All Activity

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

1st event (I-95 screw zone):

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

Euro has two events (I think, basing off 2m temps and precip). One for the 23rd (maybe 2-4"?) and one for March 1st-2nd (rain to snow?)

What isn’t easy to verify around here. lol

hoping for something in between

Be careful with "fools gold". I got into hot water last week with that term!!!! Consistency counts for something. This is the second run for AI liking next Sunday/Monday.

41 and drizzle. I am not minding the rain to flush the dirty snow piles away.

if some of that euro AI output is sleet it'll happen. We do sleet very well in the MA.

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances. The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

More wind charts Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for us to get a snowstorm!" But seriously, I still kinda have hope for that general period around the 24th. The 12Z GFS looked craptastic for much of its run but even still showed some potential near that time. Earlier runs showed similar hints too.

Compromise works great!

It’s fool’s gold. We see it 8 days out all the time.

Well that clears things up

Very narrow geographically. Euro is slow to come out today but it’s still quite a bit further north of the GFS.

light rain. welcome and much needed still.

Wednesday is MA border north.. Friday meh and the Monday storm is east

Rain at 45. Not even close to “33 and rain”

OP run is warmer for Wednesday. More of a CNE deal.

Hopefully Euro follows suit . Need that boundary pressed down to Philly

Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd.

DRIZZLE!

It never fails! 36 hours out!