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Saw it coming

Thaws are normal as you know so on one hand I'd rather have this now than peak climo in a few weeks. But that also means we have to produce during that time. I'm still cautiously optimistic, but keeping up with climo once you're behind (which a lot of people are) is an uphill battle. Especially this decade. I do like seeing continued activity on the models. Tbh, I've been more checked out here in CT lol.

Better yet at 174

Some BIG parking lot mounds my area. They will be around for a while. Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.

Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.

Its a few torchy days up here above but looks like after Tuesday next week we start going the other way a bit back to normal.

The GFS and ECM ensembles continue to be strongly unsupportive of a snowstorm not week. It's a little surprising considering the forecasted high amplitude longwave trof in a favorable position. Right now there is way too much modeled vorticity in the Lakes region with one shortwave after another dropping through Michigan or southern Ontario keeping low surface pressure over the Great Lakes. The ECM is particularly hostile to a coastal snowstorm. The GFS at least looks marginally workable. It's yet another reminder how the specific evolution of the 500mb height field is critical for snowstorms and the long range 500mb anomaly charts are poor predictors for snow.

WSBA also had Operation Snowflake! And yes, I would wait anxiously when the new update would come on and the guy would say "we have a long list of schools that were previously delayed that have now decided to close." I used to get mad, Octorara was always the first to close followed by Pequea Valley. Of course, as an adult, it's easy to understand why they were closed. Fortunately, Penn Manor was "rural enough" that we closed more often than not. I got really fired up when Hempfield closed and Penn Manor didn't. Stupid Hempfield. Yeah @Mount Joy Snowman I'm looking at you right now.

Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.

It’s all good..I’m actually looking forward to it..feels nice for a change.

Patchy snow in the yard now..ready for a salt cleanse and reset. Looking forward to the parakeets for a couple days/nights

It’s a little more than that bro…but whatever. Long way to go bro being it’s 1/8…and that’s keeping it real too.

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?

No need for the wrist wringing over a few degrees? It’s going AN, time to accept.

Just keeping it real

We got spoiled by so many big daddy storms over the past 15-20 years that a lot of younger snow freaks think it's much more common than what it really is. Having said that, you're right. It seems like forever since a true Miller A came lumbering up out of the Gulf and headed for the benchmark. I think we're due for that...

The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @PhiEaglesfan712

Down here in Lanco, I105 was THE source for "OPERATION SNOWFLAKE". My brother and I would SIT on our stereo/record player (yes they were THAT big back in our time) and look out the window watching flakes fall and waiting for the "we have updates" between classic country songs. They did it every 15 min. We also had our little NOAA radio also going in background giving storm updates. Our channel was at 162.55 Megahertz.

1/7-1/14 hasn't looked good since the New Year when models lost the blocking. Let's get past this stretch and see if better threats start emerging after 1/15. Not holding my breath, but what's happening now is not suprising.

I’m not mad at all lol. I’ve had a decent go so far. I’m not upset at the thaw. Chances coming afterwards. I don’t expect wall to wall. Never have. You’re just inconsolable bro. Nothing anybody can do about your situation. Sad.

miss south

Enjoy up there. Looks decent in your hood to Winni.

muthafukkers! KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/08/2026 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15 CLIMO X/N 42| 16 39| 28 44| 29 37| 21 36| 17 38| 22 38| 21 31 10 29 TMP 30| 19 37| 29 34| 30 31| 23 28| 20 31| 24 33| 22 24 DPT 21| 19 35| 23 22| 26 28| 19 18| 15 23| 21 28| 16 13 CLD PC| PC OV| OV PC| OV OV| OV PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV WND 6| 3 7| 12 5| 10 8| 9 14| 7 7| 5 9| 10 10 P12 3| 0 45| 46 38| 85 63| 59 10| 15 20| 29 34| 31 33999999 P24 | 45| 58| 100| 67| 24| 43| 47 999 Q12 0| 0 1| 1 1| 3 1| 1 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 1| 1| 4| 2| 0| | T12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 1 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0 T24 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 PZP 10| 21 15| 0 5| 42 33| 9 7| 9 11| 15 10| 9 9 PSN 60| 26 6| 5 32| 23 25| 65 87| 82 53| 50 35| 38 65 PRS 29| 0 0| 7 4| 24 26| 18 6| 6 21| 14 23| 21 12 TYP S| S R| R R| Z Z| S S| S S| S S| S S SNW | 0| 0| 6| 1| 0| |

It’s mild aside for a day. A lot of very mild nights and mild days. Maybe Thursday is a tad AN and finally cooling off later Friday and the following weekend. I don’t know why this is hard to accept. Nobody said a week of 60.

No need to stop. Its all we have to talk about winter wise right now. Maybe by this weekend if somethin pops, you can save the stories for another boring stretch.