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I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards. I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough that completes the total L/W structure ... appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. That did not change over night. Stubborn. Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance. That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies. Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do. That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons. It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms. One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time. The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely. I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations. High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers yeah.

Weenies clutching the CFS.

I can tell you how I would cope if this ever missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) is a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.

Or maybe he could try protecting his community against the Gestapo…

I heard that. Good luck up your way buddy. Hopes are high right now. Let's keep the good vibes going.

Google AI Weathernext 2.2e841369r16r4y1` trend over the past few runs. Ripped from another forum so you may have to look at the time stamps to see, but the current trend is a friend to you TRI folks: that is a 10:1 ratio too

Oh come on @Rjaybut it shows a hit LOL!!

Not positive but I don’t think downsloping will be an issue here. I think that cut off is the NW shield. .

That would be significant.

And it’s only up to 7:00 am SATURDAY

I miss the short lived (or available) SuperSwiss. That one was sexy

Xmas Eve morning bro! That morning run set the stage for all the rest of guidance to come back in line and gave us a blizzard. I actually remember it quite vividly.

Worst of the worst

For MBY only, I will bet the streak until it is over. But Im trying real hard Ringo..

LWX AFD has not a word about the busted low temp forecast. The AFDs in general have gotten a lot more boring and cookie-cutter since I first started following them in 1993.

You can't make the public happy...

I wonder if the CFS incorporates more of that analog data...no clue, just thinking out loud, as that would explain the violence.

17 here at the house. GSP stated in their morning AFD the the National Blend is suggesting .25 to .50 of QPF with ratios of 15 to 20:1.

Agree that there will be a massive deform band

www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/climate-forecast-system All about the CFS, fyi. Rarely see this one cited....

I was at APP when then happened and did not get to experience on the home land. Boone got the shaft with that one If I recall. But yes, as of now anything is possible. Im issuing a 12 hr excitement ban for myself. Hopes do not increase til 12 hours before onset. Just enjoy the digital flakes for now

More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend.

Well, it probably whiffed....not that it's beneath him.

At least its something to watch...We have the perfect base for milder tepid SWFE....get a few fresh inches then put a nice crusty top on it and build that way but we're probably out of SWFE luck for a long time now

It really is a lose-lose situation. We either finally get one right or we are always wrong.