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Didn't mean to imply ice at all. Just thought PF would be interested

Amen! Now it's just "accepted" somehow, for better or worse (worse most likely, but oh well!). It is December 29, and there are now 16 (!!!) pages in the January medium range thread already...and probably half of those are whining and complaining that some 200+ hour setup doesn't look HECS-like enough at one cycle when it was perfect 6 hours earlier. I swear, some people think or expect that we get wall-to-wall cold and/or snow for weeks on end (a'la 2013-14 which was quite an exception), when that's not how it works around here. You take the favorable periods that come and go, and hope something good and wintry works out. Just because we may at some point flip back to "meh" and somewhat warm for a time doesn't mean it's going to be a torch with nothing through early March. All cynicism aside, I am optimistic (as much as one can be in these parts) for January. I think we likely score at least one really solid event that will be Folks to Jaws worthy. Not necessarily a HECS (probably not), but a good area-wide high end warning level snow, bigger than we got last year or the previous winter.

I think the dry conditions(outright drought) in some areas of the forum is worth a continuing discussion. The southern edge of our forum is really dry as is west Tenn/eastern Arkansas. The southern Apps, as is typical w/ La Nina, are BN for rainfall. MBY is normal which has not been a usual occurrence of late. Thankfully, I think as we trend towards El Nino this summer....we will see a normal summer for temps, rain, and a reduced risk for endless summer next fall. If El Nino takes hold early enough, we could see cooler than normal temps later in spring.

That’s where I am (Val d’Aosta). The amount of snow is good, but there’s been some pretty good freeze thaw cycles so it’s pretty much cement. There’s some pretty cool spots of very very deep stuff along downwind ledges, but I skied into La Rosiere on the French side today and it was quite thin there with some grass showing on some trails.

Euro Weeklies load up a ton of cold air towards the second half of the month. As @WxUSAF has said several times, Canada has a great snowpack this winter compared to previous years. All very good things to see.

Same here in Rockaway borough.. backyard is still all white.

There's no law that states we can't do that.

Another record that fell was Toronto (city) daily rainfall and precip record for December 28th. The daily precip record (28.7 mm) from the 1968 snowfall record of 11.3" was broken in 2025 by the 37.3 mm rainfall (1.47") that also broke the (relatively weak) 1863 rainfall record 0.52" (13.2 mm). Many other daily rainfall records are closer to the 2025 mark and it was not an all-time monthly record, that being 1.95" (5th 1870). The only other higher daily records were 1.81" (3rd, 1841) and 1.75" (9th also 1841), so it can be said that yesterday's rainfall was the fourth greatest daily amount in December, and largest in 155 years. It barely exceeded a fall of 1.46" on the previous date in 1942. (The 1841 events may have been over longer intervals than the calendar day, some 1841-42 data are listed as cumulative totals). Unlike U.S. climate records as available, Canadian daily climate records separate out rain and snow when various amounts fall as part of a daily precip total. Unfortunately since 2017 Toronto city has only reported daily precip and snow on ground so I now need to apply conversions myself to the data, but Toronto airport still has the full breakdown and I believe all or nearly all of the precip on the 28th was rain, some probably freezing rain at first. There had been a snowfall of about 5-6 inches on Boxing Day. The 1968 daily record snowfall added several more inches on the previous day and was around 14" in total. I recall the event from my own observing near Toronto and it was a sleety kind of snowstorm with some ice pellets in the mix. Today's record daily snowfall of 15.0" is from Dec 1855! The airport daily record is probably a lot lower because its data only begin in 1938. Today's daily record rainfall was 1.34" from 1940.

Could rip tonight into tomorrow aftn. Mixing looks good

Hope

That is a really good run of the Euro Weeklies(which are now dailies!). Ridge out west w/ it bridging across to Greenland. This is generally supported by some of the colder analogs. This pretty much holds throughout the run. Now, I have been doing this for a while....it likely won't hold for 6 weeks. The weeklies kind of just roll with week one and don't really move from that pattern sometimes. As @John1122notes, that storm track is a good one if it verifies. A word of caution: There has been no more fickle beast in wx modeling than LR modeling this winter. I wouldn't develop a long term attachment!!! I have 2x30day chunks at 500 posted. I mainly have done that, because each kind of tells a different story - both good for winter in the Tennessee Valley. I add two control images - you know I like the control. The temps map I think is a little bit less washed out, and it gets cold on that control run! The snow map is very similar to the ensemble, and that is likely a good sign. It is basically snow climatology, but I will take average vs none. But it gives us a good idea of the storm tracks possible - sliders, cutters, and inland runners. And if you need something to be concerned about if you like snow...I have that for you as well. Now, the good thing is that BN precip prob means it has been cold. I definitely am in the school of thought that we do a lot better when cold is in place. So, there is good and bad with this map. I don't have to explain the bad.

Clouds are now breaking near sunset.

Happened on Sunday, so not due to ice. https://www.facebook.com/BlackMtnNH/

Of my 3.5” of “pack” from the other day’s snow I probably lost just over half, which surprised me considering the sub tropical climate I’m in at Lava Lake.

Update to last night: Dreamless sleep, minor headache all day, took a two hour nap this afternoon and finally got a little energy Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Full cover. Lost about half of it..but still 100% covered.

Mine was the Halloween storm in 2011 which shut the grid down for a week in my neighborhood. My initial reaction was, what the eff was that?

So true- but I’m waiting on any real tracking until Saturday when you return to the area. I don’t care what the calendar says- that starts the DMV winter

Snow cover decreased, but not destroyed in the Johnnycake mountain area of Burlington CT; sunset rays doing a great job of illuminating the neighborhood houses...

You are talking to a group over analyzing the 252 hour models. In like 5 years this has become normalized. Back in the day, we’d mercilessly troll wennies who would do this.

Yup…we 100% solid cover about 3-4” deep. Lost about half of it, but still full cover.

Why would you even summon him? Shut up Chuck.

Wait about 12 hours. I’ve been checking in here and there and there have been no less than 27 mood changes between 0z and 12z.