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It’s another clipper. Yay

To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative Have a good night

I’m assuming we get some inconvenience snow. C -2”.

I know. I was just commenting on the trough. Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.

That 00z GFS solution is my 2nd most preferred outcome, with the most preferred being a major storm, of course.

It’s been frustrating. The medium to long range pattern looks promising, but if there’s nothing on the horizon at the end of the week, my winter enthusiasm is checking out.

What it comes down to is we just need to vanquish this persistent cool ENSO paradigm once and for all...I know some don't feel it's is a factor, but I don't mean ENSO itself....I mean the entire Pacific arena has been in cool ENSO mode for about 8 years. This is why the MJO always seems to skip over phase 8....even the past 1.5 seasons that have been decently cold, where are the big east coast storms?? The tropical forcing has still constantly deconstructively interfered with major east coast cyclogenesis for the most part. That strong El Niño a couple of years back was still left to compete with that residual cool ENSO forcing, which is why it sucked so badly.

Ultimately, I’d rather not anyway. Had enough commutes in 1” of snow this year, I’m all set with that. the 00z gfs is the perfect screw job for both systems. What a dumpster fire

The GEFS are clustering around the OP as usual, so 0z is worse than 18z. But they are not catastrophic. They don't look completely hopeless. Still some plausible path back to a snow threat. When you trace the critical shortwave(s) back to deep northern Canada, its seems incredible that such a minor shift (100 miles) in placement of a ripple in the flow that travels 3000 miles could have such a major impact on future weather. That's just to say that a minor model error in the critical shortwave track could still cause significant model changes from here on out.

These playoffs results so far have been expected, great games - very entertaining - With all the road teams except the Chargers being the expected and the eventual winner .... Only the Packers collapse ruined it... Houston is the better team 2mar night , but they are due to loose a game and on the road against a potentially determined Steelers team may be tough to overcome...

Was up in Essex playing golf at a friend’s simulator and we got a squall warning. Left around 4:30 and there was a few dipping spots blowing around and we joked about the “deadly squall”. Dropped my friend of at his house and hit 89 south. Found the squall between Richmond and Bolton Flats. Almost white out conditions at times but by the time I got to JSpin’s area it had almost stopped. Everything was clear until about Exit 8. Heavy snow going up the hill towards Exit 7. Could see maybe a tenth of a mile, slowed down to 40 and crawled up the hill. Between Exit 7 and all the way down the Exit 6 access road there white out or near whit out conditions. Some of the toughest snow driving conditions I’ve had in a while. More snow with this than the junk that fell last night. Had another round an hour or so ago.

CMC never showed potential in this system. First time it might be right since Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat.

Difference is that ended well....

It feels like it's been a pretty active winter so far in the Adirondacks and N VT. Lots of small and medium events. I see no reason why that won't continue. Down here we've had a lot of dustings and coatings... As many this year as the past 4 combined.

Most of the game was as frustrating as this winter.

They base those stats on 500mb. Even if the 500mb progs are better, the surface predictions are no better to worse imby. Right or wrong, nobody will convince me otherwise.

Not this run...mother nature manages to queef at juuuuust the right angle to smother any modicum of dynamics for the whole weekend.

Best part is I can see it from my doorstep as it passes south of me...thankfully. DO NOT WANT.

Good news though. Even though storm one fails, storm two ushers in some very cold air after it cuts to our west and north!

I still doubt that happens....I bet we get a decent snowfall from the follow up...been my hedge all along.

It was a delicate balance tbf, the only reason we got such a great dig is because the best vorticity was centered on the southern part of the lobe so it pinched south. Without that there's nothing that really helps it do that.

At least the Pats won

Seriously, though....still should wait for the ensembles to really confirm.

Interference is claiming both in this rendition

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.