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im excited

From December until January 2nd subsurface. You can see very little movement has occurred but there is some decent potential showing up that the WWB event showing up may in fact trigger a kelvin wave that has some umpphhh behind it. Im curious if we can finally knock out the pesky cool anomaly that has been around even during the last Nino event around 140W in the subsurface. Im not so certain we push Nino status going into Spring and summer but certainly worth watching if more WWB's start to develop as time goes on. Fun stuff! Beginning of January a bit warmer than I expected but should quickly reverse course in the next week and finally dislodge the cold across Alaska and NW Canada.

That and probably genetics. You have at least some longevity in your bloodline. I attribute my own good fortune to pure luck. No one in my bloodline has made it out of their 70s. I like dad bod…I’m gonna use that for me! And one more thing/this winter is growing more sour by the day.

maybe see if Belichick wants to leave UNC

yep - it's the all-timer.

We've only had one month. And in that month, this year beats 93/94. WX/PT

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. Miller B potential?

On the other hand, if this pattern coming up is nothing more than another tease, I am ok with a really early spring....just got my first seed catalog in the mail and the boys start indoor baseball this weekend, so I could go either way.

0z GFS is looking a lot more interesting for the chance on the 15th. Definitely room for possible improvement at the surface with this look at H5.

Yes it has looked and felt like winter. Good vibes, at least.

Right? Hopefully we can have a nice mid winter run for once. Not complaining though, despite the overall lack of snow, it has felt like winter for a change. Now lets gets some bigger systems and actually get an average winter for a change

even that year produced one really decent storm in feb.

Cool looking h5 on gfs @ 180hr.

Meant to share earlier

Well the AIGFS has some overrunning only 12 days out… temps cooperate. Generally 2-3” with more further south.

Same but 30 and very light freezing rain. Absolutely anemic precipitation field with this system.

Great to have your obs from the middle of the Upper Valley radar hole! Probably the worst area of radar coverage in a New England region of considerable population

Chuck, But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

All good. Just funny timing.

My bad, haha. Well here's to a really generous pattern after the upcoming warm-up.

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

So...we all know why 45/47 is going after Greenland, right? Obviously, he wants to set up some weather experiments to create a semi-permanent block that shows up annually for the months of Nov-Mar. Oh man...

28.4 Had a coating of snow earlier this evening...just overcast now.

I looked at Historical snowfall records for Hagerstown dating back to 1899. We are in midst of the worst 4 year stretch in recorded history for Hagerstown. We have averaged 12 inches a year for the past 4 years . Places further south and further east have had closer to normal seasons recently but for Northern MD areas, down into the West Va panhandle it's been a brutal stretch. And I'm not exaggerating for the worst 4 year stretch on record for HGR. It's been really ,really bad. The last season above 20" was 20/21. Hagerstown area average is upper 20's

Most of you know that I'm an optimist, but even I can't help but get a little bit worried. We're wasting half of January to wait for a 7/10 highly volatile -EPO/+TNH pattern and a wild card February and March. Will it be as bad as 22-23. 19-20, 16-17, etc.? I don't think so yet.