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  2. RedSky
    Heat wave first week of September lol
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall -PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to.
  4. MillvilleWx
    That was @katabatic and I!! That was one of the most surreal weather experiences of my life. That squall and the drive home are engrained in my memory bank. A phenomenal day of snow and fun. I would do it again in a heart beat! @katabatic is an amazing host!
  5. psv88
    Been a perfect week at fire island so far. Dry, sun and upper 70s
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023?
  7. Keith Central PA
    Strong Ninos are known for little hurricane activity and mild winters..it is what it is
  8. frd
  9. powderfreak
    That stuff is hard to fathom like a 5-story wall of water and mud moving through. No chance at survival.
  10. GaWx
    Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW. Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. I wonder if that’s real:
  11. Cobalt
  12. SouthCoastMA
    That was the most violent, fastest flash flood/avalanche I've ever seen on video
  13. forkyfork
    how can anyone live south of philadelphia and still be into snow? like trying to use grindr in saudi arabia
  14. TheDreamTraveler
    Kind of crazy it's almost September and this is how the season has looked so far lol
  15. weatherwiz
    Sounds like the Earthquake caused an avalanche and the snow/ice dumped into a river and caused a major blockage, allowing the water to build up and unfortunately cause the flooding. Heartbreaking. I can't imagine being in a situation like that, trying to run with essentially nowhere to go and not a chance to outrun it.
  16. Today
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't consider 2020 El Nino, but the other two I have as analogs....I am expecting a neutral PDO. I don't see what is outlandish about that in the most powerful El Nino in history.
  18. Chrisrotary12
    Earthquake caused an avalanche that transitioned into a flash flood?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    My view is it's definitely something to be mindful of and keep a very close vigil on, but it's too early to read too much into it.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think you are hugging analogs a bit too much. I know 2 of these were Weak Nino's but here's the last 3 El Nino Winters since 2016.
  21. GaWx
    The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27 1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31 0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30 1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32 0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32 1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33 0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40 0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43 1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42 0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43 1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter.
  23. Paleocene
    GFS not far behind.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't need to convince me of that...I just spent an entire weekend writing about it...but by the same token, you can't go on about how low of a correlation ENSO has this time of year in one post, then read too much into the current disconnect RE winter in the next.
  25. Brian5671
    might see something in the gulf but low odds overall. Kind of good we don't need a 10 inch rain fall lolz
  26. Brian5671
    models are unimpressive unless you're N and W
  27. Eskimo Joe
    ^I love my Tempest. Easy set up and hasn't let me down in almost a decade.
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