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Surface still trying to catch up to upper level conditions it also shows up as rain.

2/21 00z GEFS Total QPF Mean 2/22 - 2/23-24 Now 10:1

2” of exceptionally dense snow.

I don't mind a tick back. Some of the more tucked solutions, like ukie start to bring ptype issues into play, and I don't like that. The logic is always that you make up for it on the back end,but where I live, you usually don't.

Yea it’s not like the lower qpf models are showing huge totals south but less here they aren’t showing 2 inch liquid anywhere which is hard to buy in this setup.

00z GEFS mean snow is 6"-10" east of US 15.

So sorry about the loss of your mom. WX/PT

I agree and I totally understand most folks hand wringing over (potentially) missing out on the 24"+ bullseye, but considering only the GFS had us getting a little coastal precip 48 hours ago to where we are now?? That's a big W already for this storm whatever the outcome. It's been really fun watching all the west ticks to the GFS and as nut and blizz pointed out, we may not be down with the west ticks yet.

True. Nothing has compared to it since.

all about the trends....even if drunk. It wobbled west, but it still was west. speaking of wobbling....I'm wobblin off to bed. Hoping for some fun in the morning before the chainsaws come out to start my woodcutting season. Gnight kids.

Sobering up after a holiday in Bermuda

Thank you. Hopefully Long Beach gets the jackpot.

A few important aspects to keep in mind: - There is no human intervention in that dataset. The underlying NWS NDFD forecast is applied to the WPC super ensemble data and does adjust the statistical spectrum a bit, but this is done automatically. - There may be time lagging affecting the low end members of the super ensemble, with various inputs possibly being earlier model cycles. - The above being said, given the extreme top end of the spectrum which we can see with the GFS (and many GEFS members) and NAM, those top end 90th percentile amounts are physically plausible, and again, automatically derived (with a ratio applied I believe). - There is certainly a good deal less spread now than earlier today, but you'll still have some ensemble members that have much lower QPF at this range (and some of these may be from earlier cycles, as noted above). For this reason, the 10th percentile low end amount undeniably seems ridiculous given the extreme top end amounts, but in this case, the 10th percentile is not completely unreasonable. As spread decreases, that will most certainly come up on subsequent runs. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Someone in one of the storm event threads mentioned the St. Pat's storm in March 2014 (I think @yoda did, or maybe it was another March storm he meant?). While I totally get the concern about temperatures at the start of this upcoming event, I have to think that if we get the rates that the models are indicating, and with still a fair amount occurring late day and overnight, we should still accumulate a decent amount here. For some perspective, here's how that St. Pat's storm looked at DCA for the week leading into it (date, max temp, min temp, average temp, temp departure, HDD, CDD, precip, snow, snow depth). Notice how warm it was most of the days before, plus this was ~3 weeks LATER than where we are now. 2014-03-10 60 37 48.5 6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-11 67 41 54.0 11.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-12 67 31 49.0 6.0 16 0 0.10 0.0 0 2014-03-13 33 20 26.5 -16.8 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-14 55 22 38.5 -5.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-15 66 39 52.5 8.6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-16 45 26 35.5 -8.7 29 0 0.19 4.9 0 2014-03-17 31 24 27.5 -17.0 37 0 0.27 3.2 7

If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.

And a few shots of vodka...AND huggin the Euro

That would be +RASN

Ukie is always wonky for some reason with its precip output In the January storm it kept having that snow hole over nyc

Some nonsense about telleconnections not being right for a big storm

As a SJ native I think you are about to get crushed '78, '79, '83, '96, '03 style! Don't worry about March '01 lol. Models much better now.

Wow, 00z GFS very noticeable tick back...of course, right as I go apeshit on my call.

Very sorry for your loss my condolences to You and your family

yep. Icon did as well. staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough). If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting. trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west.

There is not a single model showing less than 12" for me. Mean average is 20". That's incredible.

UKMET