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It not easy b/c it depends on the CAPE distribution in the vertical column. In other words, you can't apply one updraft value at all levels of the atmosphere where there is CAPE b/c the amount of CAPE can vary a lot depending on the level you are at. Total CAPE does not necessarily tell the entire story as to full updraft potential. Yes, generally more the CAPE the better, but it does not always mean the same type of svr wx or even things like lightning frequency or most efficient rainfall rates. And CAPE (hence updraft potential) is almost never realized fully by a storm, b/c of 1) dry air entrainment and 2) precip loading. And it goes one step further. Updraft strength is also dependent on pressure perturbations induced by a mesocyclone. For instance, mesocyclones are typically strongest at mid-levels. So you actually have lowest pressure here. This results in dynamic uplift b/c of the pressure deficit aloft. Now, this is superimposed on CAPE that is present. A mesocyclone present can effectively double the updraft strength that would exist just from CAPE alone, which is why supercell updrafts are so intense. More CAPE down at low-levels is better for tornadogenesis b/c you increase updraft acceleration potential where it matters most (stretching of a vortex). That's why we look at how much CAPE exists 0-3 km for one ingredient for tornado potential. I'm just scratching the sfc here, but you get the idea. It's hard to set nice, neat values in a given atmosphere due to so many factors.

A stunning 1.3 which is more than the whole month of July before this! It's also the most rain at one time since I moved to the southern MD desert. We'll need more in the next couple weeks to avoid a seventh straight below normal month.

Cape May only had 0.71" for the entire month before today. There up to 2.83" for today, including 1.89" for the past hour and the radar is still training over that area. Amazing how you can get a lot of it back within a short time frame.

That’s the actual cold front?

Wife said it was the worst rain she's driven in before. Checked the guage, got 1.5" if rain today.

And many wailed over and over all afternoon what a bust this all was . Large area of 1-3” and by tomorrow there will be tornados confirmation for sure.

3.13" still raining, 8.39" for the month. July 2025 was 7.47", looks like 2018 is my record for July at 10.31", followed by July 2023 at 10.12". July historically has consistently been a very wet month.

Wikipedia, believe it or not, has good objective wx definitions, and then you can look at all it references at the bottom, and go from there.

HRRR wants to bring another line through the area in a few hours. Verbatim, it's mainly for areas south of DC, but there are certainly cells further north in eastern WV than modeled.

Only 0.13" here. But the ground is still moist from Saturday's big rains, so it's not a big deal that we mostly missed today.

One way of thinking of it as an "integrated lifted index." If you know what lifted index is, CAPE is just a more advanced version of it, quantifying instability better in the atmosphere.

Is there a way to calculate how many mph thise strong vs weak updrafts are moving at,?

Or winter is just gonna be that warm! LOL. But yeah, i need some seriously lower humidity, Jeff. I am soaked every morning after my run. Just looks like someone took a 5 gallon bucket, and poured over my head. Same deal after mowing. Tags are now spring and summer - you all have high standards for thread tags! If it was Montana, I might leave snow. They started the month out w/ winter storm warnings in SW Montana! Fortunately, the west is getting some much needed monsoonal rains in a few areas. I saw that Mammoth had rain this past week. Not unheard of, but it was plentiful. Portions of MT had flood warnings last week which is kind of nuts out there during the summer. Storms kind of fizzled out in NE TN this evening - so far. I don't mind that. Storms IMBY seem to find a way to get pretty bad on NW flow t-storms during July.....just not NW flow snow during January. But yo....send me some crisp air masses. Central Florida can keep this humidity. It's theirs, and they can have it back!

You are gonna break 3" there.

I loved all the lightning too.

Getting heavier rain with T&L again. Gonna easily exceed 2".

Currently, we have the biggest dry lightning storm I have ever seen up here. Continuous ground to lightning, in every direction. It had better rain.

So at my house the total is 1.14”. Over here in DE a flash flood warning was just issued. Some nice thunder and lightning as the rain is coming down.

Dude its so easy to find literally anything with AI. Just do a simple search with specifically what you want to know about- What is CAPE and how does it relate to severe weather? CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It measures the amount of energy available in the atmosphere to drive the upward motion of air (updrafts), serving essentially as the fuel for severe thunderstorms. CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram (J/kg). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] How CAPE Works When a parcel of air becomes warmer and less dense than the surrounding environment, it rises. CAPE calculates the total buoyancy force acting on that rising parcel throughout the depth of the atmosphere. The greater the temperature difference between the rising air and the environment, the higher the CAPE value and the faster the air ascends. [1, 2, 3] CAPE Values and Severe Weather Meteorologists use CAPE to gauge the intensity and potential severity of convective storms. In general, higher CAPE values indicate greater atmospheric instability. [1, 2, 3] 0 – 1,000 J/kg: Stable to weakly unstable. Generally low risk of severe weather. 1,000 – 2,500 J/kg: Moderate instability. Capable of producing strong, sustained thunderstorms. 2,500 – 4,000 J/kg: Strong instability. High potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging winds. Greater than 4,000 J/kg: Extreme instability. Strongly supports explosive updrafts and highly severe phenomena. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] The Bigger Picture While CAPE represents the potential energy, it is not a standalone predictor. For severe weather to develop, high CAPE must combine with a trigger (such as a cold front or daytime heating) to force the air upward, and sufficient wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) to organize the storm. What are the different types of CAPE? In meteorology, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures atmospheric instability and storm fuel. The four main types used to evaluate severe weather potential vary by the specific air parcel measured: [1, 2, 3, 4] MLCAPE (Mean-Layer CAPE): Averages the characteristics of air parcels in the lowest 100 millibars of the atmosphere. It represents the mixed boundary layer and is highly reliable for predicting organized, surface-based storm systems. [1, 2, 3] MUCAPE (Most-Unstable CAPE): Identifies the most buoyant parcel within the lowest portion of the atmosphere. It is the best tool for spotting elevated, nocturnal thunderstorms that develop above a surface inversion. [1] 0-3 km CAPE: Measures instability only in the lowest three kilometers of the atmosphere. Lower values in this shallow layer are specifically monitored for their ability to promote the rapid stretching of air required for tornado formation SBCAPE (Surface-Based CAPE): Measures the buoyancy of an air parcel directly at the Earth's surface. It is highly useful for predicting afternoon thunderstorm and tornado potential, though it can overstate instability on days with shallow surface moisture. [1]

2.45" and torrential again. I am good. About to surpass July 2025's montly total

Tempest recorded .06 of rain and an 18 mph gust of wind today. What a fail…enhanced risk and everything lol.

I thank you for that and those links with great info and visuals--it's already starting to make more sense. Just that lottle hit goes a long way

. 71” on the day. 5.05”/ month.

south of towson 2.23+ much needed

Just drizzle now. Call it 3.25" biggest event of the year.