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Skies brightening...sun poking through a bit. 59F/DP 58F

I'm not arguing that the season will look east-based in the mean in terms of sensible weather, but I think there will be greater variability than the typical east-based season for the reasons stated.

Well, you have the SST anomaly map....if you look at absolute SSTs, they are mainly relegated to the central Pacific. I believe you have stated in the past that bc of CC we have crossed a critical threshold whereas convective forcing is now dictated more by there the SSTs in excess of 30C are as opposed to the greatest anomalies. Yes, I agree on the split forcing.....this is the competing convection between the warm pool and ENSO. I feel it will be weighted more towards ENSO early, and flip to more warm pool guided for a time mid season into February. If you look at the modeled rainfall rates, they actually favor the central convection. Perhaps the most prominent impact of climate change is the battle royale that is constantly waged between a plethora of competing sources of convective forcing given the unprecedented degree of heat that is stored in the oceans as the climate continues to warm at an accelerating rate. Winter 2026-2027 is poised to provide those on the east coast with a front row seat to the main card match facilitated by an immense barrage of WWBs between two juggernaut sources of convective forcing in the record El Niño and central-based warm pool. An examination of the convective forcing via equatorial precipitation anomalies throughout the eastern and Pacific basin yields a similar story to that of the velocity potential. The axis of heaviest convection is located furthered east in December when El Nino, at 155 degrees longitude, while El Niño is most prominent in that battle for convective proxy. It shifts westward to approximately 163 degrees longitude in January, as the central mode becomes a bit more dominant around the midway point of the season. And continues to hold fairly steady at around 162-163 degrees longitude throughout the month of February. This 155-160 mean position of the sheared convective axis as a result of the two competing centers is consistent with both the 1982-1983 (left) analog, as well as the basin-wide composite (right). The 1982-1983 season is rapidly distinguishing itself from other analogs due to its' similarities to a unique set of circumstances that play a crucial role in dictating exactly how this winter season ultimately evolves. These factors include the ultimate peak intensity of El Niño, considerations that impact the behavior of the polar domain, such as the solar cycle and state of the stratosphere, in addition to the precise evolution or El Niño that will be so critical to its' interaction with the central Pacific warm pool that will dictate how convective forcing influences our sensible weather.

He’s been in Holland for over a week, so don’t think so

3.26 inches total so far at my station

Man, did he(T Blizz)ever have ma nature shut his yapper up.

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well.

September 28 1983: Late summer-like temperatures arrive in Minnesota with 91 degrees at Montevideo and 90 degrees at Elbow Lake. 1895: A 'furious wind' at Pleasant Mound in Blue Earth County blows down grain stacks and corn shocks. For Monday, September 28, 2026 1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum) 1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston. 1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel) 1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 28 Mon National Drink Beer Day 28 Mon National Family Day 28 Mon National Neighbor Day 28 Mon National Sons Day 28 Mon World Rabies Day 28 Mon Ask a Stupid Question Day 28 Mon International Day for Universal Access to Information 28 Mon International Poke Day 28 Mon International Right To Know Day 28 Mon National North Carolina Day 28 Mon National Self Awareness Day 28 Mon National Strawberry Cream Pie Day 28 Mon Fish Tank Floorshow Night

The stratospheric interactions are also related to the actual tropical forcing in addition to the state of the QBO. During the later portion of the winter in 1983, it was more of a full-basin SST configuration compared to 1997-1998. All the guidance has a warm pool extending up along the West Coast of Mexico. This along with the record warmth in 1-2 and 3 lead to the forecast for split forcing leading to a strong eastward lean. During many recent seasons warm pools off the equator had had areas of forcing west of Mexico and to the east of Hawaii.

My theory on why 1997 occurred where it did in the solar cycle is that it was Earth's response to the early acceleration of CC.

Omg about the funniest thing ever of this storm.

I think this season will feature late blocking via wave reflection rather than a SSW given the combination of descending solar and W QBO, but the strong signal among guidance (likely overstated) in conjunction with the strong match to 1983 buttresses this postulation....all of this in conjunction with the locale of the warm pool in the central Pacific renders any westward propagation of ENSO merely a constructive interference bonus of sorts, but not a requisite development.

Raining good here. Keep it coming.

Expounding on this point....December 1997 in one of the most intense, east-based El Nino events in recorded history, yet had a decent -NAO. Why? Take a look at where 1997 occurs in the solar cycle (left side of chart) in conjunction with a strong easterly QBO....your overreliance on ENSO as a modulator of the NAO is too reductive here, Chris. Now check where 2026 falls... And every other super-El Nino.... Why is blocking favored GENERALLY earlier during E QBO and later during W QBO? Holton-Tans relationship. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Since winter 2026-2027 will occur in the descending phase between the max of solar cycle 25 and the min that will occur early next decade, each of these previous two scenarios warrant consideration with a preference for the former, solar min/W QBO data set given the geomagnetic energy is will likely be peaking during break winter 2026-2027, thus any SSW will likely be delayed until latter February, or more likely a final waring in March. This does NOT necessarily preclude the incidence of minor warming and/or tropospheric wave breaking earlier, though. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO : The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season. The final warming is of course the exception to this rule, while it is usually more relevant for spring, it can and does sometimes occur early enough to have an impact for the major population centers in terms of late season cold and/or snowfall. Below are a couple of annotations to aide in the simplification and visualization of these relationships.

80's for one day in early October isn't earth shattering..overall a cool pattern starting next weekend.

And you thought you have got ripped off in Meuthen? How about the 3 day total so far for Rockport MA? Also, Billerica! As @CoastalWx would say GWDLT! And would be saying if Weymouth was not near 7" "deeply occluded low banded precip SUXS!"

70s for you though.. womp womp

5.01” here. Crazy gradient

Just hit 8” exactly, storm total

I wonder if I will ever get a travel baseball game in this fall... As of right now, it looks like Sunday is another washout.