All Activity

Hey wasn’t the 14ther the same one that the GFS put out 970mb blizzard for se zones about 5 or 6 days ago

Hmm did even better than I thought…thanks for posting pal.

Nice. Warmer down here with a 17*.

“We can hold our gates. We can win. “

I’ll be honest .. I rarely read your posts the last year or two . No offense , but I can’t handle people that are downers and complainers that are incessant . I’m sure you’re a good dude .. but man your posts generally are brutal and hard to continue reading

Quite possible the first half of December is way colder than second half. Just hope we are on the better side.

Only 6 other years (out of 140) since 1884 have had 3 days with below 0F temps in Burlington, VT by 12/9. The last time was 36 years ago in 1989. That seems moderately impressive.

See about a half page above, my post about euro

18z EPS is the strongest signal out of the last several runs.

4-5” of ice at the little hockey pond at the end of my street. That’s unheard of.

I tore my calf completely in half playing softball in July 24, and went skiing in January 25. Wasn’t fully ready yet, very sore and bruised the next day, so that was done for the year. Now fully healed, and hoping to get some more runs in this year. Side note: absolutely awful injury. I didn’t rehab properly, as I should have. I went to have it tested, and when I found out it wasn’t my Achilles, I figured rest would be fine, I should have done PT. I could t walk right for months, and I think it permanently altered my walk.

12z EPS mean at hour 360: At face value, this looks like quite a huge ridge for the east is inevitable. Potentially a protracted one at that. Looks can be deceiving. Such as the cases when ensembles show epic patterns that fail to come to fruition. There's actually a lot going on under the hood in the model run when you take a little deeper look into it. Ensemble means will just blend everything together and give you whatever that looks like. As it stands right now, based off of this run, at this hour of the run. That likely doesn't verify verbatim. You're seeing a smoothed out mean of different solutions. Take for instance the cluster analysis from the same run at the same time. 3 clusters for that period today. Not what you would expect to see given the above image. Especially seeing the left one as the leading cluster, encompassing the greatest amount of individual members. This is all subject to change of course based on future runs. I'm simply suggesting to stay open minded. Also interesting to note from this run of the EPS is the situation with the MJO. Personally, I'm of the firm belief that any legitimate Phase 8 attempt has not occured. For reasons mentioned earlier in this thread. Regardless of what the RMM plots are showing/telling everyone. The signal was pushed there via the strong (aided by events in the stratosphere) kelvin wave but abandoned just as it got there while the kelvin wave had continued on. That kelvin wave went on to amplify the MC forcing in the near term which has been discussed and we will likely see ramifications from. Meanwhile, keep in mind this is/has been the slow moving variety of MJO. Kelvin waves move much faster and they are the high frequency component Paul Roundy makes references of from time to time. So on this 12z run today, there are finally some surprising hints of perhaps attaining an actual period of phase 8 forcing from this MJO event. As the kelvin wave moves on from the MC region and picks up the underlying original MJO signal that was previously abandoned in phase 8. Then re-amplifying that signal and potentially in the legitimate way this time. See the following velocity potential forecast from this run. Where I have circled is the key timeframe as to whether or not that happens. As myself and others here believe, we need this suppressed phase to take over the MC completely in addition to the western hemisphere enhanced phase in order to properly accomplish that. Looking over the individual members VP forecasts, there are finally a good cluster of members doing exactly what is needed. In the timeframe that is circled. Hence the look on this mean today. Will be interesting to follow future runs in light of this considering individual members were quite literally all over the place in previous runs. There's a group of them that are on board with this idea today though.

I don’t ever feel bad for him. Dude is a constant downer. Never a fun or positive post about anything . Literally

Probably going to see a lot of north and south wobbles. I dont like where I sit currently. Cutoff will be sharp and frontogenic bands always end up narrower than expected with brutal cutoff on either side.

85mph at Berthoud Pass and 79mph on lower ground

At dinner tonight ran into Joe Theisman. I asked him if Washington called to see if he could play. I was wearing my Vikings hoodie

I don’t even remember that one, so it must have sucked. Hell, I’m numb now, nothing can break me weather wise at this point

A southward shift on the 18z Euro vs 12z below.

Def quite a good change on the 18z eps

I’ve picked up a solid 4.5” in five hours. Looks like we will get a bit of a break here soon before the second band moves in and drops another inch or two. .

That's a nice archive. I always enjoyed your maps, but I love the added info

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7th-2022

I mean, sometimes I ultimately need to bail...happens, but we aren't there yet IMHO.

If I’m thinking of the right one, That 1/6/22 system did decent here..between 7-8”. You did even better I recall.

Boston has gone without anything measurable in 295 (296?) days... probably similar for you