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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.
  4. Prismshine Productions
    Man I am moving near a cliff don't do this to me Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  5. ensonerd1233e343
    thanks
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
  8. Boston Bulldog
    Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
  10. jaxjagman
    PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardless
  11. ineedsnow
    click around here and you can find the 1,000 ensemble run https://polarwx.com/tropical/#al962026/super also weathernerds.org is good
  12. ensonerd1233e343
    still record breaking
  13. FXWX
    Kev... What site do you view Google Deep Mind tropical graphic?
  14. ensonerd1233e343
    Mine are 3.3-3.5 oni 2.4-2.6 roni so we agree for roni i just think the tropics will be warmer so the gap between roni and oni will be bigger
  15. Today
  16. ensonerd1233e343
    I would say three years of la nina are likely
  17. ensonerd1233e343
    I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://northtrustpharm.com/# NorthTrust Pharm
  19. Psychguy
    Dolly was the epitome of decency and class… she will be truly missed…
  20. ensonerd1233e343
    insignifcat
  21. ensonerd1233e343
    link to site?
  22. CoastalWx
    Thankfully that won’t happen again.
  23. powderfreak
    2008 had 0 hours of dews above 70F in August? Yore.
  24. dendrite
    Middle of the road dews
  25. kdxken
    Sheesh some people will believe anything . ""We have a 290-, I think 300-foot slit right through, probably a box cutter or a knife of some kind."
  26. so_whats_happening
    It looks maybe for the time of year we will come close to the highest RONI number but overall 1982/83 takes the cake when it happened in December.
  27. so_whats_happening
    Yea the dynamic models tend to always overdo things but with how quickly the evolution was that made sense. I have always felt statistical was the better suite as dynamic models tend to keep with how things are going at the present time moving forward which is really hard to do. The answer usually lies just above statistical model suite line. Seeing as though there are some lessening of the overall push within the last 2 weeks and some more to come I would say we coast at this point. We will come close to the overall daily peak we saw in 2015 with a near 3C but trimonthly should end up around roughly 2.5-2.7 range when all is said and done, unless we have another surprise. Given that, RONI trimonthly may end up a bit lower than 2.5 on the trimonthly more so closer to 2.2-2.3 from the perspective of NOAA calculations. Now lets see if we can get the atmosphere to represent that of a super Nino coming up this fall. There definitely seem to be limitations to overall intensity even in a warming climate, maybe if the PDO was not fighting back we could have reached those upper thresholds.
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