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I suspect that it will take a change on the ECMWF to shake up the current thinking. The 6z GFS might be a plausible "best case" (if one likes snow). None of last night's EPS members had anything like it, though. A single member had 3" in NYC. The 0z RGEM had something similar though it backed off somewhat at 6z. There's just enough support on the guidance to suggest a snowier solution remains possible. Maybe the AI models will come out on top. Hopefully, over time, the AI models will improve their skill and become an important forecasting tool.

That would be solid advisory level snowfall for Nrn Litchfield HRRR gone wild

Agreed. Not sure if it’s rain, but it might be slop for a bit. The overnight runs definitely came west, but in the process, we’ve steadily lost dynamics. So while it’s closer, there is definitely still a legitimate ceiling. Assuming this doesn’t escape east over the next two days, and we do get a system, I’d be surprised if anyone got 6” of snow, just kind of has that look of a middle of the road advisory event

HRRR has 1-3 inches for NYC tomorrow

MJO will be flying through phase 7 like you said.

I do think rates will over perform somewhere and there will be a surprise, in a narrow band. Just impossible to nail down where until Sunday

I’ve “taught” a lot of really bright kids over the years, and I imagine @bncho would be one of the ones that when I was at the board struggling through a particularly tough math problem, I’d finally say, “Hey, bncho, give me a hint.”

stackin'^

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side.

Makes sense. Kind of what I was thinking. Thanks

It’s sunny and cold today with high temperatures close to freezing. Light snow should begin tomorrow morning and last for a few hours from late morning through early afternoon. Roads should be mainly wet with temperatures just above freezing in most spots. There could be some minor accumulations of up to 1" in some higher spots of NW Chesco. We turn even colder with temperatures remaining below freezing from tomorrow afternoon through at least Thursday morning. We will moderate a bit by next weekend before the coldest weather of the season so far arrives to close out the final week of January.

I'll take it, but I've never seen a system like this with snowfall inland. More typical of a coastal snowfall signature.

Unless the winds are out of the SE, those temps don’t make sense to me. .

12z HRRR kuchera snowmap for tomorrow .

It’s sunny and cold today with high temperatures close to freezing. Light snow should begin tomorrow morning and last for a few hours from late morning through early afternoon. Roads should be mainly wet with temperatures just above freezing in most spots. There could be some minor accumulations of up to 1" in some higher spots of NW Chesco. We turn even colder with temperatures remaining below freezing from tomorrow afternoon through at least Thursday morning. We will moderate a bit by next weekend before the coldest weather of the season so far arrives to close out the final week of January.

I love how over the last 48 hours RAH went from “temps should not be an issue” to “temps are the issue”

It’s a product of this being closer. I do think some precip may be used to cool the airmass a bit. I’d like to see this more meaty.

Had a low of 7 this morning. Glad the wind has died down.

Going with a storm total of around 16" IMBY. Very scenic out there. I'd imagine the lake is rapidly building ice cover... hopefully we can maintain some open water.

Low of 19 Swamp refroze quickly. Tide is way out.

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform… I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude… La Niña and the calendar reigns… Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum. If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during next two weeks. This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well.

No idea either but go bills!

Sharp cutoffs are problematic for widespread snows, especially with dry air in place. It'll be possible to go from 2-3 inches to zilch in twenty miles or less. Low expectations. It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air.

This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really.

12z HRRR has a solid advisory level event north of the immediate Philly metro tomorrow. Even pushes warning criteria in parts of northern NJ.