All Activity

Latest Natty Blend. For both events ofc

Wet down here just shoveled around 1” here good snow ball making

The burst centered around 4am left me a nice .4 on the ground. It was cool, small flakes for a few minutes then big fatties for about 10 minutes before it wound back down slowly.

They hinted at that, but still quite a bit of disparity. AI aside, Its the GFS and a few of the CAMS that have more snow and are more expansive with the precip.

Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here.

We got the moisture back but lose the cold

She’s charging west, boys

About 1.5" here. I'd say almost a full 1" more than just down the hill less than a mile from me. Temps must have really mattered to get it on the ground.

I guess I never saw this as two separate events. Just waves along the boundary and AI and reggie had the position placed more consistently. Qpf gonna qpf.

1-2" in the forecast here. See how trends go today but probably a good forecast. Maybe 3" or so closer to the coast.

Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier.

Beautiful sunrise, purple/pink/orange skies every thing is white. Winters back. 0.6" round 1

No doubt all the major models have trended west and with more snow in NC. Euro, GFS and NAM have all trended better.

Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow- KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast. An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast. However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low- levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall totals.

Light coating mostly Styrofoam puffs

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February "Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

Hopefully we'll see a lot of that over the course of the next few weeks.but only on days you don't have to drive.

Mostly sleet here but road is turning white now

Had a few flakes/ snow grains earlier. But radar returns now are just east of me.

We really need two threads now. The nowcasting of this mouse fart is drowning out what looks to be a decent snowstorm tomorrow.

Good luck for Sunday-it’ll be a decent event because I’m away lol. Hopefully between today and tomorrow something for everyone.

6Z HRRR was a wet dream, hopefully 12z delivers and doesnt pull the rug back out on all models

Snow started here at 6:45. Light snow at the moment..

Better start snowing then

Light snow now with a dusting. Radar looks like it should be pouring snow