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Switched to light snow as I went from the JPJ lowlands to my dorm back at 600ft plus. Super elevation dependent or just convenient timing who knows.

We suck. Edit: I’m chasing wind and more flurries for Friday/Saturday now.

HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66, but not looking likely at this point.

Some Super Bowl fail on the GFS. Looking for scraps now.

It looks more interesting on gfs and cmc.

Hoping we can get 1"-2" here tho'. Let's see how this trends tomorrow.

GFS was still weak sauce.

Good job @WxUSAF

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

Maybe 6? It’s really better for severe. Winter definitely isn’t its place, imo.

Good win at least!

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though!

Rain , rain & more rain coming & maybe a snow shower or two lol

no JMA?

It's kind of interesting how some of the models show the snow hole there and some don't. RDPS and NAM don't have it, but the NAM 3k does and the HRW literally has snow on all sides of Lee County but stops right around the county lines lol. Are certain models being fed the bad data while others don't have the resolution to pick up on it?

There’s always a northern band! Preparing to get hosed in DC, but that’s fine, I guess. Likely not missing much

Max 20, Min 9.

You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges.

Snowing lightly hate with a nice band. Heavy returns headed my way too it seems.

Ok fair enough-Need a follow up tho to see if it verified. I've been looking at HRRR, RAP, SREF and others like it for as long as we could see weather models on the internet. Consistently a letdown and consistently incorrect no matter how many hours away it's crazy.

Meh, IMO the rap is best at extremely short term soundings

If we can squeeze out 2", Saturday morning could be pretty wild on the roads with the plunging temps and howling winds.

Daggone the RAP-that's some quality reachin right there -legendary.