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Two Decembers that flipped very greatly from cold first half (+2-4 days) to mild second half would be 1875 and 1895. The means changed as follows: 1895 ___ mean 1-17 30.7 ___ mean 18-31 47.7 ___ overall 38.4 1875 ___ mean 1-20 29.1 ___ mean 19-31 41.3 ___ overall 33.4 The largest upward shifts in recent Decembers are 2003 ___ mean 1-21 34.5 ___ mean 22-31 44.2 ___ overall 37.6 2005 ___ mean 1-22 32.0 ___ mean 23-31 43.2 ___ overall 35.3 The most prolific change was in Dec 1895 and most of the rest of the winter (Jan-Mar 1896) turned quite cold again. Winter 1875-76 remained mild well into Feb 1876, March was cold.

Lol. I try man! Tough game for me lol

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating

Welcome to the board fellow golfer .

Reasonable at this point. Hopefully it amps up a little more and we can get those 3"+ amounts.

"finally" Anybody who posts a snowfall map over 3 days in advance is dumb.

Midwest is getting more heavy snow through this weekend. Clipper moving in tonight, and then another snowstorm that's in Montana/the Northwest tonight moving in through this weekend. It's good to see snow to our north, west, and south. Winter definitely off to a good start for much of the northern tier. Hopefully we get ours this weekend and then we can reset later this month and start off January strong. I'm just concerned about torching late month and then that lasting through January like December 2022. Lots of similarities that month.

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. Whatever falls falls.

Hello guys. Somewhat new to the forum. Live in west tennessee. Its going to pretty cold Sunday. Interesting pattern so far. I'm somewhat intrigued in the pdo, which has risen somewhat the last few weeks

@stormtracker Showing results for 'phase 8' in content posted by MJO812. - American Weather Remind us all again why he's only barred from posting in the MA forum.

I wasn’t in CON yesterday, but I could tell by the reports. The hill by the rest area is like entering Franconia Notch.

The NWS finally issued their first snowfall map that goes through the end of the storm and, as expected, they're generally in the 1-3" range with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and the higher end of the range along and SE of 95 (and SW of Philly), but anyone who has seen the models knows that 3-5" amounts are still on the table if the coastal stays close enough to the coast. Good NWS discussion highlighting the range of possibilities is below. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 231 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 The forecast gets more complicated for the Saturday night through Sunday period as there will be several different things at play. In the upper levels, there will be an upper level trough digging as it moves from the Great Lakes region towards the east coast. Meanwhile at the surface level, there will be an arctic front pushing into the area from the NW as low pressure pivots through Quebec into northern New England. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure will form farther south near the front as it`s moving through the mid Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday morning. However there are differences regarding the strength and track of this system. The latest GFS continues to indicate that the low may not really get going until it`s off the coast and if this were to verify, most of the precip with the system would be near and south of the I-95 corridor but mainly fall as snow. The NAM is at the other end of the spectrum indicating a stronger low forming near Delmarva. This would keep the heaviest precip with the system north of the urban corridor with lighter amounts and more of a snow/rain mix farther south. The 12z RGEM lies in between these two extremes. There`s also a wide variation in the ensembles. Given this continuing uncertainty, we largely stayed close to the NBM. And the bottom line with this forecast is that we do expect precip to move in either late Saturday evening or overnight Saturday night. It should be mainly snow except near the coast where some mixing with rain is likely...especially at the onset. And if arrives early enough Saturday evening, some rain or mixing could also occur near the urban corridor. The bulk of the precip falls overnight Saturday night through the first half of Sunday morning. This had been looking like a light precip event but some of the latest guidance has also beefed up QPF amounts into the .25 to .50 inch range. The big questions though are where the highest amounts will fall and how this will translate to snowfall. We admittedly still lean a little on the conservative side with forecast snow amounts and continue to indicate a fairly widespread 1-3 inches falling across the area. There is the potential though that some areas could see snow amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range given the general uptick in forecast QPF. The big question though is where these amounts occur. A more northern track would result in these higher occuring over eastern PA into northern NJ where a more southern track would favor higher amounts along the coastal plain. At this point, the main thing to stress is this continuing uncertainty in the details despite overall moderate confidence in there being an accumulating snowfall event affecting the area.

I don't want "warm", just normal. My job gets difficult and stressful when we get Arctic cold

Bro, you want a fact for your ass, you are one whining beotch. Here’s another fact for you….It is early…very f’n early. No snow, oh well. Deal with it. It happens. And it’s happening now..for SNE anyway. You need a break.

BTW, did you notice exit 18 was the magic line yesterday again? Or close to it. it’s amazing how that exit seems to be the line of meh to really deep winter.

Mount Holly going with a general 1-3", and defaulting to the NBM(surprise!) due to the current disparity among the guidance. Also mention the potential for a stripe of 3-5" somewhere in the area if some of the more juiced up runs verify.

I feel so bad for him. He knows nothing but disaster.

who's your daddy meaning slang - Google Search

Tell him the DGEX was so good it started at 87 and ran through 192.

Is it me or is the clipper precip shield much further South than I was anticipating. .

Wont be excited until tomorrow night but looking like the first measurable event for mostly everyone.

D***That's some h********, and how it just breaks up with the mountains

Mehlting He’s prob a better met than the pope