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Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.

Light rain moved in. Chilly damp day.

Yeah we can take the 36 hour thaws but need to avoid a 72-hr bloodbath with 1”+ rain.

Tropical cyclone four is forecast to make landfall in northern Sumatra as a moderate tropical storm. Due to its low latitude, cyclones hardly ever hit Indonesia directly. The only other landfalling one I could find was Vamei in 2001, but that made landfall as a tropical depression.

I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see

lets listen to @MJO812 whenever the MJO might enter 8-1-2. it's literally in his name!

The larger test is mid month and onward.

He actually went against the EURO in favor of the GFS last week.

Who is creating a thread?

Yeah unfortunately strong waa always wins out here. My ideals low track is south of I70 and hooking up through eastern IL or western IN

I swear he has an alarm on his Iphone that is triggered whenever MJO812 smiles.

He has a varied approach...may also be a Pacific SST chart along with sentence or six about how the models embellish phase 8 of the MJO in this "new, warmer climate".

EPS looks nice around the 3rd

Climo is tough to fight, you probably average half of places like Chicago and here.

The models are trending back north for tonight. Who tf knows any more. .

You know he's working on something, lol.

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different. A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

It's good to see those in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes getting in on some snowstorm action. Always good to see the buildup for snow and winter weather to our west. Hopefully if we build that pack, that cold air can bleed east and try to dampen down the SER that will be rearing its ugly head by mid-December.

Yeah pretty typical here. Usually getting screwed. I80 north always seems to be the jackpot. Not a fan of where I live. Lol. Hoping at least waa snows will be a good hit here.

Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO

You hate to see good starts get cleaned out only to start over again, I think it was 20-21 back where we were off to a good December with 16.1" here then the grinch appeared and the rest of that winter was mediocre with 29.5".

Peoria is pretty far south, so yeah being skeptical down there is a good move. This is probably more of an I-80 north threat.

I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic