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welcome back lol

I don’t want too much to change either. But if I had to guess, final track will be shifted about 100 miles north of what the entire model average is now. Maybe 150. Might put our forum in the jack, and maybe even flirt with mixing across the southern half. I’ve seen so many big ones shift north like this.

With any of these bigger storms I always get flashbacks to the January 2016 storm, nice front end thump, going to bed with heavy snow falling and over 8" on the ground. Then waking up in a panic because of the sound of torrential rain. I had not shoveled anything yet and there is a drain near the back door that stops water from getting into the house that needed to be cleared. So I half awake stumble out the back door to be greeted to the most hellaciously heavy sleet I have ever seen. Ended up with 10" of snow, 2" of sleet on top of that and then 1" of snow to cap it off from the all day flurries we got while the western shore was beaten down with heavy snow. I learned from that storm never trust the deformation band will eventually make it to the Eastern Shore because by the time it does the storm is pulling away and that band is long gone. Also, as nice as it is to have a detached garage behind the house, it is hell to dig out. Probably one of my least favorite major snow events...

I might be able to make Thursday but already have a commitment on Friday. Maybe I can get @Scraff to carpool with me.

Agree on both comments. This setup is different. Euro has been trending more amped and weaker HP

Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better

Here's my 2 cents... Climatology speaking, there will be significant icing after Heavy Snow this weekend. The question is where does that ICE line set up and when? Even up here in southern VA, its difficult to get a pure snowstorm like this one without having some icing. Honestly, Its hard to not get upset with the models trending north but in the overall scheme, there is absolutely nothing we can change about that. They could trend back south tomorrow and Thursday. Its hard to say. But whether its snow or ice or both. The Carolinas and Virginia are getting this Winter Storm. Just a matter of how much we are getting is the ? Let's see what 0z and 6z show.

Sorry about that.

Fishel said it perfectly. I completely agree with his line of thinking. .

Not exactly...Just to clarify the terminology a bit — when meteorologists talk about a ‘dry slot,’ they’re referring to the dry conveyor belt wrapping into a mature cyclone. It’s a broad synoptic feature that shows up in global mass fields and satellite water‑vapor imagery. It’s not something the NAM typically resolves well at the end of its run, and the model actually has close to an inch of QPF down by midnight Fri/Sat, which suggests a fully intact precip shield rather than a dry slot intrusion. About the analogs I posted earlier: When I mentioned Feb 2003 and Dec 2013, I was referring to the H5 pattern and overall pattern structure, not the exact surface impacts. Those events share several large‑scale similarities with this setup: 1) A deep, well‑established Arctic air mass 2) A southern‑stream disturbance ejecting from the Southwest 3)Strong overrunning and isentropic lift 4) A marginal warm layer aloft that cools with time 5) A broad, long‑duration precipitation shield Dec 2013 did produce some icing, but the event was actually sleet‑dominant because the warm nose was shallow and weak. That’s why it’s a useful analog here — the thermodynamic structure favored sleet, and this system is showing a similar profile so far. So the comparison isn’t about matching the exact precipitation type outcome — it’s about the larger‑scale pattern and storm mechanics. From that perspective, the analogs line up pretty well.

We don't talk bad about the NAM when it shows something we want

Bullseye over Sleeping in Tolland

Unless there was some unconventional cooling conditions that night, and assuming the -34 reading is correct, places like Sandyston and Walpack would had to have been -40 or better. I'm not sure there is any real dataset for out that way that far back. It would be interesting to pour through old newspaper articles or local journals if any still exist, to see if there is any reference to it. For tonight, I'm hovering between 7 and 8 above, and my high today was only 18. I'm thinking I'll make it to 0 or a shade below by morning. I'm changing out weather stations, and plan to use the 24-hour reprieve from the cold tomorrow or Thursday to get it done. Fingers crossed the new one works well.

Eric Webb is currently live on Fox Weather. I wonder if he will acknowledge the north shift

Ooo - how do I make this with my son?

Ok peeps, time for 0z and forget about the Euro. NAM is running, onward and forward we go…

High of 27 15 at 9PM 10 will probably be the low. Burning some of that wood I split yesterday. Toasty in here. Heat pump on vacay.

And I've named them: TWC The Weather Crap

It is my 4th season back in NC. Much appreciation to the SE crew! Everything is still on the table. edit: I remember being in NC in the Walmart in 2008 when they just got tv screens that showed the weather above the check outs. We were forecasted to get 12-16" and the screen flashed to 33 degrees and rain while I waited in line to buy my ice cream. F that

Seems like the seasonal trend has been for these northern stream vorts to deamplify, miss phasing. But this is a different setup so we’ll see. Whoever gets the freezing rain is absolutely screwed with cold air on the backside.

Here is latest NBM National Blend

I found another fellow weather nerd in chemistry class today. we talked about severe wx ingredients while we finished our periodic table and electron configuration lab today. he has his own FB weather page. I went back to community college and we are aiming for the same degree (meteorology) after we transfer

17/-2 here Definitely cold either way lol

The Weather Channel has named this storm. It's called Winter Storm Fern.