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You're drunk.

And I said standing there, "I Don't Know HOW, but I GUARANTEE that Peyton Manning will CHOKE!" And He DID!!

3k especially

Nam comes in early either temps below freezing. Too bad its the nam

nam looks tasty for saturday

Little bit more of the vorticity south which might help pull it further south.

Backside much further west than 18z GFS and west of 18z NAM. Hard to see where it's going yet tho

i think we'll be on IV, whenever it happens... I - Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011 II - Jan 31-Feb 2, 2015 III - Feb 1-3, 2022

The NAM has fucked me over way too many times to be relied in the long range.

Raining .

Nam comin in looks better than 18z via Saturday snows

Believe the NAM might be better than its 18z counterpart for Saturday

Will also +1 @katabatic - we met up for dinner in Deep Creek a few winters back…great guy and has a genuine love of weather. Enjoy the chase NA101!

Yup..backside of the trof is def further west. Hope it means better things down the road

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though.

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=500relvort&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2021012700 This site has a reanalysis of the 2014 storm talked about, and many others if anyone is interested. Menus take a minute to figure out but a lot of great storms to look at on there.

I can just hear the Pokémon evolving music with this...lol (iykyk)

NAM is coming in further west.

Yeah it did, I was kinda pissed when that one skunked my area, but that didn’t last. The next storm alone more than made up for the entire first half of winter, then we all know what happened. That truly was a once in a lifetime winter. Anyways, how are you feeling about this one? I like where we are at with this. There is a decent amount of support for a moderate event right now on guidance, with some upside if things break right.

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Hes absolutely right. The Jan 24th event was the big system in the mid-range...id say about 120hrs +/- 20 hrs, somewhere in that region, it was being modeled as a big dog 12-16"+ event region wide on multiple models, then it fizzled and turned to shit, somewhat. @George001 remembers. I know this stops at Jan 27, but that storm didn't even exist at this point, it was all the first system Jan 24th. I dont have much saved from that event but heres one run.

All snow in northern Macon county. Hopefully I can pick up an inch tonight. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

Yes the big blizzard shown was very likely unrealistic but wouldn’t count out a SECS just yet.