All Activity

For all the talk of wind measurements with landfalls, I agree the measurements we got from Isaias were impressive and suggest it probably was in fact a low-end cat 2 around the time of landfall. Given how quickly it was weakening at that point it wouldn’t surprise me if it did weaken slightly more than the operationally estimated 90kt at landfall, but the eyewall was impacting the coast when it was at that intensity. I agree with some points raised here - the maximum sustained winds are not something people should expect to see at their location on land, and properly communicating that (while still maintaining the proper level of urgency) is important. Even if you’re not seeing the max sustained winds on land, hazards such as wind damage and surge are very much proportional to those max sustained winds. You won’t see cat 5 sustained winds away from the coast in a cat 5 eyewall, but it would still be destructive and no one would be quibbling over it. Would also like to mention that when storms are sampled by recon, there is a wide array of instrumentation measuring winds at/near the surface and aloft, with well-researched and established reduction factors to equate low-level winds to the surface winds in these storms. The NHC is not just making up the max sustained winds. I do agree with the sentiment that NHC can be slow to operationally reduce the winds in storms that are weakening as landfall approaches, but understand why they’re cautious with that.

Over an inch so far.

Nam with it's usual bonkers run.

What if…and hear me out on this…the highest sustained winds were over water at the time of landfall?

certainly not around here. 2015 is like hold my beer

100% Agreed for sure.

Side note but I was up at Grayson Highlands yesterday for the leaves and hoping for a sunset (too cloudy) but we did see some crazy solar optics all day long. First time for me ever seeing a couple of these. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Heat is a Thanksgiving treat.

Oh 100%. It is what it is. We are lucky and can afford it, it’s just more than I’d like.

Min 37.8° Should be a close call tonight. I don’t want to bring plants in, but MOS is 33/34 at CON and it’s a race to see how much we radiate before the increasing clouds offset it.

Records: Highs: EWR: 92(1949) NYC: 91 (1939) LGA: 89 (1949) JFK: 86 (1997) Lows: EWR: 35 (1979) NYC: 35 (1888) LGA: 36 (1979) JFK: 35 (1979) Historical: 1780: The Hurricane Season of 1780 was one of the worst in recorded history. The storm which destroyed the Windward Islands from this date through the 12th is the deadliest ever in recorded Atlantic history. It became known simply as the "Great Hurricane of 1780." It is believed that 22,000 people perished in the week long rampage. 9,000 died on the island of Martinique, 5,000 in Eustatius and 4,000 in Barbados. Thousands more died at sea. It was just one of three deadly hurricanes that month. The first week of the month saw a hurricane strike Jamaica, killing 1,000 people. The eastern Gulf of Mexico was hit later that month, and 2,000 were killed. The October storms hampered much of the British and Spanish Navies and aided the colonies in the American Revolution. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804 - A famous snow hurricane occurred. The unusual coastal storm caused northerly gales from Maine to New Jersey. Heavy snow fell across New England, with three feet reported at the crest of the Green Mountains. A foot of snow was reported in the Berkshires of southern New England, at Goshen CT. (David Ludlum) 1846: The Great Hurricane of 1846 struck Cuba. The pressure over the island dropped to 916 millibars or 27.06 inches of mercury. 92 vessels in the Havana Harbor was sunk, wrecked, dismasted or severely damaged. The storm went on to wreak great havoc at Key West, FL. Fort Taylor, FL was reportedly reduced to ruins. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1894: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in the Florida panhandle then moved up the east coast over the coastal land regions, passing only about 20 miles southeast of Atlantic City, NJ, where it weakened to a tropical storm. Atlantic City and New York City measured wind gusts to 60 mph. Although a tropical storm as it entered Rhode Island, Block Island measured a wind gust to 100 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1925: Weekend football games were played in deep snow across New England as up to two feet fell in northern Vermont and New Hampshire. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1928 - The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 90 degrees, their latest such reading of record. (The Weather Channel) 1949 A rapidly deepening area of low pressure produced gale to hurricane force winds across much of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and the Dakotas. Sustained 1-minute winds reached 85 mph at Rochester, MN and 79 mph at La Crosse, WI during the early afternoon. Winds gusts were as high as 100 mph. This produced extensive damage to buildings and power lines. In addition, many corn crops were flattened. Bizzare storm brings Hurricane force winds across Minnesota. This was possibly the strongest non-thunderstorm winds seen in Minnesota. Top winds were clocked at 100 mph at Rochester, with a gust of 89 mph at the Twin Cities International Airport. 4 deaths and 81 injuries were reported. Numerous store windows were broken, and large chimneys toppled. The top 10 floors of the Foshay building were evacuated with the tenants feeling seasick from the swaying building. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1954: Heavy rains continued for a second day across parts of northern Illinois. Up to 5 inches of rain created havoc as traffic was cut off by flooded underpasses and communication and power were seriously affected. Many people had to be evacuated. A small tornado was also reported. Flood damage from the two day event was estimated at $25 million dollars in the Chicago area and at least $10 million dollars in Chicago. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1962: Severe thunderstorms brought very destructive hail to Bryan County, in southeast Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of golf balls broke more than half the windows of the businesses in downtown Durant, shattered many car windshields, broke out 1,400 panes of glass in seven greenhouses, and broke electrical insulators, resulting in widespread power outages. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: Chicago, Illinois from the 9th to the 11th: A 48-hour deluge of 6.72 inches (170.7 mm) floods the Chicago River, causing ten million dollars damage in the Chicago area. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1973 - Fifteen to 20 inch rains deluged north central Oklahoma in thirteen hours producing record flooding. Enid was drenched with 15.68 inches of rain from the nearly stationary thunderstorms, which established a state 24 hour rainfall record. Dover OK reported 125 of 150 homes damaged by flooding. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1979 - A storm blanketed Worcester, MA, with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1979: This was the earliest snow ever recorded in Richmond, Virginia. KRIC had but a trace of snow on this date. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This is also the earliest snow ever recorded at the Annandale-Barcroft Hills station 0.5 inches. KDCA had 0.3 inches on this date and the greatest snowfall in October was 2.2 inches on October 30, 1925. (Ref. Annandale-Barcroft Hills records) (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)Dale Enterprise west of Harrisonburg had 8.0 the heaviest early snow in more than 143 years records there back to 1868 (The Weather Channel) 1982: Beginning on the 8th through this date, record amounts of snow piled up in the northern Black Hills in South Dakota. Not only was the storm a record breaker because it came so early in the season, it was a record snowfall producer for anytime of year. Amounts of 3 to 6 feet were common across the northern hills. On the 9th, 32 inches of snow buried the town of Lead. The 32 inches that day is the most on record for a 24 hour period in South Dakota. Lead's three day storm total of 55.3 inches is the largest single storm total on record in South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Eleven cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Colorado Springs CO with a reading of 23 degrees, and Havre MT with a low of 11 degrees above zero. Light snow was reported as far south as Kansas. Omaha NE reported their third earliest snow of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the nation for Columbus Day. The afternoon high of 77 degrees at Kalispell MT was the warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn season. Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 56 mph at Lorain OH. Snowflakes were observed at Milwaukee WI around Noon, but quickly changed to rain as temperature readings were in the lower 60s. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains along the northeast coast of Florida. Augustine was deluged with 16.08 inches of rain. The heavy rain caused extensive flooding of homes and businesses, and left some roads under three feet of water. Ten cities from South Carolina to New England reported record low temperatures for the date, including Concord NH with a reading of 23 degrees. Temperatures dipped into the 30s in the Carolinas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2000: In Charlotte, NC, the low Oct. 10, 2000 was 30 degrees. This set a record for the earliest date that the temperature has dropped below freezing in Charlotte. St. Joseph, Missouri set a new record low 4 mornings in a row. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 2009: Nome, Alaska: Nome experiences its first ever October (Autumn) thunderstorm with five lightning strikes between 8 and 9 PM ADT.(Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA) 2011: Eight straight days of 100 percent sunshine in Chicago, IL is simply extraordinary - the longest previous streak in October was 7 days back in 1934. It was the longest streak for any month, except the one-time 10-day record established July 21-30, 1916 when a record 95 percent sunshine was received for that month. (Ref. WGN Chicago Weather Clear -- Very Long Period of Clear Weather)

