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Okay ... heh I don't think this is the fault of the numerical models. All of them, including the NAM ... had 700 and 500 mb substantive RH pollution through mid afternoon today. Yet, the MOS (MET and MAV) guidance have "SC", which stands for scattered ( significant solar rad penetration inferred), with temperatures going birzirk to the mid 90s. At least for present hour, it's a reasonable explanation for the discrepancy. The interpretive algorithms ( MOS) are thus somehow statistically offsetting the objective guidance, which would be an error to do so in this case. The cynical explanation because I hate everybody ... this is a nice and tidy example of how you manufacture a bust... You get a "lazified" Met society, getting too used to slouch AI and tech in general to do their jobs for them, and in their reliance there is thus a lack of applied Meteorology to the data. A piece of shit work ethic that gets exposed when the these coffee break solutions in turn fuck up. Ha. I dunno... maybe the forecast gets saved by the bell so to speak if this grunge some how suddenly uncaps the sky.

That’s what she said. Got enough rain to wet the pavement here around 9:30-10 last night.

Trace at MHT. Epic.

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA: June 1st release: peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF Today’s release: peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

Was a mild storm at home...some twigs and leaves down; but drove to work this morning (3 miles east) and there's a fair number of small branches down. Live poplar mostly.

Another overnight car-topper...er, 0.05" in the bucket. 78F/DP 71F

Tonight looks dry

Should this ceiling contamination go on much longer we're looking at a significant temperature bust today - I'm sure Ineedacoldbullshitfilterlikeanalcoholicneedsaclinic will stamp a 100% emoji on this ... but CT also just cleared out rather abruptly over the last hour. Interesting, considering they were wet down there last evening - but this material is mid level so probably not related to that same murk. Either way, temperature can't really rise unless the clearing down there expands. We'll see. We'll rise fast if that happens, but already we're behind yesterday despite the higher launch pad.

1” here in lynbrook most of which fell in 20 minutes with a wet microburst. Visibility was down to a few hundred feet during the peak. .

Hi imby/Columbia on Thursday a “normal” 98.6° Thursday rainfall 0.21” June rainfall 0.77”

ff 61st Ave and Polk Pl. in Merrillville, IN, taken from my yard.

I hope you have backup plans to sit at Obrycki's

Sunday timing is not great for me with a 5pm flight

Saw this way too late, but got some excellent responses below. Nothing to add to what has already be hashed out. Environmental conditions thermodynamically were solid for the setup, but we were lacking in shear within the mid and upper levels to sustain prominent mesocyclones to really pack the punch needed. I was skeptical of the risk posed by SPC yesterday. I genuinely think they need to spend a year out here to experience how much we suck at severe so they can think twice. After living in West Texas for 5 years, there's not much that excites me here anymore, severe-wise. If I am excited, you should be too as my standards have been raised after being spoiled for years in the Southern High Plains.

.18 inch of much needed rain here last night.

Yep

I freaking laugh snorted at this this morning

Woah… just looked past this weekend. Who turned off summer?

(This worked last time) Wait, people are getting rain?

Despite the 30 wind probs, there is very little CAM signal for storms for most of us today. Seems like a pre-frontal trough rolls through early and switches the low-level flow to west-northwest which dries things out and kills convergence. I’m not quite ready to write off the day yet, but I’d like to see an improved CAM signal in the morning runs.

If we lose today at least Sunday is looking better as far as timing. Late afternoon instead of late evening.

Working his magic last night and this morning

Looks like most places won't see any rain today.

Missed out on any decent rainfall last night. Just .07". Additional rain chances over the next few days. Will be localized and some locations will do better than others but some heavy downpours possible in spots for sure. Another steamy day today.