All Activity

14.6

Is there any chance this could not dig as far south as being shown? The pac ridge could be overdone a bit?

It’s still right there, but would like to start seeing some hits by tomorrow

My gut feeling is that if you drive that much arctic air into the eastern Gulf, there will be a more vigorous northward return flow up the east coast. A storm that gets trapped and shunted east like the GFS is trying to depict would likely be less dynamic. Such intrusions of cold air are associated with superstorms like Mar 1993 and the Blizzard of Feb 1899. So the models with more robust northward tracks are probably handling this better.

WB 0Z EPS

I don't think we want the trough to dig to Georgia and close off. Tennessee or Kentucky would be better

April

Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.

Aigfs is nice hit for LI. 4 straight runs of correcting nw

Verbatim the 06z GFS is a crusher for s.e. VA probably 24-36 inches and only analogue I know about would be March 1-2, 1980. I believe that one gave DC area 5-10" and cut off in s.e. PA to ACY. Stalled, looped and went off towards Newfoundland. Northeast states stayed dry and very cold (record cold in fact) Disclaimer -- not my forecast for what this will actually do, just a p.b.p. of the model run.

That precip field of snow from SE VA northeast along the coast through ENE missing most to the east seen on many models is eerily similar to Boxing Day to my weenie eyes. So there is precedence for that debacle.

Its January. Spring can wait until May.

Defintely

Unless the EURO/ AI start shifting back NW, it really is an eastern zones threat if anything.

Up to 120 on the 06z GFS looked good, as if it might crawl the coast, but then then it stalls off the Carolinas and then goes northeast and out to sea.

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

Think by Thursday it’s go/no go

ICON EPS FWIW

Yep south gets crushed. I mean the last storm also had them getting crushed.

You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980.

6z Ai GFS is further west compared to 0z gets eastern MA and cape hard.. advisory snows to here

Time to book your hotel room in Bermuda.

Its only Tuesday

Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.