All Activity

@WEATHER53, you are not wrong in your observation here. ----- Now, first let me say I don't want what I say below cause a flare-up b/c of the topical item was mentioned in the quoted posts above. I am listing objective, factual statistics below that provide context and perspective only and inform about some things some may not know or realize when it comes to TC records/stats in the Atlantic. ----- After the record 2005 season, things shutdown big time for landfalls in the CONUS, setting a record on the other end of the spectrum. After Wilma's landfall in Oct 2005, the CONUS went 11.5 years w/o a major hurricane landfall, which is the longest period on record going back to 1851. And the period 1995-2016? 3 of 32 hurricanes in the Atlantic had a CONUS major landfall 1995-2003, 7 of 13 2004-2005, and 0 of 29 from 2006-2016. So it was all focused in one big 2-year period, and atypically quiet either side for 20 seasons for CONUS landfalls. We hear plenty of talk on how active things have been recently, and it indeed has, but often I find little context and perspective given in reports, not only from a historical point-of-view, but also records that display atypical inactivity in recent decades. If you are going to talk about trends/changes, all relevant and reasonable information/data should be presented/provided, not cherry-picked. Facts are meaningless w/o context. I would also caution about falling into the recency bias trap when it comes to wx events. It is cognitive shortcut where people give more importance and weight to recent events, experiences, or information than to prior or historical data. Here is a good example: The 10-year period 2015-2024 had 25 CONUS hurricane landfalls. However, the record in a 10-year period is 27 1879-1888. So what has happened recently for CONUS hurricanes landfalls is not unprecedented. And if you look at events that occurred long ago that have no equal in recent decades? * Two category 3 hurricanes (both 110 kt) made landfall 23 hours apart in the U.S. in Sep 1933 (Jupiter FL and Brownsville TX). Nothing else even close to this exists in the record. * There are only 5 known Atlantic hurricanes to occur in May since 1851. Last time there was one was in 1970. The strongest was in 1863, which made landfall as category 2 in the FL Panhandle, making it the earliest landfall CONUS hurricane on record. * The last June CONUS hurricane landfall was in 1986. This is the longest stretch w/o a June CONUS landfall on record. * In June 1886, 3 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. No other June has had more than 1. * New England had 5 hurricane landfalls in a 23-year period 1938-1960. None have occurred for 35 years 1991-2026, which is the longest period on record for the region.

Yea, this is what I was getting at....maybe it won't be pretty, but it will be a +PNA.

The 0z is the best gfs run yet for a region wide soaking.

A very welcomed change!

Picked up 0.31” here, brings MTD total to 1.90”

Where the heck are you in Mt Ulla? Got 0.01" here and 1.27" for the month. I'm here near the elementary school.

IF we're looking for interesting weather over the next few weeks, best combination would be the 5 days of moisture train panning out, combined with a subtropical/somewhat tropical development off the SE coast coming north over the next week or two. Other than that we may be kvetching until the first proper nor'easter.

CPC's PNA index is a little weird, DJFM 23-24 was 4/4 +PNA months, totaling +2 and the overal H5 for it was a +45dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands... kind of a big difference. In Jan 2025 there was a +200dm ridge and they were saying it was +PNA.

Closer to neutral doesn't mean -PNA but there is a tendency in those two months.

Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.

I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.

yeah i don't buy that -PNA in a super nino

Thank you, I'm really excited to see her in the morning and cook some eggs and scrapple in the parking lot lol. You have fun tomorrow as well!

00z analysis gives 99L 30 kt and 1015 mb. Convection is better for overall coverage, but is still is disorganized w/ pulsing. You can see an anticyclonic jet plume starting to impinge on the srn part of the system. Also, on WV, the overall circulation has become more elongated since 18z. That is not a positive sign. Objectively, it is TD I think, but given the surrounding environmental trends, NHC may not do anything at 03z.

Picked up a nice 0.61" this evening. Best rain since July. 1.33" for the month

With all the chilly weather and cold rains falling in Wisconsin per my uncle, I think this could turn out to be some unusual Nino with a wet northern tier! And NO RAIN at all in Texas lol. What else is new.

Lol there is a double standard of heat vs ac. Most would be ecstatic if they didn't need to use heat in the winter. It really wasn't that bad, try a cold shower and some ice cream. Don, Fall doesn't begin until Tuesday. Nope perfect morning weather. You're strange. Days of clouds and rain is MUCH worse. Nothing a pint of ice cream and a cold shower won't fix. What is causing these large highs to our north? This is why you need a covered deck. Wow 10 degrees lower than JFK here, 73 degrees. It was the perfect day. I loved that fall but that other fall when we had 0 rainfall in October and multiple 80 degrees readings and even mid 80s in November was even better. No heat until November 13th!