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It absolutely did here. Cars and sidewalks encased in ice. Very surprising. Not sure why as whole column would figure to be below freezing. Snowing now

But BAM is missing with the tropical forcing,sorry but hes wrong

Let's test the can kicking of the models. Below are WB EPS 12Z temp panels for the 15th. Let's see which way they trend over the next two weeks.

Lee et al (2019) identified the transition from this Pacific trough regime to the Alaskan ridge regime as most conducive to the type of wave propagation needed to trigger a reflection event, which renders the Pacific trough regime the precursor pattern. This is a remarkable extended forecasting tool given the expectation for a mid January onset of a reflection event, as this implies that the first half of January is likely to be mild and characterized by Pacific trough regime with a rapidly consolidating PV, thus the arctic low regime is also worthy of consideration here during this mid-winter-thaw period. This period will also feature a considerable Pacific jet extension as mild Pacific air infiltrates the vast majority of the CONUS and flooding becomes a concern for areas that amassed a snowpack during the early season arctic high regime. Any seasonably cold air masses are likely to be dislodged from the east coast by a primary storm track across the interior. The expected midseason progression is illustrated in the schematic below that details the typical evolution of reflection event. Note that the pattern begins to reverse in earnest approximately 5 days after the event onset, during which time the anonymously strong PV reverts to normal strength, and begins to stretch due to the building Alaskan and Aleutian ridging that retrogrades from North America. This is why it very mild at the onset of these events, during the antecedent Pacific trough pattern, but by ten days post reflection the pattern has reversed and is characteristic of an Alaskan ridge regime (bottom right above). Once the process terminates and run its course by early February, a more canonical La Nina pattern will likely ensue in the absence of the expected SSW. However, should one materialize as anticipated, another arctic high interval is possible for potential grand finale to the season.

NAM brings us a minor ice storm Saturday night

Radar starting to blossom. Looks like it may start with brief period of freezing rain

Folks, I recommend that snowman and others not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.

It’s been 9 years since I seen over a 7” storm. I’ll take snow all the time over once and a blue moon lol. Also it doesn’t snow there in the summer

Edited that about to fall not autumn

This (the bolded part) I was at a trucking job orientation and while I was there we got a 2 ft snowstorm. It was cool, but nowhere near as enjoyable as it would have been in my own town and my own home and property.

I actually think I would hate it if it kept snowing 100% of the time. Part of the joy is the rarity and the chase. Different strokes

HRRR has some junk before midnight, NAM nasomuch.

Snow is snow. If it’s rippin 3”+ per hour I wouldn’t be bored haha

It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential.

Definitely gonna do the lake effect chase in the coming years but it’s “fake effect” snow too, imo. Honestly think it would get boring to live there.

That’s fine. The accumulation of road salt will be enough. Also wouldn’t be the first time we’ve been a relative min recently

I was there once and chased in the 90s. Insanity!

My pre-season idea was for big +TNH to take over second half of January following a mid-month reflection event...this is also a great wave 2 precursor pattern for my forecast PV split in February.

It doesn't matter, people enjoy the 4-6 hour rush. There's nothing like snow in our backyards. We wouldn't treasure it the way we do if we averaged 180" a year, it's all a part of the mentality. Having to drive 8 hours for it and then back after is definitely the worst part. The chases are awesome for sure, but that's why a chase like DCL on MLK a few years ago for 20+" 2 hrs from home is epic but easier.

Been watching it regularly also. That band just seemed to jump to the north. Looks like you can see the dark clouds from that band on the 1st cam feed. I've caught many salmon around that bridge. Cool little town especially if you like fishing/hunting.

I know what OPS is, but anything newer, I have no idea. At one time, it would all have been in my brain.

I actually prefer this look to a massive almost stationary anomalous block... Massive blocks are often associated with suppression issues? Most big dog events are within -/+ NAO transitions, anyways. All in all, I'm good playing tag with offshore ridge.

True dat. The January Thaw is not a myth.

Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods.

Ya but it doesn’t last for hours on end