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Get ready for the NAM. It usually follows the SREFs. Wouldn't it be funny if somehow we get an advisory level event whenever we were totally out of it for days.

Can a brotha buy a NAM'ing please.

Start it up but it hard forecast right now

How was your step son feeling this morning before you shoed him off to school?

It’s NAM time. Let’s see if it can push west a little more from 6z.

The NAM at H5@15 is more robust out west

Nice to see a picture of you. How this went from talking about the weather. To negative comments on someone who didn't say anything negative to anyone. If you all stop I go away again. May only ask a question here and there.

NWS update this morning has most areas at 35% or higher for at least 6in. It’s kind of why I think they will roll a Winter Storm Watch out this afternoon.

I just be leery of the pivot point tho. This thing's going to move east but as it on whole crosses ~75 W longitude, it starts pivoting cyclonically... that's not a "stall" per se, but it does lengthen the time that a would-be moderate, albeit narrow band of production is caused to momentarily situate closer to the axis of rotation... probably southern VT/NH, then slides south while fading kind of thing.

lol, how do we get an ignore on quoting posters that we have on ignore? Asking for a friend.

where is the snowfall contest here ? The last one was fun

Wet ground matters because it increases conducivity. But then that becomes a factor of ground temperature which is still quite cold because of the snowpack. It's not nearly as much of a factor as it normally is

So, what about the weather?

I seriously think this guy hates snow he's always a downer . Every model could be showing a blizzard and he's gonna say" well because the butterfly's in China are flying upside down it's probably gonna rain but that's ok everyone's water tables will be good "

I feel like the GFS slowed backed the moisture up to the West as we got closer to the event, Euro did the best at showing the dry slot over Raleigh first and the heavier snow that fell through the upstate it picked up on that first. The Nam was all over the place and the GFS AI and Euro AI did the best at identifying the heaviest totals near CLT-Salisbury area. With in 18hrs the RAP and HRRR pretty much held course with the future radar, but a blend of GEFS and EPS is the way to go in my opinion and cut everything back a little bit with daytime snow in late Feb. It will be interesting to see how it plays out!

Yeah I dont think we jackpot but with the SREF this snowy it bodes well for us to get a minor-moderate event. I said it before Ill take a 3-6 type right now. This was never gonna be the big one for us so not upset we are missing it.

You mind quoting it? I can't find that post.

Thanks, but I didn't start with the negative comments on anyone.

I don’t think so. They realized the one they were going to put into production was bad. The MPAS versions are already scoring better verifications….

also did you notice that extreme amount in the dark grey on the GFS seems to be moving north each run now its in southern half of NJ it was down in tthe Del Marva a day or 2 ago ???

I think someone needs a timeout

The last time I saw a big shift like this with the SREF was in Jan 2016 with Jonas. Sref was the 1st model to trend northward with the storm two days out

Tides don’t seem very high but they’re not low either. 10’ tide in BOS harbor.

You don't know me and I don't care to know you.

I stuck up for you getting a hard time from people a few weeks ago, but this morning you’re bringing the heat upon yourself…