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And that’s 10:1. Should be 15:1 etc. I like that.

Yeah I think most modeling showed light snow before midnight and after 10 am or so tomorrow, and most of our accumulation came from the midnight to 10 am period. The question is, do I stay up late to see it or do I get up early? Or do I just make some more coffee and go from there? haha

Yeah, I spoke with a Met at MRX about that and he just said maybe the heavier bands were just going further NW than what was projected. I told him about the flawed official Station in Pennington gap and I thought that may be the culprit or Models were suggesting downsloping off Black Mountain. He just said we already had more than what they had forecasted for us and the bands were probably further NW. I like them but, I think it probably came off I was bringing it up to them because of already having as much snow as they had for us for the entire event.

GFS has that dry hole over Raleigh at hr18. Looks good for western Carolinas and eastern NC though.

Ratios are really getting up there now. I'd guess 17:1 or maybe 20:1 I've had just over .25 liquid equivalent so far. Most modeling had me maxing out around that amount.

Just up the road next to the zoo we have a little over a inch. The primary system is yet to come that’s where we’ll get the snow I believe. .

A very enticing setup possible around mid-month (h/t to psuhoffman in the mid-Atlantic forum). We've got a classic west-based -NAO but also a -PNA and trough over much of the Rockies and Plains, which can keep things from getting too suppressed and possibly bring a big one up the coast. I'd keep a close eye on this window.

GFS looks really good for the western Carolinas through 12hrs.

Tiny flakes mixed with sleet in Florence.

Love the idea of this potential getting juiced up a bit but can we not do 1 inch in Baltimore while just to west everyone gets 6-10

GFS looks really good for the western Carolinas through 12hrs.

I have keep thinking returns are getting better. I live in the Cedar Bluff area, and it seems like I am at a cutoff point. I maybe have a fourth of an inch. I took a little drive towards Halls, and they have at least an inch or more as far as it looks I did not get out and measure. I hope we are going to start getting those better returns soon

I think even Chuck admitted a couple years ago that there is a difference between a full latitude trough causing a -pna and some STJ or mid latitude wave undercutting blocking.

I’m going to deliver one of the greatest rants of all time tomorrow when I wake up and Raleigh is legitimately getting blanked. It will be epic, it will be my life’s work.

Nice looking tarrot card.

That statement isn't even correct. January 2010 wasn't below average temperaturewise, and both November 2009 and March 2010 were really warm. 2009-10 had historical snow, but it was done in a very short window, and wasn't really historically cold. After snowmageddon, the winter was pretty much over, and we had 90 degree temps in early April (years like 95-96, 02-03, and 13-14 - all wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters - it was still snowing at that point in the season).

It’s a snowglobe! No telling what we will wake up to, should hammer tomorrow too! .

00z rgem looks good

Just got home from South Knoxville... definitely a snowfall gradient over the area as expected. Maybe a little over an inch there, but here in west Knox we're at about a quarter inch so far

Reach! That would be an earlier than expected onset for the southern upstate of SC

+QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some....of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.

Usually a good sign for me

I have this fight with OEM alot.

let's see if they approach -30F