All Activity
- Past hour
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Waiting for those storms the NAM has been promising me for (checks time), right now
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Meh...it's all good. I was just annoyed in the moment because I thought I was responding to weatherwiz through you're post when it was directed at Scott... whatever. ha
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.11" bust. Sunny now
- Today
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CoastalWx is the absolute king of post #'s on this group, and he is among the most vocal causal complainers, never mind one-liners when he is weenie'ing out (e.g. WE SNOW), and we have coined "ACATT," so why not? Point reference where all other weenies are rated! After working w/ him for more than 10 years and seeing him in action as a weenie, he lives for jabs and debate! My favorite line from him was pointing out caveats to an upcoming snowstorm, and he would always go, "We'll see!" Reassuring confirmation bias to make himself feel better and hoping the snow would turn as out as he wanted (wished) it!
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We knew
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I thought people would like it but haven't had much feedback other then the troll putting laugh emojis Any suggestions appreciated
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos -
This is impressive...the back edge of this denser mid/ua cloud shield which is entering western MA/CT as I type, was over the IN/OH border at dawn this morning... That's a fast flow wow.
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After some additional rain and showers tonight into early tomorrow, tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer under variably cloudy skies. Highs will likely top out in the middle 70s. Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. Warmer air could arrive during the weekend. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was +6.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Overperformer out here. Up to 0.93” with more to come. Wasn’t expecting an inch plus
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Steady rain now. Let’s wet the lawn.
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45° -RA 0.54” and slowly winding down What a Saturday!
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Yeah that's pretty much it ..our savior isn't going to come from the NW, it's gonna have to come from the SE. Maybe we'll have another record humid July with thunderstorms every day. It is good to see the extreme SE starting to get consistent precip. Eventually one will come north to hit us. I do watch the anomalously cold waters in the North Atlantic and wonder about those. It's been pretty persistent. No idea what that means for us and summer though.
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Euro caves to the gfs and turns Wednesday/thursday into a weak frontal passage.
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Mid 40's to low 50's inland to low-mid 50's along the shore with a down sloping wind from the NW. Chilly day away from the Lake in some areas of NE MN.
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I actually don't really care but I was responding to his post ...or her, whatever and then realized it looked like I was talking about Coastalwx when I really referencing weatherwiz. at which point I become annoyed
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Neat. How did you set this up? Edit: Noticed you used base44.com under the hood.
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Toe tapping ? Tap.. tap.. tap tap tap
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Lot of heavy stuff heading that way
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Is there a particular reason why VORTEX95 can't seem to post anything without implicating your name in there somewhere .. Is that really your wife in disguise or something ?
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Blizzard of 93 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I realized that I never put out my Winter grade for this past season…so here we go, better late than never… Overall Grade: B+ Each met Winter month at MDT had well below normal temperatures. We had sustained deep Winter feel, with minimal breaks. The cold began right around Thanksgiving & lasted through early March. Monthly Average Temps at MDT December -4.8 January -4.2 February -4.4 Snow total at MDT for the season ended up at 23.8 , which is 6.1 below seasonal average of 29.9. We got off to a really good snow start in December & January. Then in February, we couldn’t get any storms of note until the February 23rd storm, which then unfortunately under performed & only produced 3 inches at MDT while Philly, NYC & eastern New England cashed in with double digit amounts. The main issue in Each Winter month was the overall lack of precipitation. We had temperatures cooperate most of the time, but could not get the storm chances to provide more snow. The other issue is that yet again, we got no measurable snow in March. When we were sitting at 20 inches at the end of January, I thought that we were well on our way to an above normal season, but the end game was disappointing. Monthly snow totals at MDT December 5.0 January 15.2 February 3.6 If we would have reached climo average for the snow total, this Winter would have gotten an A from me, thanks to the sustained cold & snow/sleet cover lasted for over a month. This Winter provided several “What ifs” that could have made this season even more memorable with slightly better storm tracks or air mass cooperation. Here are a few “What Ifs”: -The Boxing Day ice storm tracked just 50 to 75 miles further southwest, we could have got the 3 or 4 inches of snow that Allentown & NYC received. -The mid January trough that set up that produced a couple of inches of snow at MDT with a few rounds of light precip, what if it consolidated into 1 significant snow event or if the track was more favorable with the actual events that produced 6 inches or more in Allentown & northeast PA. -The major snow/sleet storm in late January that produced 12 inches at MDT… what if the sneaky marginal warm layer that caused the flip to sleet due to the weak primary low that tracked into WV was offset by an earlier or stronger coastal low that could have reduced or eliminated the sleet mix…This storm was the only heavy precip producer of the season. It would not have taken much to get a widespread 18 inches of snow in the LSV. -the February storm that gave us 3 inches from the late developing Miller B… what if it developed just 100 miles further southwest… we could have received the 10 to 20 inch amounts that Philly & NYC scored. There are a few more chances that ended up not in our favor, especially in the first half of March, but no such luck. Overall, there was non stop Winter storm tracking from Thanksgiving to mid March. I was satisfied with this Winter, but also frustrated, mainly due to all of the what ifs that I mentioned. If one or two of those broke in our favor, this Winter would have been great. This Winter was our best season since 20–21 & much better than the last few seasons. -
Taking lessons from CoastalWx? We do need the rain!
