All Activity

Here comes the next round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak

Low of 67 with .02” of rain. My P&C now has me failing to reach 90 today, guess we’ll see how early the cloud debris and storms start.

NWS ILX in Lincoln, IL bringing up a blocking pattern taking place for Memorial Day weekend heading into next week. Heading into next week, global deterministic models suggest the development of a Rex block over the Plains. The progression of the associated upper low will ultimately dictate rain and storm potential through early next week. Current indications suggest that areas south of I-72 are best positioned for rainfall as the low portion of the block pivots up the Mississippi Valley while the high-pressure side loiters over the Corn Belt. There is stronger model agreement regarding temperatures, with mid-to- upper 80s heat forecast to return by the middle of next week.

Euro gonna bust badly for MDW

What a drop in about 6 hours

Sprinkles yesterday

Haha yep. I still think we get Slight-level severe coverage along/NW of I-95 today (even if the SPC keeps it Marginal)... we've been baking since Monday with little to no turnover in the atmosphere and storm coverage looks pretty good today.

Wxwiz should make a New England version! https://atlas.niu.edu/alerts/

I thought hrrr had a good signal. I also noticed storms took off once they hit S coast seabreeze.

Euro AI getting wetter this weekend

Overnight Euro and EPS are robust. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

5/19 HighsEWR: 99TEB: 98PHL: 98BLM: 98New Brnswck: 97TTN: 96LGA: 96ACY: 94NYC: 93ISP: 81JFK: 80

5/19 Highs EWR: 99 TEB: 98 PHL: 98 BLM: 98 New Brnswck: 97 TTN: 96 LGA: 96 ACY: 94 NYC: 93 ISP: 81 JFK: 80

Models are printing out maybe 4-7 inches by next Tuesday in Buda. Meanwhile the yellow and red rain returns just keep right on backbuilding over and over and we are absolutely LOVIN the rain! Over an inch, up to 16.1 on the year, this is very good for our part of Texas in mid May.

So 95-98 MTW to maybe 58-65 Friday?

mesos were so-so, but you could see how a very solid event could get going along I-90 ish

perhaps another highly dangerous flood

73/68 at midnight in PWM is rare even in peak climo. Wind just needs to go calm and it'll drop some.

I will say this event was rather impressive given the slightly anticyclonic flow aloft. Usually w/ such hot temps and that kind of flow aloft, it remains capped. One thing though the cell coverage did to rage into a SQLN at first. Cells were small clusters but intense.

The NBA conference finals are off to an insane start.

I may have mentioned this before, but there is something physical about the NH seacoast that make tstms better or intensify here. Today was no exception, and two waves back-to-back! Isles of Shoals gusted to 63 mph. I realized this anecdotally as a kid being at Hampton Beach on vacation each summer, but that can have bias b/c everything is larger than life when you are kid, and any beach view is going to look more impressive overall for storms. Once the SPC hourly mesoanalysis product came out, I started to watch closely. What seems to be a factor is that there is at times locally higher 0-1 or 3 km shear/helicity on or just off the NH coast. Despite the cool ocean temps, a sea breeze here appears to result in intensification of storms in the area. Not necessarily svr, but a line of showers suddenly becomes active w/ CGs and weak mesos form, as one example. I've seen too many times for it to be just coincidence. What may be happening is this - first, once you get to the MA/NH border, any marine stabilization from S of SW winds coming S of LI basically becomes a non-factor. Second, and most importantly, the low-level winds over Cape Ann are briefly lessened, then pick up again once over the ocean, only to slow again once reaching the ME coast. So this sets up locally better low-level shear/helicity profile for cells to feed off of. For years, I have informally called it "The Hampton Effect." One of most outstanding example was on May 21, 2006. A nasty bowing squall line was ripping across central/southern New England. Once the northern part of the line got E of ASH, it gusted out enough that the leading edge cells weakened considerably, so there was nothing but RW-/RW and a bit of thunder. Once that outflow got to I-95, an isolated supercell developed very quickly and produced tornado at Hampton Falls. Lasted only about 30 sec, but it was clearly visible as a stout narrow column. See story here: https://www.timesargus.com/news/weather-service-confirms-tornado-hit-coastal-n-h/article_ed848d36-9e43-5117-aae8-97098039f6ab.html A waterspout also occurred not far offshore from Rye Beach. When I saw this and the radar loop, I said, "you've GOT to be kidding me, since when in New England does a tornadic supercell form on a edge of a gust from from a decaying squall line?!" And SSTs on the NH coast are still pretty cold in mid-May, yet that did not impede things at all. I think the only other time I was flabbergasted like this was the two mini-supercell tornadoes occurred in the Brunswick ME area on Thanksgiving in 2005. This was after a couple of inches of snow has just fallen here in the previous several hours!