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Now that I am back and things have settled down a bit, here are a thought or two... 1. Recent Nina winters have followed a fairly predictable pattern. Cold end to November, cold start December, flip to warm around Christmas. and cold returns for late Jan and Feb, especially middle and western areas of the forum. 2. I don't trust models right now past ten days - if that. There has been a lot of feedback in the usual places. So, pivot back to point number one.... 3. To me, the real question is whether we get one final cold shot right before Christmas - 50/50 for me on that one. I think the warm-up after Christmas has been well advertised. We know how the last warm-up worked out - cold. Let's see how this one goes. 4. There are things to track prior to Christmas. I see roughly (4) windows to monitor. I will try to dig a bit deeper later. I got 0z, 6z, and 12z to look back through. Tomorrow is gonna be even crazier.

Yup, a welfare check may need to be made over there….

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oh no

You can set a clock by it

Was feeling good about that system but now 18z nam shifted way north

Going to be another winter with I80 north crew constantly cashing in while us south barely miss out. Noticing all these nw systems bullseye me then shift north as we get closer. Bring back the south shift.

GEFS likes Friday slightly more but has more upside for the Sunday system.

Funny enough though, the AIFS hates Friday and likes Sunday better.

As mentioned earlier, EPS is more onboard with Friday than Sunday. Pretty decent consensus for a light event Friday... less for Sunday. Not a lot of upside for either at least via the ens.

Gorgeous shots, every one. Well done. I love cemeteries in snow. Also the hints of red/orange/warmth that come through in snow pics/winter scenery IRL, like in these pics the cut firewood, berries, etc...the color palette is just, chef's kiss.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for the 4 weeks Dec 22nd through Jan 18th continue to look bad (mild) especially in the SE and MidAtlantic. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The hope is that they’re just pain wrong. But that’s just a hope: 12/22-28: 12/29-1/4: 1/5-11 1/12-18:

I got everything scraped/cleared out, then went to town. Amazing difference. A few spots there were almost bare ground, I still have 4 inches, plus all the snow still hanging in the trees and shrubs. Less than 5 miles and 300-400 foot elevation difference.

To be or not to be a rainer… short range says 3-6” of concrete is coming. NWS says get out your rain boots lol. I think this is going to end up being yet another surprise around here.

Brown had like 100 yards receiving but had a less than stellar game. He missed that perfectly thrown ball by Hurts late in the game for a TD which would have put the birds in good position. And the play you mentioned. Back to Hurts, during the broadcast Aikman drilled him a couple times about not seeing wide open guys for big plays and he was right.

Yup. Folks teetering. Ya hate to see it.

I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol

Just like the Tolland Massif.

What limited research I've done on those winters shows they started with northwest flows and clippers laying down a good snowpack before bigger storms came in from the southwest. Would be epic to cash in on the same this season.

18z NAM 3km smokes the high elevations. As I said before this is also a good solution for getting those flakes into the valleys. 30mph winds and temps in the mid 20’s allow those flakes to push out much farther from the higher elevations.

68/69

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God.

One is through Thursday am, the other friday am.

That would suck. But not buying it

Probably the best start to winter in my 63 years. Probably not a close call either. And that includes the late ‘70’s