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I just don't think the larger scale features are in place.. temps are too warm/borderline. I would go with mostly rain, 1-3" snow upside. +EPOs in the medium range Ive seen so many times are underestimated, the surface warm air. The trend goes more cutoff, probably mid 30s or a degree or two above freezing. Without more northern stream interaction the low doesn't bomb as much.

It's interesting how different the CMC is from the GFS and ICON. The CMC completely lacks the intense follow up shortwave that drops from MN to TN and explosively amplifies the trof. On the Canadian the shortwave and its vorticity is closer to the Lakes and connected to the PV. It this feature on the GFS isn't real, the exotic solutions disappear. Heck even with the GFS evolution we get fringed. I love tracking these types of potential events for the excitement and drama, but they usually don't produce widespread snow.

Ya might catch a squall.

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario

Yea. Escapes east but close. Don’t hate it as long as euro ticks better.

The second wave is also big on the GFS. The Canadian sees none of the first wave.

Probably all know how this all ends. With us getting pretty much nothing over the next 2 weeks. Hopefully we cash in but I’m sure we will get just toyed with.

Take a look at our NWS forecast for tomorrow.

im liking the trough axis and see the 500 lp looking a little sharper/neg tilt. this delays the real deal a bit, but might be worth the wait moving forward (if this look continues to hold). gnight all.

Storm total rainfall: 0.00”

Looked worse to me

That storm blows.

I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level

That’s nothing changed from its previous runs

The second system looks like it would be primarily an overrunning setup that minors out as it moves east.

AI GFS not that interested with light amounts. Inch or less? That's a guess.

We don’t get these h5 looks very much. It would shameful to waste another one

It’s bad unusually bad this year

Storm 2 looks a bit deeper and a touch further SW than 18z. Probably snows somewhere in the southeast/Deep South at the surface with that one too.

If it's like 3-6" I really wouldn't care...prefer it TBH.

Your best post ever

This storm isnt going to stall like the gfs did at 12z. I just dont want this to be a Mid Atlantic storm .

CMC still not even in the ballpark

good juju