's Highs: TEB: 87 ACY: 86 EWR: 85 PHL: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 83 NYC: 83 JFK: 82 BLM: 81

neighbor has chickens. They have probably had 50 of them killed by raccoons, bear, fox, and coyote. the guy is a cop, and NH fish and game was not pleased when he shot and killed a bear that was attacking his coop. my house is like 300 yards away, and I have seen 1 bear (but plenty of bobcats and coyotes) in the time I’ve lived here.