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It’s honestly normal for these parts.

My advisor from graduate school has a fantastic visualizer of the seasonal cycle of the MJO its associated rossby wave patterns. Very easy to see the troughing over the eastern CONUS in Phase 7 out to day 30: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Let’s Go Raaaaavens!! Fuck Pitt!

Wowww… I check back ONE hour later and suddenly everyone’s absolutely crushing cola? Spiked cola. Obviously. I love this place. Don’t like what you hear? Wait like… a minute. Maybe two. Someone will say exactly what you want to hear. Just takes a little patience. And maybe another drink.

You can run but you can't hide from that nasty, nasty Atlantic.

Please for the love of all that is well and good... we need a few days break. I have dumped more salt on my driveway in the past 2 weeks as i have done in the past 2 years. I have burnt more wood this year so far than all of last year. I am glad the Ice damns have been minor to point but I can't wait for the melt rings around trees to start in the next few weeks. I like snow but the last 5 weeks have been monotonous.

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18z AI ensembles also agree with the good look in week 2.

Only got up to 42, currently 28.8. Last cold day for a while.

I prefer a +TNA pattern.

That about sums it up-

Oh, I missed the obvious on that one. I thought it was more esoteric like SWFE or FROPA.

Hmmm... [my apologies for the format.]

That will be a big score for LC because he went with mid-end jan- March for winter to start.

@NoCORH4LI expect a big stratosphere disruption in early to mid February. Take a look at March 2023, 2018 and 2001...

Eric webb believes that so far

If a Modoki situation emerges in the Pacific, I wouldn't be surprised to see early March* open for business in the upper south, though obviously this is 100% speculation. Overall, I think confidence is growing the second half of winter will be more active. *I'll have to review the CF6s; however, if memory serves, I think March 1-15 is better for snow in Nashville than December 1-15. I know climo winter is December 1-February 28/29, but I think calendar window makes more sense in terms of our snow window.

lol I edited that pretty quickly, and yet 2 of you caught it.

Light snow again… I’m kind of loving this winter

GEFS has notably more AK ridging, than EPS. Would love to see a more +PNA.

I like the low heights in the 50/50 region too.

This pattern is beyond brutal

Think back to last week when models had 40’s up there and MHT struggled above 32. It’ll likely be same kind of deal unless that parent low really ramps up much more than modeled . Need strong SE winds for that to happen

I also posted the surface temps. Amped EPO ridge can get impressive cold in Canada quickly.

(The rare time this emoji is useful, lol) Thanks for the ninja @cbmclean