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The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Down to 35

35 here with a stiff breeze.

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE.

4 to 10pm is mostly after sun set Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

So we are supposed to drive from Frederick to lower Delaware tomorrow evening. What is the thinking for that drive?

Berks resorts could really use this one. Hopefully, GFS is right about Sunday's whiff with the rain.

Looks better down here

Post the picture

Which models? The NAM has been the only one with funky high run to run variability. The Euro, GFS, HRRR have been steady as a rock with 0.30-0.50". Further a drier solution causes even more issues more likely due to a higher probability of it falling as freezing rain, at a rate that has maximum accretion unfortunately enough people are going to convince themselves it's not a big deal and end up with a totaled car, injuries, and putting unexcusable strain and risk on first responders. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

18z on top.

Unless we have a major Lucy rug pull, I’d say 2/3 of CT is nearly locked for low end warning snow

Sref much better

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

I basically checked out until late last night. This does seem like a setups that the NAM should do well in, with warm air punching north

Yeah, east of the ridge line is where they hold onto CAD longer than the rest of the county, so they typically have bigger impacts in ice storms. Vice versa upslope events favor west of the ridge line. We’re leaving NJ at 5a tomorrow to get out there for the week. At least it’ll turn cold next week after rain Sunday/Monday AM with upslope/snow chances.

I think anything that occurs during the day in Harrisburg is going to have a hard time accumulating on the roads especially if they pre-treat. My weather station hasn't been below freezing since the morning of Dec 22.

One factor to also consider for the swath of max totals is how wide is the band in reality. May end up a bit more narrow than what’s being shown via max QPF swath.

18z Herpes also came north

That was a Niño. This is a Niña.

Ya it was south

Nice move NE by eps

Hope still goof gor SWCT.

Absolutely, but I don’t think we get much zr accretion - it’s pretty rare here and kinda hard to do so I lean sleet or plain rain too heavy to freeze on contact. The wild card is kt kf really does go dry with precip - if so then zr is in the cards with light rates.

NE forum saying UKIE and Euro AI bumped north but no maps.