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BS, its well known that glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly due to climate change. The Himalayas are no exception. This area is changing rapidly due to climate change. The increasing local risk was described as a "crisis" earlier this year: https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/ Kathmandu, 18 March 2026 – Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are melting at an accelerating rate, with ice loss rates doubling since the year 2000, according to two new landmark reports that will be released on 21 March 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to mark World Day for Glaciers. The reports, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region from 1990 to 2020 and HKH Glacier Outlook 2026: Insights from 50 Years of Himalayan Glacier Monitoring, provide the most comprehensive evidence yet of glacier change in the region. They reveal a total loss of up to 27 metres of ice thickness since 1975, sounding an alarm for the nearly two billion people downstream who depend on meltwater from the ‘Water Towers of Asia’. “This isn’t a distant problem; it’s a crisis unfolding in real-time, with new disasters every summer and monsoon. The fact that ice loss rates have doubled this century should shock us all into action,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General of ICIMOD. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya is at a crossroads. The rapidly escalating impacts we’re seeing from water uncertainty to catastrophic floods underscore that we are in a critical decade for the cryosphere. We must scale up monitoring and invest in adaptation now. These aren’t blind spots becoming surprises anymore; they are our new reality.”

Today’s release for last week averaged out has a notable rise in 1+2: 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 To compare, here’s 1997: 27AUG1997 3.3 2.6 1.9 0.4 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Euro and GFS both out to mid September with no tropical development. The question may start getting real soon... Can we go a whole season without a hurricane?

Topped out at 78F here yesterday.

I don't know, Many times in WNW or NW flow, mountains to the W do well, then is often a gap due to downslope flow between IAD and DCA, and then it picks up again due to the bay breeze and higher dew points E of I95, But its not easy tell on any given days the "DC split" occurs, and w/ an EML present, that makes it more complex b/c nighttime convection is more common and often surface-bases, so downslope flow is not as much of a factor.

Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas — known as "Tornado Alley", does the NWS consider adding Illinois to this list? https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/illinois-sets-us-state-record-for-most-tornadoes-in-a-year/1927594

Four days in a row svr risk in this area, esp. this time of year? Sure ,lots of days get upgraded to slight risk the day of and we get 4 days in a row of svr risk, but to have days 3, 4, and 5 outlooked means synoptically it is defined and impressive, which means higher-end svr wx possible. Usually in this part of the country, you don't get multiple days in a row w/ svr wx from NW or WNW flow b/c one wave of convection and it s/w trof clears things for moisture, and it takes a bit of time to recover. Or the front/boundary gets pushed farther and farther S w/ each wave of convection. But the way the mid and upper level ridge is during this period looks like it may force things to be in the same general area repeatedly. Why not? Every so often things do work out for relentless stormy wx in a region! One might say, "4 days in a row, *everyone* should cash in and get crushed at least once during the period!" I hope so. W/ an EML present, you can do some nice things during the overnight hours, esp. with crazy LTG.

US National Weather Service State College PA CTP Warning Counts So Far in 2026 SEVERE: 292 warnings is most EVER in a calendar year TORNADO: 30 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1996 (34), 2011 (40), and 1998 (58) FLASH FLOOD: 80 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1995 (82), 1998 (105), and 1996 (246) #PAwx

I only check in here from time to time but over the years I have noticed of all the big US land falling hurricanes hardly anyone discusses Camille. I have seen a few documentaries recently and although the better data was in its infancy, this hurricane seems like she could stand solidly against not only any other land falling cat 5s but cat 5s period Just wondering thats all

Yeah our best chance might be Thursday, but hrrr pretty wet tomorrow. Not sure I buy it.

Hard to pin down how much rain we get this week. Some get lucky with with heavy showers others not so much.

Same areas, from him to SE MA. Not even a tenth here. We webbed hands.

Must have rained a little at some point. Ground is wet but dry in spots.

Invest 97L -- if this system makes TS-strength, it is likely to be among the smallest TCs on record. Compare the WV image of 97L currently to an image of Macro from Oct 2008 in the Bay of Campeche, which is the smallest TC on record (both attached). The small size is a product of how unfavorable conditions are in the Atlantic overall for TCs. Yes, in the Gulf the shear is low (unlike the MDR) but mid-level dry air is an issue. Nary any other convection in anywhere near 97L! @CoastalWx will say, "still does not break the BORING pattern!!!" But wx always has something KEWL going on if you do not confine yourself w/in 5 mi of Weymouth!

Also, 97L is *tiny*. In fact, it is not that much larger in convective coverage now than smallest TC on record -- Macro in Oct 2008 in the Bay of Campeche. I attached a current WV of 97L and image of Marco. The small size is a product of how unfavorable conditions are in the Atlantic overall for TCs. Yes, in the Gulf, the shear is low (unlike the MDR) but mid-level dry air is an issue. Nary any other convection in anywhere near 97L!

I think they are holding off on PTC b/c it is not clear it will be a TS before landfall. They do not want to put up TS warnings due to this uncertainty b/c of the impact alone warnings have. It puts things different level from a EM standpoint and business/commerce. 97L looks better on sat and radar as I type this. Will they declare it a TD or do PTC by 5am?

.90” here in about 35-40 minutes, FL like deluge.

Looks like Wednesday to Friday will be our severe weather threat days

The HAFS suites like closing this off and bring a tropical storm into East Texas. As is typical with NGOM genesis, placement and timing remain critical. How fast can a tight vorticity develop? A small system like this has an intertwined advantage and several disadvantages. The main disadvantage is time. We're only looking at a small window of 24-36 hours here. The other is the environmental factor with marginal relative humidity over the adjacent landmass at present combined with dry airmass in the mid-levels countering any rapidly forming convective envelope. This could delay organization by landfall. In most cases, a small system should struggle as mid-level steering flow will mix in that airmass. But small systems can develop faster if the environmental factor is limited. Being so small is also an advantage if rapid development of intense mesoscale convection does occur and can persist. The immediate envelope moistens and persistent convection results in the formation of a small vortex under negligible shear. A large circulation would still be susceptible to pulling in the dry air. Negligible shear prevents dry mid-level airmass from advecting into a small vortex against the mid-level steering flow. SSTs are very high, so this system could outperform the TC models and SHIPs parameters if organization gets going today. Regardless, I do like this getting named by landfall, and I'm going to be a bit bullish with this one. I like a better than a weak TS (40-50 kts) and perhaps even a moderate to strong TS (50-60 kts) by landfall. Too bullish? Yes, it's a tiny system. But I think convection will blossom today and shield off any dry air entrainment. I'll favor any small system over high SSTs and negligible shear with at least marginal supporting environmental factors to outperform versus a broad system when time is the biggest factor. Fortunately, time should limit anything stronger.