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Maybe Walpack was closer to -40° with the great cold air drainage back in January 1994 before the relatively new weather station was installed. Climatological Data for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - January 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 862 86 - - 1263 0 4.34 39.0 - Average 28.7 3.2 16.2 -9.6 - - - - 9.0 Normal 34.9 16.7 25.8 - 1215 0 3.50 11.6 1994-01-01 27 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-02 40 M M M M M T T T 1994-01-03 45 23 34.0 7.0 31 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-04 25 20 22.5 -4.3 42 0 0.34 4.0 5 1994-01-05 26 18 22.0 -4.7 43 0 M 3.0 7 1994-01-06 32 12 22.0 -4.5 43 0 M 0.0 6 1994-01-07 15 11 13.0 -13.4 52 0 0.07 1.0 5 1994-01-08 15 10 12.5 -13.7 52 0 0.82 7.0 M 1994-01-09 30 7 18.5 -7.6 46 0 T T 8 1994-01-10 34 7 20.5 -5.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 7 1994-01-11 24 -1 11.5 -14.4 53 0 M M 7 1994-01-12 28 12 20.0 -5.8 45 0 0.00 0.0 6 1994-01-13 33 16 24.5 -1.2 40 0 0.39 6.0 10 1994-01-14 38 27 32.5 6.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-15 35 3 19.0 -6.5 46 0 0.17 2.0 7 1994-01-16 M -8 M M M M T 0.0 6 1994-01-17 14 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 6 1994-01-18 31 4 17.5 -7.8 47 0 1.36 12.0 M 1994-01-19 31 -11 10.0 -15.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-20 8 -16 -4.0 -29.3 69 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-21 11 -29 -9.0 -34.2 74 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-22 12 -28 -8.0 -33.2 73 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-23 30 4 17.0 -8.2 48 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-24 33 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-25 47 30 38.5 13.3 26 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-26 34 9 21.5 -3.8 43 0 0.31 4.0 12 1994-01-27 12 -15 -1.5 -26.8 66 0 0.12 M 13 1994-01-28 28 -15 6.5 -18.8 58 0 M M 11 1994-01-29 54 -28 13.0 -12.4 52 0 0.76 M M 1994-01-30 39 19 29.0 3.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-31 31 5 18.0 -7.5 47 0 0.00 0.0 M

GSP to Lynchburg and a line of 75 miles either side of that is going to jackpot this storm. Early accums last night along the border of NC/VA and now heavier rates down south should leave everyone solidly in the 6-8" range when this is done with a few higher lollipops. Radar is loaded!!

Per Greg Fishel on Raleigh area I have to be very careful the way I word this. As I have stated from the beginning with this storm, it's not a textbook case. There are a lot of unique qualities and idiosyncrasies that are causing a lot of meteorologists, including myself, to tear their hair out! The general consensus is that the higher the resolution of a model, the better the forecast. And a lot of times that's true. It's like taking a picture of houses on the other side of a lake. The lower resolution camera will see 4 houses as 1, while the higher resolution camera will see all 4 houses clearly. But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors! it is true that the high resolution guidance is killing this event for the Triangle. But the actual observations across the state are already contrasting with what these models are showing. Sometimes you have to take a step back and think about the meteorology and not just regurgitate model output. Having said that, could I be wrong with my 4-7? Sure could. But even if that happens, I will not change the way I forecast the weather. If my job was solely to read a map and share those numbers wtih you, how much value do I have? I would hope you would expect me to go beyond that and attempt to add a human element to my forecast. So I'm sticking to my guns. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. With the kind of solid to liquid ratios we're looking at, were not gonna need a ton of precipitation to achieve those totals. Time will tell. Thanks for reading. I'm making this post public so as many people as possible can find out about the product I offer here.

Yeah...I am not sure as of now wilmington gets anything from the coastal! Forecast i heard is for the low to rapidly intensify. We will see. But like u said...the low is not really moving up the coast but out to sea. Not good imo.

Meso discussion out!!! Expecting increasingly heavy rates this afternoon .

It had a crazy phase with the NS energy diving south and the energy taking the southern route- not a likely outcome.

I noticed you said, ended up with? Am I missing something? Radar is still lit and NOAA and Weather Channel show snow lasting till late tonight.

Reed Timmer is on the NC/SC line, I think on 26:

It’s been brutal. It’s sunny at my house here now. Hoping it’ll pick up some this afternoon, a shame to waste the coldest air in 3 years on nothing.

-15 this am at KILN, -9 at Lunken. coldest air of the season afaik

Not gonna get into it back-and-forth but at least have to mention that of course the Earth has warmed the past 30 years or whatever it's been. But to what end? You see the doom and gloom climate change people keep trying to say "well because of it this bad thing is gonna happen or this bad thing is gonna happen." Some of it talking about "the end of the world" or cataclysmic destruction. But they keep moving the goal posts when those destructive things don't occur. It's irresponsible at best. Because we look at things in years and decades, but the bigger picture is in centuries. All climate is cyclical. Climatologist Dr. Judith Cohen absolutely agrees with climate change but is vocal regarding the fact no one actually knows what long-term effects it will have.

It’s very special.

I can’t believe Wake gets the shaft on this one. I’ll be in the cliff divers.

really need another inch or two up here, existing snow is getting pretty slushy and gray

The Tri-Cities are really overachieving, with that area approaching a foot now

ICON finally joined the party on this next system and doesn't have a bomb anymore

we are some what active, pop in. You’re still on the peninsula?

We have 8" already just south of town and pouring snow! Might get a foot with these rates!

And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January. Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it. LOL. We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend. Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps. January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal. Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many. What a month of weather we have had. Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer. As for February? I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before. Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that.

Better than nothing. I’d buy

I hope that you make it!

22/20.2 South of Clayton GA. Convective band with huge flakes just back building overhead. Everytime it looks like it's gonna slack up it gets going again. Just shy of 6 inches now. Over an inch in the last 30 minutes.

I mean, we have an inch and a half here right now. lol at that depiction. .