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Throw that pc out. We have a MECS+ to track

So far today GFS somewhat on an island compared to GGEM, Ukmet and Euro plus Icon if we’re counting it. Wanting to hold the Baja energy back more so than other guidance. We’ll see how Euro looks momentarily but would need some trends for the GFS to happen. Plenty of time to do so obv. The crazy part is the Euro used to do horribly with southwest energy getting properly ejected and now the GFS seems to be having some issues. GFS Ensembles also would mirror the op in some senses from initial conditions so not sure we can truly weigh it. Time will tell friends..

The 12z ECM-AI clearly has more wave interference than 6z. Slower ULL ejection and worse phasing. It's not as favorable a solution as last run, which was very good.

This is by far my favorite storm given the setup and last-minute forecast.

yucky day so far

Just showing you what it says so you can use it to compare to whatever you want....but i'll do commentary also...just trying to get it to yall fast

Yes, unfortunately the warm nose is a demon we often fight against, especially the southern valley. Yes, models account for it, but the warm nose on some models is extreme around 800mb to 850mb. There's no way for rates to cool that much of a warm nose.

Euro looks even colder. Looks amazing so far.

6z vs 12z below

Looking back over the nooners (so far), GFS is a southern outlier because its a strung out mess. CMC/ICON much more consolidated with nice qpf distributio and while slower in progression are much cleaner in evolution. Does that mean they are right....dunno, but that's my take.

Precip panels should be about to accelerate in a sec. I'm on a fucking windows machine and not my mac, so I won't be able to post screenshots fast enough...unless I just do like a 1950's boomer on facebook and just take a pic of the monitor and post it here.

With no context is that good? What’s the differences?

From another Met The good news is the GEFS mean phases the shortwave over the Midwest - very possible we just had a bad GFS run that will correct in 6 hours

Ralph says held the line, Paul says crept south? Who to believe

At H5 I think it was a step back. It phases in some northern stream energy but then leaves it all behind. 6z phased it all together. Good to see even in that scenario we get a great storm. But 6z was definitely better aloft.

Yup. Nothing major. Best snowstorm for many in a decade and it's warning level for everyone with no precip issues.

My youngest - studying for their Masters in Galway, Ireland - had a really nice light show from this last night.

It’s waffling quite a lot at H5 the past few runs. Results are similar to an extent but I definitely like 06z H5 for a bigger event.

Lol, what a coincidence. Hopefully we get a good storm where limbs would fall and we would hear more wood choppers. No doubt, feet. Head first would be way too easy/quick...

Think this will be a little south of last run

Everything is dependent on the height field orientation and evolution. The cold air is in place to the north. There is ample moisture to the south. If the isoheight lines are oriented mostly west to east (zonal) on Sat & Sun from North Texas to North Carolina (e.g., GFS), then this is likely a southeast and mid-Atl snowstorm. If the isoheight lines evolve with more of a north-facing component (meridional), the moisture will track further north. The more meridional the height field, the more QPF we will likely get up in our region. The placement of surface features (highs, lows, precip. field) are a reflection of the mid-and upper-level height field. To get a favorable height field we need the ULL to eject east and a favorably timed northern stream shortwave to partially or fully phase.

Updated with the Euro coming now

EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.

@John1122do you believe the warm nose with such a strong HP NW of us? And do models account for dynamic cooling through the column?