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Only 28 runs to go.

We're getting closer to go time, only 5 days away, so models should be coalescing around a scenario. Whether that's a large storm offshore like the GFS or no storm like ICON, or something in between. Very interesting to see all the dry air though even on the GFS during the storm.

This is a shock to the system

I was up in Tupper Lake, NY for that event. I actually had a contest with an Alaskan friend to see who could stand outside without a shirt longer. We both called it quits after about three minutes. -30s is no joke.

I like all snow but yeah try and squeeze me out a few more flakes out this way

Deeper digging trend is still there on the GEFS

Surprising but the Parkway is open north of the Folk Art Center! I’m getting some nice showers up here right now

This one whiffs, next one rains. Classic

Will be interesting to see if Upton and Mt. Holly believe their favorite model the GFS later today.

And great avatar BTW!

Don’t worry, we get a changeover on the back end!!

Yes we know. The gfs is wrong

@aldie 22 so you are content with this outcome.. I'm hoping for a little better in your yard.

I could easily see the 18th split the forum like the 12z GFS advertised… But at least we’re looking at legit big storm potential. The synoptic setup is amped.. 977 over Bangor ME giving a hint at the potent setup. Finally something to track

Canadian 12Z run is completely different next weekend to from the GFS

Moderate snow now in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

We tried to tell em. We’re onto late January

12z GFS combined snow through Sunday night.

Sunday is alive as well. My thought on this right now? Thursday seems like a decent chance to get "some" snow. Sunday seems like perhaps a bit smaller chance but comes with potentially a bigger upside.

Not quite there yet maybe, but is the time we say, “The vort is not yet been sampled correctly it’s still not in range”.

FWIW, I do think the a coastal w/ the 17th front is plausible. I think the cold front driven snow is plausible provided the GFS drop the crazy PAC storm feed. So, I do think a front w/ a wave turning into a significant EC storm is very plausible.

12z GFS is back this run for the Sunday chance with another CTP Advisory level event with heavier amounts to our east. Snow map is Only for the Sunday period.

Purty active pattern upcoming,someone should get something out of this mess

The GFS with it's 1 - 2 punch for our next model snow event. Model snow we will never have to shovel

Bonus for holiday weekend snow!