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I will take this NCEP 5-day please

WB 6Z EURO is less robust through Tuesday; but will still take it!

Let's repeat this low track in a few months from now

Saddening. Lol.

Early afternoon for most , sooner west

Eur much like the GFs and others with a warm / humid pattern with the WC ridge backing offhsore PNW and as the Atlantic ridge hugs the EC

When are we expecting the clouds?

Same here only most of them are big green ones.

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2006 / 2024) NYC: 100 (1933) LGA: 100 (2006) JFK: 97 (2006) Lows: EWR: 52 (1943) NYC: 59 (1964) LGA: 62 (1947) JFK: 60 (1964) Historical: 1812: A tornado struck parts of Westchester County, New York. The same storm today would have caused major destruction. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1917: 80 forest fires ,were ignited in Trinity County, California when an electrical storm produced hundreds of lightning bolts over a small area which was tinder-box dry from severe drought. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1947: What turned out to be the hottest August on record started off on a decidedly cool note across parts of Michigan with record lows at: Houghton Lake, MI: 32°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 36°, Muskegon, MI: 43°, Flint, MI: 43° and Grand Rapids, MI: 48 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1954 - Mount Rainier in Washington State was still covered with sixteen inches of snow at the 5500 foot level following a big snow season. (David Ludlum) 1966: Very strong winds from severe thunderstorms struck northwest Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 80 mph in Laverne, and blew a parked Cessna aircraft through a fence and into a ditch. As the storms approached Gage, winds gusted to 92 mph, causing blowing dust that reduced the visibility to near zero. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: This was the first of 25 straight days without measurable rain at Philadelphia, PA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1974: Georgia--An 18-year-old youth was killed by lightning at a lumber camp on the Ocmulgee River. Maine--One person was killed by lightning at Fort Fairfield. Aroostook County. No further details. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1976: Flight operations at the former Stapleton Airport in Denver, CO were suspended for 90 minutes when the airport tower radar was knocked out and water reached a foot deep on some taxi ramps after 1.50 inches of rain fell in one hour. Record lows gripped Wisconsin including Green Bay, WI: 45°, Madison, WI: 47°, La Crosse, WI: 49° and Milwaukee, WI: 49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: A severe thunderstorm developed in Beadle County, South Dakota during the afternoon and plunged southeastward. Winds up to 80 mph and hail the size of golf balls pelted the area. The hail piled up to six inches deep on roads and to three feet in the ditches. So much hail fell that it remained on the ground in some areas for 36 hours after the storm. Approximately 480,000 acres of nearly ripe crops were badly damaged or completely destroyed. Damage to crops and personal property was estimated at $4 million dollars. Over 35 inches of rain fell in the Hill Country northwest of San Antonio, TX between 7/31 and 8/4 as the remnants of Tropical Storm Amelia stalled. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: The relentless heat from the summer of 1980 continued. Record highs included: Wichita, KS: 110°, Oklahoma City, OK 108°, Columbia, MO: 108°, Topeka, KS: 107°, Dodge City, KS: 106°, Little Rock, AR: 105°, St. Louis, MO: 104° and Springfield, MO: 103°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: During the early afternoon hours, a strong microburst swept across Andrews Air Force Base in Washington, D.C. Although the base anemometer was not calibrated at extreme wind speeds, the peak gust hit 149 mph. It was reported that Air Force One, with President Reagan on board, landed less than 10 minutes before the peak gust. 1985 - A nearly stationary thunderstorm deluged Cheyenne, WY, with rain and hail. Six inches of rain fell in six hours producing the most damaging flash flood of record for the state. Two to five feet of hail covered the ground following the storm, which claimed twelve lives, and caused 65 million dollars property damage. (Storm Data) 1986 - A powerful thunderstorm produced 100 mph winds and large hail in eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri causing 71 million dollars damage, and injuring nineteen persons. It was one of the worst thunderstorms of record for Kansas. Crops were mowed to the ground in places and roofs blown off buildings along its path, 150 miles long and 30 miles wide, from near Abilene to southeast of Pittsburg. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Record heat gripped parts of the Midwest. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lincoln, NE, with a reading of 105 degrees, Moline, IL, with an afternoon high of 103 degrees, and Burlington, IA, with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Two dozen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including La Crosse WI with a reading of 105 degrees. Highs of 103 degrees at Milwaukee, WI, and South Bend, IN, were records for the month of August. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Chantal made landfall along the Upper Texas coast about sunrise. Chantal deluged parts of Galveston Island and southeastern Texas with 8 to 12 inches of rain. Unofficial totals ranged up to twenty inches. Winds gusted to 82 mph at Galveston, and reached 76 mph in the Houston area. Tides were 5 to 7 feet high. The hurricane claimed two lives, and caused 100 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: A record 220,000 lightning bolts were recorded in the United States on this date. The usual number on summer days is about 100,000. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Suffolk, VA several homes were struck by lightning and at least two people were injured. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

82 / 69 partly to mostly sunny but clouds building to our west and on their approach. Mid - upper 80s and like yesterday with enough sun a stray 90 in spots (NJ). Clouds back Sunday and then the next cut off to our west is slowed by the building Atlantic ridge and pumps a southerly humid flow with showers, rain and storms Mon - Tue with 1 - 3 inches plus in spots. Beyond there overall warm to hot at times very humid and likely wet. Next shot at a heat wave in the 8/6 - 8/12 period with storms/clouds the caveat. 8/1 - 8/2 : Warm/humid dry - clouds 8/3 - 8/4 : Rain 1-3 inches 8/5 : Showrs/rain 8/6 - Beyond : Overall warm/humid to hot at times - storms potential and watch the tropics

This seems like a load management move for Prielipp, who is now already over his highest number of innings pitched in his career. You have Ryan, Taj, Ober and then fill in the starts with Prielipp, Matthews and Kremer. It isn’t a great rotation, but somehow the Twins lead the AL in scoring.

Once again the NAM looks like crap before a precip event. But hrrr is really rainy for the metro areas tomorrow.

On top of all that, it’s a good spot to look for rattlers

I love dolly sods. We've still never been there in any season other than the dead of winter though. Winter backpacking there is always an adventure.

Still seeing the colder than avg surface temps in the northern plains like the previous run. Looking at each month Feb is coldest. The EPO ridge is more amped in JFM and with the advertised TPV position there is a mechanism for cold air delivery from the Polar region, similar to last months edition. The latest CFS looks warmish for Dec and Jan but then quite cold for Feb and March, due to a strong west based -NAO and a weaker/better positioned Aleutian low. All just speculation at this point, but I would expect an overall mild winter with the possibility of timing some cold with a disturbance in the southern stream a time or 2.

It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong

This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).

I feel that it will too but think it's also important to point out that there is some resistance out there.

72F/DP 71F Temps haven't been bad but the DPs have sucked...

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling.

Does anyone else have acorns coming down ? Medium sized green ones . Started a few weeks ago and getting worse which means anger

The first half of June+first half of July would have ranked as the 10th warmest such period. The second half of June + second half of July would rank as the 51st coolest such period (mean temperature: 74.0°; 2009 with a mean temperature of 68.0° is the coolest such period).

I was hoping to read a post from you again before I transition. Stay well, you’re already blessed. As always …..