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My guess was 24" at our NNJ home, but only a guess due to the wind. Coming 15 cold days after the "JFK inaugural" storm, Feb 3-4 brought the deepest pack in NJ records, reaching 50"+ at 2 locations. The storm arrived on Friday evening and even with the weekend we had no school that Monday. NYC schools were closed the entire week. Closures that winter meant extended days in hot no-AC June.

ahh it hasn't felt that warm. It's been normal warm in my opinion

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting.

TIL where Kingwood is.

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind. Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way... If so, no. We don't do that around here - not very often anyway. EOF 1 and 2 swarms. In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester... In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson. Otherwise, that's apples to oranges for low LCL events. High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere. Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM). However, I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience. Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. So I could be wrong there. If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers. But there is one other option...hm. You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection that actually became severe ... sending warned cells through midriff ORH county ... It all passed off by noon with abrupt clearing. The warm front cold front wedge was then in place. By 1:30...full sun soared T over TD ... 86/73. An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...). It came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Ehhh - with severe I'll keep watching until morning of. Always surprises since storms are smaller scale than snowstorms generally.

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Nice weather! Not much more you could want in mid June. Enjoy! A sampling of the coolest NJ mins from this morning.

If this were winter Thursday would be getting a “time of death” post right about now.

Setups with off the charts wind shear tend to not really produce just because sufficient buoyancy tends to be limited. If setups of this magnitude had a tendency to produce, our average tornado numbers would be significantly higher. These very large hodographs with the veered llvls imply a great deal of llvl warm air advection, which is great, but not when its a theme through the entire troposphere. With this said, these setups always need to be closely watched and monitored because even one tornado or pocket of wind damage is likely disruptive to life/property. We'll have to see how much buoyancy we can develop but when 500mb temps are only progged to be ~-7C or -8C...big flag you aren't getting much in that department, particularly enough to provide parcels with additional acceleration once past the LFC.

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

Agree

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before? Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage. But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

48.2 for the low here, wonderful! Currently 63.3/54.0 at 10:30 am under partly cloudy skies. EDIT- close, but not near the record of 45 from 1985.

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here.

PTC 1 at 11am per NHC @WxWatcher007

Looks to be one of those classic days where if it is discrete and in the warm sector, its producing.

Updated morning AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. High pressure will keep cool and dry conditions in the region this morning. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for most with highest elevations in the Alleghenies staying in the 60s. A warm front lifting through the region combined with shortwave energy aloft, bring an increased risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in southern MD. To accommodate this risk, SPC has much of the Chesapeake Bay and portions of Southern MD in a marginal risk for severe weather overnight. Any convection will be elevated in nature, but adequate shear and lift may lead to gusty winds and hail within stronger storms.

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over.

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening. There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why.

I will add that even though he expects absolutely zero severe weather, he is anticipating a very windy Thursday PM with gusts to 40mph without storms.

I just had a brief shower that was not expected today. The NHC will begin issuing Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 at 11:00 AM Eastern time along the Texas/Louisiana Coast. Current track guidance keep the center passing to our S later this week. I've noticed that rain amounts has been increasing the last 24 hours for our SW Mountains into Haywood County.

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be - Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it! so here we go: whenever you see high arctan angles ... ex, .... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope like below, you have large +helicity where ... ...is located. Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride. Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations? That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer. ...as though that's even needed given the former constraints. my god I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

yeah happy to up here in the non-tornadic wind and flood zone