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As much as I and many others would love to see the PDO actually change that ain't looking all to good right now regardless of ENSO state to come. Weak to moderate +ENSO is a solid call still with a tip to strong if it can actually get itself together. Super is a stretch but hey weird things happen. The more time passes the more I see this being situated further west with warming lets see how things shape up over the next month.

Torch !!

If the PDO turns positive this year, then 1988 becomes the obvious anti-2026 log. In the East, 1988 was a very warm summer, followed by a very cool fall.

I agree. What happened to having spring. We haven't had spring in years. It just goes from 40 and drizzle to 85 and humid. 55 and sunny would be interesting. Sweatshirt weather doesn't exist here. Just coats to shorts.

May have to ban some today

Dendrite too. He'll be happy.

sick, miss just south here

Friday and the weekend looking decent now. Hope it stays.

We will finish March with our 1st above normal temperature month since way back in September. Every fall and winter month except September ended with below normal temperatures. Our seesaw temperatures typical of spring will continue over the next several days. We have a well above normal day today before we turn much chiller tomorrow. We warm again by Friday through the weekend before turning much cooler again to start the new work week. Rain chances to really ramp up tomorrow into Wednesday night.

We will finish March with our 1st above normal temperature month since way back in September. Every fall and winter month except September ended with below normal temperatures. Our seesaw temperatures typical of spring will continue over the next several days. We have a well above normal day today before we turn much chiller tomorrow. We warm again by Friday through the weekend before turning much cooler again to start the new work week. Rain chances to really ramp up tomorrow into Wednesday night.

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino.

Might have an interesting aftn and evening pike north today with tstms.

29 years ago, pants slowly falling.

Loved his insight. RIP.

Looks like PF and NNE might see some flooding today; looks like a lot of rain coming out of W NY

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area. 920 FXUS61 KCTP 310824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Minimal changes since the last discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. 2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM with nothing more than light rain. The second convective cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream. However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface- based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe. 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest probabilities of thunder in the NW. As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State). The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of Interstate 80. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM) even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some thunderstorms in the area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

That is a *lot* of LTG in last 2 hr (24k+) ending 334am EDT for this time of year to our WNW. CoastalWx may have to pull out his laptop for a LTG PT event for renegade +CG! LOL. At the very least, he should prepare for wicked loud thunder booms under the inversion! Steep mid-level lapse rates all day should give us a couple of rounds TRW+ today. 06z HRRR shows an rather impressive mini-bow echo in ern NY early this evening moving E at nearly 60 mph. Supercell composite not bad in wrn MA/nrn CT/srn VT. ISOLTD "Scott spinner?" I would not be surprised if SPC extends the MRGL into western New England at 13z.

heavy downpours in the city..

Same here by Oak Brook. This was about 20 mins later also. Best hail so far this year. Light show was top notch. Been a while a storm like this hit in March imby. Definitely one of the best ones In awhile. Not sure another one will hit like this with the hail but if anything tops this coming up this summer it would have to be a totg or top tier derecho etc

For getting back into it with April we can extend it to the 3rd of April 6z but going forward lets try to stick to the 1st of the month at 6z. There will be times where it won't be perfect. I think we will try to add penalties as we go along for late forecasts.

Got up to 71 here

What should be the due date for this? The 2nd of every month?

Sandy, whatever you chose to call it at at landfall, made landfall over southern NJ. That's more the Mid-Atlantic than NEUS. I was confined things to a hurricane center crossing the New England coast or Long Island. We've had lots of side swipes from hurricanes in the NEUS, but for a direct landfall, sensible wx impacts are typically much greater, esp. for wind and power outages.

This is like after 20 minutes too fwiw