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Models are pretty lukewarm for this invest, but AI ensembles, especially the Euro AI, track it into the Caribbean. Shear is an issue across the basin, where it's been historically high in the last month.

Crazy rainfall totals down in Indiana. Pretty parched here and even worse to my north. 7.03” since June 1st 0.13” since August 1st

Again, asleep at the wheel. Here's a thread for Invest 92L, which seems poised to become a TD soon in the central Atlantic. Discuss here. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

I've been asleep at the wheel. We have a short lived TS in the central Atlantic. Creating a thread for posterity lol. Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 300 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure we have been monitoring well east-northeast of Bermuda over the past several days has become better defined today. A recent ASCAT pass revealed an area of 35-40 kt winds southeast of the slightly elongated and exposed center, within the region of convection. While the convective organization has degraded since earlier this morning, scatterometer data indicate that the system has achieved tropical storm status, and it likely reached that threshold earlier this morning. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Cristobal, with the initial intensity set to 40 kt. Cristobal is moving quickly eastward around 22 kt over marginally favorable sea surface temperatures near 25 C. The storm is currently positioned between a subtropical high to the south, and a ridge extending over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast. A turn toward the northeast, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and tonight as Cristobal moves along the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic ridge. Slow weakening is forecast during this period as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry mid-level air and stronger northerly wind shear. Cristobal is expected to be short-lived and dissipate on Thursday. The official NHC track and intensity forecasts lie near the middle of the consensus guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 36.7N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 37.4N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 38.5N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi

Miss near south

Trying to will the bow echo just far enough north to get the shelf cloud. What a run we're on.

This stretch of weather has been wonky. Feels like the pros have no real handle on this stuff other than yesterdays derecho

Looking for some understanding. Got dark here about 25 minutes ago on the far NW side of Chicago near Lincolnwood/Niles. Streetlights triggered, I assumed something was about to drop, checked the radar and nothing. Got brighter, lights go back off. Then about ten minutes later wife at the office in Northbrook area texts me that its 'night time dark out there' but nothing showed on the radar. Anyone have Skilling's phone number?

That spot two counties east of Indianapolis, where radar is estimating over a foot of rain, has been storming for 11 straight hours without a break, which is insane. Radar is now blowing up up with a bunch more to their nw.

Yeah…never claimed it was wrong.

They are real. It's gotten pretty crazy here. 1/4mile vis just from the rain. Flash Flood Warnings almost the entire eastern half of the state now expanding to the NE as this next bow moves in. Phones gone off 3 times for a FFE in the last 2 hours. We could definitively see 15 inch event totals in places(some already have over 10) if this bow tracks along this stalled outflow boundary. Hoping it washes out as it turns similar to yesterday. Its a freaking electric power washer non stop out there too. Still constant lightning. Crazy stuff. I'm officially flooding severely now. Barns taking water

I bet we see that delta continue to slowly shrink. 1982 actually ended up with a RONI that was higher than the ONI, which is likely why it's the only intense El Niño to average slightly -WPO. I don't expect us to get that far this year, as the ONI will remain somewhat higher, but I do think that the absolute RONI value will get higher than that Dec 1982 record of 2.4. I could see that RONI/ONI delta getting down to like .2 by winter.

I like that the RON/ONI delta seems to be closing a hair (.5 to .4)...I mentioned back in my blog earlier this summer that this will be key to salvaging a decent second half...I hedged towards a 2015-like middle ground (think 1997 canonical /2023 MC opposite ends of spectrum), and still like that....at least.

Yea, I get what you were saying...no way will December be similar. I am sure to explain how I derive my seasonal composite members before introducing the map, in addition to also giving a composite list for each individual month, so I agree that a measure of preemptive context is important.

Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm

radar est rain totals east of indy are already extreme this run ends with the pump very much still primed for more mcs activity very dialed in

I don't disagree that it could be viable, especially if strong blocking were to develop. I was just referring to the entire period. I think a back-loaded scenario is plausible. So is a one notable storm-type idea.

Yeah the timing really sucks -- clear skies today but clouds come in tonight. We have a problem with the wildfire smoke right now too, but I see HRRR has it clearing out just in time for the meteor shower tonight. So we'll have to see what happens with the showers/storms for overnight tonight. Hopefully there will be a period or two in which it's just partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy so we can see some meteors here tonight. I wish you good luck in seeing some tonight. It is frustrating that we have the clouds to deal with tonight because the same thing happened on the peak night of the Geminid meteor shower in December, which of course is the other big meteor shower. It's frustrating when we have little to no moon interference for viewing but clouds mess it up. Bad luck with these meteor showers lately.

1.2 total here. Just when I think it's going to dry out, the storms return

C Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

Impressive winds in Watseka

Yeah I woke up and thought what?? Big MCS over by Chicago and FFE down south. Chicago wave according to SPC should turn south but we'll see. Warned for 60 right now.

It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.

Ended up with .5 from yesterday afternoon, and another .4 late last night. So .9 total on a day that I started with not even a chance showing in my forecast. And this was after days of missed chances with very little to show. I think that is part of what makes weather fun.