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man these operational runs are all fucked up with wave spacing/interference schemes. The indexes nailed this period... well, so far - nothings verified yet. But the +PNA, however west biased or whatever is going to happen. Anyway, the best fit the amplifying +PNA at mid month is actually the 24th phantom system on the GFS' 00z. But by then, the +PNA is in a state of decay - which is also not a certainty anyway. It's like we should be seeing a 24th type look on the 14-15-16 period but the field is mired down by wave space issues. The 00z GFS was dubious with that 970mb micro cyclone. It's nice eye candy sitting there with category 2 hurricane winds and choke snow a stones through E of Logan like that, but whenever you see a system that is dimensional-challenged in the midst of a large/huge amplification like that it is always suspect and pretty much never happens. It's like the model physics are responding to the immense volatility of the total pattern, and then that triggers a systems not well coupled to the that larger field - otherwise...the system should be larger. Like the 20fukum4th! uh-nnoying. You can see the wave interference in the ens means of both the EPS and GEFs. There is a deep anomaly at the longitude of the Tenn. Valley on the 15th, and then while the ridge stays fixed in position out west, the nadir is suddenly repositioned back toward St Louise on the 17th. That's indicative of wave contention in the means. That's prooobably why they have been having issues getting more coherent with any cyclone signals.

There’s a 3rd s/w that appears would phase in on that run…that GL one is potent and diving in quickly. Someone run the dgex off this so we can see what happens.

Those are more believable for the NE as long as the system stays close enough to give them snow. Thanks for posting and supports the forecast for my area that I posted.

Idk man, I actually think we score from one of the systems

My new sump pump got a nice workout session in yesterday. .

Low of 36 with a trace of rain overnight. My highs for today and tomorrow are now down to 52 and 44, quite the change.

Freezing fog looked nice in the trees this morning. 26°.

33 / 31 clear more upper 40s / low 50s today. Cloudy cooler / wet Saturday into Sunday with 0.5 tp 1 inch of rain mainly in the afternoon and into the lat evening. Overall a bit above normal Sun - Thu before trough digs in. Next storm threats between the 15 - 19 as it turns below normal.

Very low confidence on this....but the 2013 analog that I discussed with Will is in the back of my mind and we do have some catching up to do. I like early March better, but eyes should be peeled in February. I was so torn on including that year in my February composite, but opted against at the last moment bc it was too warm ENSOish...but I wouldn't argue with anyone that did.

Frosty morning, upper 20s

Mid level clouds now and we fogged up early. But yeah, I saw wx2fish was colder than me for awhile too. There’s a bunch of WU stations down the hill from me in the river valleys and they’re usually a good 3-5° cooler on rad nights.

0z EPS, 6z GEFS & 6z AI EPS show the potential for the upcoming period.

EPS and GEFS aren’t bad with temps. No arctic hammer. I mean that’s a win.

what a pit. 29f for us

Put the lips' n' hips on ice, the dog logs should be covered soon.

I’m with you North Hills.

Holy! why look at this Jeremiah

No doubt it's radiational cooling when I am lower than you lol

20.5° here There’s some decent rime on the trees (for our standards)

Central/west Denver and from south of there did OK. I probably mustered together 2", most of that coming last night.

I would bet anyone, any amount of money the monkey is long gone by February 1.

It’s an outlier among all the available guidance.

I was a bit surprised it got down to 19.8....figured there would have been a higher launching pad. I'm sure it's mostly fake born of radiational cooling and will be wiped out shortly, but still-

Exactly. Just frustrating and I paid my dues. Especially frustrating when the cape had 6+ I think at least 2 times since.

Yeah, Low was 13.8°F this morning, Its a bit slick out there.