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Last three 12z runs - 3 days. All hail…

Gets below freezing around 9z, but nice rates before that

I understand keeping it conservative at this lead time, but still that’s warning snows and likely a high impact event for some of the CWA and not even a watch yet. Just strikes me as odd.

Euro west

Yeah, really all the way back to around Labor Day here. And the CPC weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts just came out, which to me look like no real major pattern change for the next several months- La Niña, having far overstayed its welcome, may reluctantly leave, but that isn't translating into less heat or more moisture. Meanwhile, the East Coast keeps getting slammed with one storm after another.

AC to New London is not going to forget this Blizzard.

Can definitely understand. Until there is actually snow on the ground, there is always bust potential. (March 2001 should have taught us that.) I just learned over time to be grateful for all types of weather as they come to you because you just never know when that's going to come again. Sorry if I do come across the wrong way. I kind of feel like an outsider, if anything, as I'm not a meteorologist or anything. I hold a full time job, and do this just for a hobby/interest. I don't get anything extra if my forecast verifies.

Euro looks great for you guys, best run yet I’d argue. Looking forward to the pics and vids. Could end up a HECS after all

Euro joined the party.

Don’t play dumb, you posted a snow map earlier for a storm that is synoptically different but it was a coastal scraper so you insisted it makes it an analog. I asked for the 500 mb comparison and you went silent so that right there tells me you know what you’re doing, you know just enough to be dangerous, but it doesn’t change the fact you are always on the side of less snow no matter what.

4.5".....still snowing...iced up

Hey if it makes you both feel better I haven't even been close to getting missed by a HECS in my tracking lifetime!

as a past and a near future sd resident, im laughing at how people are handling their lil cool snap out there rn. was 40 in la mesa (about 8 miles east from downtown sd) and people are "freezing". my girlfriend (native san diegan) who lives out there has been complaining about the cold lmao

Only 53 inches plus needed for Central Park to catch 1995/96. Piece of cake.

Coastal low did come west a bit

2/21 12z EURO AI AIFS Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1

Probably not?

I asked for 50 more miles west from 6z, I think I’m getting it.

decent qpf uptrend through 47

My issue with the models showing 6" is that you know because of marginal temps it's gonna be less than that due to low rates...and we wake up looking a sloppy 3" of snow Monday morning. So it's basically WWA except for Mt. Psu. Not exactly a great consolation prize. See even though I know it's climo and par for the course, it still sucks seeing them get their HECS while we are likely to go another year without one. It'll be 11 years next year. If we hadn't gone so long it wouldn't suck as much.

Man that looks good!!

Might be 50 miles west of 6z this run…

Do you think my flight will be ok arriving 4pm EDT Sunday? Sorry if off topic.