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Pattern is loaded next week and we don’t have to worry about the issues from this week

i said this earlier.. this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back

Temp never got above 11 during daylight (midnight it was 25) and snow fell throughout the day. Total was nearly 6". Nice event and currently just 8 outside with wind continuing.

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend. As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time. Sometimes even extreme. And the ensembles have as well. Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

Yeah. I’m definitely it buying anything for my area, unless something drastic changes. further east could still get something.

A chilly 19.8/6.7 at 5:30 pm. WNW 13 gusting to 28 mph winds driving WC down to 7 and 2.

The AIFS not wavering and AIFS-Ensemble also upping the ante for at least the eastern shore should raise some eyebrows for Sunday. This is typically when you have to start paying closer attention. We are getting inside 72 hrs.

Gfs trending to the euro in the mid to long range with cold and snowy weather

Gfs trending to the euro in the mid to long range with cold and snowy weather

Happy Birthday!

No mention.

I guess they are wondering why there's so much difference in American vs foreign modeling and can't figure anything else out to do.

Those things looked damned tasty!! Stouts at this time of year are perfect!

Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check.

Anyone want to comment on the ROFLMAO model? Pummeled, mauled, raked. Get your Jebman shovels ready. We’ll be diggin for days. PS—those BA stouts definitely did a number on me.

You mean you don’t like it when it’s below freezing, windy, and cloudy with no snow?

I see the pile at the bottom of the cliff is growing Seems like a good time to post this old people winter folklore I found while looking for JB's weenie stages of heartbreak for @RaleighNC This probably has just as much truth as the GFS

Unless it shows a crush job. Then it's awesome. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Do tell Luke.

Fodder, but that’s one tasty Reggie

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

Gfs and gefs also. Slowly.

Lol I get severe whiplash reading through these pages. Still worth watching for a moderate event but obviously a big hit looks off the table. Still concerning EC wants nothing to do with it hopefully some kind of agreement at 00Z.

Typical. GFS is an awful model both ways

Imma read the latest AFD from Mount Holly- I'm positive they are going to mention the RRFS experimental model. Oh and the RGEM.