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Jesus probably pick up some today. Other than a couple of muggy days mixed in looks like perfect COC weather most of July

Goes back to what I always say in the summer. When advection and baroclinic processes are weak, only way to get heavy rains is closer to warm front and low track. There is where you have the forcing to combine with instability. Otherwise it’s a fail.

.14 for the month

Looks like a bit over 1" now at home. Nothing too heavy, just a nice soaking rainfall to help alleviate the dry conditions.

1.95 .over 4 now for July

A steining to remember so far. Hopefully filling in.

Picked up 0.62 overnight on some heavy downpours event total so far is 1.10"

It was outright nasty in MKE mainly due to the lows near 80. No relief at night. The little ac unit I had was way too small for my place so the whole week was beyond uncomfortable. The duration of 75+ dews felt the worst since I’ve lived here.

0.4 in Holyoke over the last 28 hours. I was hoping for at least a quick downpour to test out some drainage work I've done over the past week, but no luck.. peak rain rate so far about 0.18/hr, and that for about two minutes.. Will at least green up the grass a bit..

Well at least here it's been the light kind that they say is great for the lawns

Nice, your area jackpotted I think. Only around an inch here if I had to guess.

Well, I should have checked through *all* latest models. The 00z RRFS does this, and the 00z ECMWF this. So partially salvage it? The sfc low is just off the S NJ coast now, and has yet to start to wrap up, and it passes about 80 mi SE of ACK. The solid ENE sfc gradient (for July) is still coming, so I guess what the RRFS and ECMWF are showing could happen?

East winds gave us the drizzle and stable atmosphere Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Cef not even .25 and bdl .85 I think .4 around here? Thank God it's not snow lol

2 day total 7.5, using 3 sites within a half mile.

"Diamond dust" rain???

This is one of the worst short-range busts for rainfall I have seen. You go back a few days, and all global models has solid 1-3" at least up to the MA Pike and 3-6" widespread S of that! And then the difference between the 06/06z and 12z HRRR. Oooo, the HRRR brings it back N big time and the 3/12km NAM stay the course from 06z And now? W-T-...? KBED not even a drop yet. Virga storm! I know the event is not over yet, but too little too late it seems. Only swrn/srn CT verified well. Good thing this isn't winter, otherwise we'd have to drag this classic GIF out!! CoastalWx should post the same GIF but w/ the faces of ppl on the forum included (does he still have that GIF saved?).

Mean trough position in the E UFN. So solid big WxWiz weenie tstm chances are there!

Looks like we stay in semi-active to active period for the region UFN. Showers and tstms every day in some form in at least parts of region thru Sat and maybe Sun. GFS and ECMWF are a lot different for Sun. The GFS has a much stronger trough at 500 and actually develops a small nor'easter offshore. ECMWF nothing at all. The GFS solution suggests a lot of rain. Svr risk for the region highly dependent on where the sfc low tracks. Longer-range, it appears the mean trough position will remain in place in the E, so should be decent chances for some sig tstm events. Last July was quite good, but ugh, next to nothing in Aug, and quite cool much of the time. Actually had some cold air damning a few times IIRC!

100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120E by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow:

July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow

Good info. In weak flow when there is lots of storms firing and chaotic, the sheer number of mesoscale factors going at once inevitably leads to a very local environment that can support a supercell for a short time. FL this time of year, all those storms that fire daily, those isolated wind or tornado events you see, are due to the numerous storm interactions. But it's impossible to fcst this b/c such small-scale factors can not be accounted for in the models. It's so conditional and variable! In certain cases, you can get an intense tornado in wind profile that doesn't look conducive at all. This occurs most often when you have huge amounts of CAPE (5000+) and a weak front or boundary present. A storm can fire and if it deviates a lot (more than 90 deg) from the environmental wind flow by virtue of back-building along the front/boundary, it can become a strong supercell. So even though the environmental helicity is low, the storm-relative helicity is large, and an intense tornado can result. The two most striking examples of this was the Plainfield IL Aug 28, 1990 and Jarrell TX May 27, 1997 events. Both devastating F5s and the storms deviated a very hard right w/ CAPE ~7000 present.

Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.