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Mixed feelings about this severe watch since there is only 1 severe watch in PA so far and the heavy precip echoes coming out of eastern PA into NJ are shrinking

Holy Dewpoints. Heat Advisory territory, especially S-NJ. Heat indexes are over 100.

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs: 1997-98 2015-16 1982-83 1965-66 I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these.

Dont get the watch but ok.

sunny and warm in central S.I.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until midnight for NE MD and DE URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southern New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large hail this afternoon as they track east-southeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic. The threat for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase this evening as one or more clusters develops. A tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell.

Even this evening has a lot of questions. While there is general agreement that a cluster of storms drops south through NJ/DE, some of the CAMs have storms building back to the west and catching much of central MD.

Severe Watch Issued BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 435 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-015-025-029-035-041-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-047-061-071-079-081-085-087-105-119-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SULLIVAN WESTCHESTER PAC011-015-017-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-067-069-071-075- 077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-127-131-133-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK ANZ338-430-431-450-451-452-453-454-455-530-539-540-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/

.80” in Greenfield.

TORCH!!

I would be ok if it wasn't hot anymore...thanks

Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective

This afternoon turned horrific. After that riveting down pour went thru, temps dropped and now into the 50’s with rain and a breeze. Absolutely awful day .Some kind of a pseudo back door . 1.29”

Paul, I started looking at the difference between the daily nclimgrid and daily raw station data for Chester County and surrounding area for 1951 forward. Daily data for nclimgrid starts at 1951. A sample of that analysis is attached, showing that the difference varies by station. This is interesting. The difference may be amenable to modeling. Cell size for the nclimgrid is about 2 X 2 miles--the red squares are each a cell with a time series. When looking at CAG, we are seeing an average for the county of these squares. Can you provide the station list for your recent analysis?

A discussion we can take over to the main seasonal thread, but I just wanted to state that the record shown by Dr. Klotzbach is definitely in jeopardy. To reiterate the point already made in above posts, given the rate at which Edouard was organizing over a mere 24 hours, I concur that it would have become a hurricane. Formation a bit further southeast over the east-central GOM, and it may have even bombed into a major prior to landfall. Granted, the environmental conditions weren't perfect. Lingering pockets of stable airmass in the mid-levels did appear to interfere with the convective envelope at times. But shear was light, and the immediate surface temperatures prime for rapid deepening once the system mixed that out. Location of genesis and the short window of time were ultimately the most critical factors in Edouard's development.

Only if they can be screamers . With no cold air this winter benchmark Rainers are not wanted . Maybe it’s the season of damaging big screamers

I ended up with an impressive ~8.85” of rain in August.

Detroit had 10 days of 90F, looks like they just touched 90F today for the 11th day of the year.

at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño

87 with a dewpoint of 73 here. Feels like a steambath out there. Hopefully we'll get an exciting t-storm a little later.

I was involved in a caveat from last season…

The thunderstorms that just initiated in northern pennsylvania shot up hail cores in a hurry.