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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  3. I dont wanna sound to weenie but i dont think people realize how good of a look the nmme is for mid atlantic snowfall its jan feb maps look like carbon copys of the avg of the 5 strong/super nino events that produced good snow here you have the same key 3 features 1 big goa/pac low 2 hudson bay ridge 3 trough centered over the gulf coast of course details are not exactly the same but big pic it basiaclly is and its certiannly not the same as the one with no big snows in dc
  4. Yes, and the memes and cliches on TV and social media would have been out of control!
  5. Despite the suppressed activity, what has happened has been a bit odd. For instance, it is not often you have a TS form E of the Cabo Verde islands and dissipate in the same general area! And you have Fay that won't go away and has been moving WSW at an unusually high latitude for a few days now. Bertha at one point so ridiculously sheared w/ the low-level and mid-level displaced in the Gulf but an incredible MCC w/ an enormous amount of CGs
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. Huh? They 100% have been behind this entire storm.... they weren't so bad with the coastal flooding but we're slow at first, the winds well... yeah they were very behind. High winds have verified, coastal flooding has verified, jersey shore has no sand left long island beaches have no sand left. A storm this jazzed up, this early in season with so many leaves on trees is like a tree massacre.... and such a long duration is unusual.
  8. thats not true this enso state is not "histroically unfavroable" we only have two events like it one torched and had no snow the other had a torch dec then near normal jan feb that had a blizzard in there There are defenitly more unfavorable enso states for mid atl snow
  9. anyone slamming upton yesterday for being asleep and/or stubborn should give a little hat tip of respect. not a nuisance storm for the areas warned to flood that always flood but its basically just a september storm elsewhere right?
  10. I was gonna say still mostly in the 40s here for gusts, wind was stronger early saturday morning. I guess we'll see if the high wind warning was justified as the night goes on
  11. I keep seeing people talk about the 2015 - 2016 record El Nino and how the winter of 2015 - 2016 was so horrible. I sure as heck don't remember anyone complaining about the 27.5 inches of snow Central Park got in one storm.
  12. because 1983 had literally the same setup and produced a big mid atlantic snowstorm?
  13. Fucking blowing like a mother hefer right now! Just got home from a rescue But it's scary standing under trees. My yard and road looks like a war happened. Winds blowing 50 mph. It's nuts right now.
  14. 100% dead-on. ...I just hit on all of that in he piece I just published...competing convective forcing nodes....one in the central Pacific in association with the western warm pool that was dislodged eastward, and one with the El Niño....we are now rooting for the same warm pool that we have spent the better part of a decade cursing out.
  15. Rgem, hrdps, and hrrr all show an intense rain band over LI/NYC tomorrow night.
  16. How’s it looking tomorrow? I’m leaving AC sometime in the afternoon if I could get out of here.
  17. Good....not bad timing for a deviation from warm ENSO climo, especially a record one.
  18. Today
  19. Congrats on getting Polo's rain! Hey could you send a little of that rain down to south central Texas please?
  20. 40/70 REALLY gets deep into the analysis on his blog!
  21. Hi res models had the winds ramping up next few hours as the low passes close, guess we’ll see, by far strongest of today so far out in Massapequa
  22. Seems to be blossoming last few frames looks like island gets into it now
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