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Cooler air will return for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°. A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -34.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Depends on the year since the ridge location and intensity has been quite variable during previous super El Niño Octobers. This year is doing its own thing so far with the ridges stronger and further south than usual. We’ll have to see what the pattern looks like in early October since all we have now is a snapshot for the start of the month.

Your bride is the blessing, Rob. I lost mine nearly nine years ago. I still sleep in our original wedding bed. ….. But not completely alone ….. my arms embrace a memory. As always …..

it was the most aggressive and now its less than inch i have noticed a trend. Euro will usually have something crazy....the GGEM or GFS will pick up on that craziness 1-2 days later but by the time they pick up on--the Euro is in no mode....and loses it lol

I was hoping that the rain would miss us, as some of the models were showing, and that we could get a week or two of sunny mid-seventies with 45-degree dews to get us on a good start with fall.

Y'all practicing? This sounds fun/interesting from WPC EFD this morning- ..Weather/Hazards Highlights... Upper-level support and a surface frontal system will lead to multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain in the East next week. The placement of the heaviest amounts will vary from day to day, but generally the Mid-Atlantic looks like a focus. A relatively strong surface high for September should set up over Quebec and spill a cold air damming wedge south behind the front, yielding colder than average temperatures across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, with highs generally in the 60s and upper 50s Tuesday-Wednesday. This pattern will also allow for onshore winds and potentially some concern for coastal flooding for portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

True. The coast is its own beast.

Canadian has a beautiful H5 pass with the progged coastal system next week. Too bad it's not January! Maybe a good sign for the winter, though? By the way, ever since the Canadian suite was upgraded in recent months it's been outperforming the Euro and GFS by quite a bit.

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

I thought the Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay was not usually a Nino feature in October though.

Hey Rich! .20 yesterday, 3.14 for the month, and a 2.5 hour power outage from around 10pm-12:30am last night. The power going out went unnoticed as the bride and I were already snoring but when it came back on the house 'coming back to life' got my attention and totally messed up my sleep cycle. Gorgeous weather here today and tomorrow before the gloom returns. My AC's getting uninstalled is on my list for tomorrow for those who are passionate about tracking such things. Happy feel-good football Friday! That's my report and GO IRISH!

I would just caution that when models start backing in deep layer lows at 5-7 day leads, it's usually symbolic if not processing as though 'getting ready' to collapse one way or another.

kid's a freshman at PSU, going to see her this weekend and to our first game tomorrow, first real taste of fall looks like...about time!

so, water

i miss your ipa names

Yeah picked up a bit of sprinklage here.

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible: This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season: These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then: 1902: 1899: 1896: 1888: 1877:

I’m tempted to do a rainfail contest for Sunday - Wednesday.

https://www.facebook.com/WKRNDavisNolan/posts/pfbid0dPn5tsocRuz5JK1VgL9FgdhRUQvgX2VisfbxureuofMDEvLcfEsijeuUPjhNAVqfl yep Davis Nolan among other meteorologists are forecasting a cool down coming towards the middle to end of next week looks refreshing .

This moment 23 years ago was exciting. Here's to another day like that soon.