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I’m not gonna lie, because of how knowledgeable you are when I read that first line and for a half second I thought you were confirming the NAM was run on a windows 95 computer.

Definite got colder,CF is already trough Tn per RAOBS

I still have 10-12” for the northwest crew using the internal snow ratio calculation the RRFS uses if it’s any consolation. The crazy thing was how far the warm nose blasted in PA. That was wild. Freezing rain all the way past the turnpike

Let’s see what the GFS says

This is supposed to replace the NAM (what is it smoking)

But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance.

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope.

We made great progress at 12z and I liked the nams through 36. Let’s see what the jv models have vs the middle school model set.

I’ve used that model a couple times so my first thought was this is no way ready for the big leagues It needs to go back to AA ball for a year

Noting a hint of concern among members.

3k was pretty amped too.

18z NAM

FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.

That NAM run wasn’t great but we’re still 36hrs out and things are going to continue to fluctuate. Any further North and there’s going to be some serious ZR issues for Southern parts of the area. Even as is, the NAM has about a 30 mile swath of 0.10 to 0.20 more or less over 95 with closer to a half inch South of Philly and into DC.

The NAM looked similar for a while and then maybe showed its range. I remember it before some big storms it scared people. Just have to let the runs play out.

It’s usually correct too which is a concern

I’m more disappointed that it looks worse with the coastal portion Monday. Thats probably the difference between 12” and 18”

problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places

This is kinda noise level to me but might be IMBY bias - re: your post below, fair enough.

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

NAM is a warning to stay up later Sunday night and remove the accumulated snow from your driveway and sidewalks before the sleetfest and or freezing rain starts.

primary once again trying to stick its nose where it doesnt belong

As long as I get any color not in blue. I’m good.

I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. We’re also definitely getting sleet at least up to I-80 and maybe even up to the CT coast eventually, it’s just a matter of how big the initial thump is and how long it can hold back the sleet line.