62 / 50 partly cloudy. Upper 60s low 70s clouds from the remnants of Issias. 1-2 inches of rain perhaps 3+ in spots mainly Sunday into the overnight and monday. Warm Mon - Wed with Wed perhaps next and perhaps till next year shot at 80 for some of the warmer locations Beyond there 10/15 to 10/21 or so moderating to or below normal overall still a bit of a mix forecast for this period in the D7+.

0.07” this morning. Not expecting much from the system, will be very happy if we get 1”

Blows. Fine day today however.

.65 already, so far.

Looking like our first frost/freeze potential late next weekend.

Hey, it is what it is. That’s why we work. I don’t put a price on comfort. If it’s cold, the heat goes on. If it’s hot, the AC goes on. I’m not going to suffer to save a few dollars. But that’s just me.

Yes we had some extremely cold winters in the 1980s I'd argue the real warmth started AFTER December 1989. Something radically changed between December 1989 and January 1990 and it had NOTHING to do with ENSO! as matter of fact there were heat records set in the historic 1991 and 1993 year that still haven't been matched. Even our heatwaves have been shorter since then. Why does everyone blame everything on ENSO? Think and look deeper. This isn't really true Chris. The late 1800s winters were radically different from the 1970s winters. Look at NYC and Newark datasets. Also the real warmth began in the 1990s, there are records from 1991 and 1993 that still haven't been matched. Especially the length of our heatwaves. 1983 had such a hot wall to wall summer an el nino lingering into next summer won't prevent that from happening again. No neither was favorable but Decembet 1992 completely outclassed this one, it was much more historic. You need an offshore benchmark track for snow. UGH DO NOT TALK ABOUT THOSE DISGUSTING SWING AND MOSTLY MISS HITTERS THAT PLAGUE BASEBALL. WE TALK ABOUT THEM IN THE SPORTS FORUMS ABOUT HOW MEDIOCRE THEY ARE AND HOW THEY MAKE AVERAGE PITCHING SEEM GREAT AND HOW THEY ALWAYS CHOKE IN THE POST SEASON AS HAS BEEN PROVEN TIME AND AGAIN. GIVE ME DEREK JETER, TONY GWYNN, PAUL MOLITOR OVER ANY OF THEM. I WOULD LIKE A NEW RULE IN BASEBALL WHERE A HITTER GETS KICKED OUT OF THE GAME AFTER THEIR SECOND STRIKE OUT. I'M JUST GLAD THE HALL OF FAME REJECTS THEM COMPLETELY. THE THREE BORING OUTCOME PLAYERS DONT BELONG IN THE SPORT LET ALONE THE HALL OF FAME, PUT THEM IN THE HALL OF SHAME. Those kinds of lazy unathletic low IQ players need to be kicked out of baseball. There is a direct correlation between IQ and batting average. Tony Gwynn was a genius. No it was a coastal storm that stalled offshore and did a loop there was no primary, I dont believe the track shown on that map is correct. And the most recent storm would be snow changing to rain you need a track to be near Cape Cod to be all snow not the Jersey shore. Yes and NW NJ had 10 to 20 inches of snow but even aside from snowfall it was the greatest noreaster of our lifetines far greater than the March 1993 so called superstorm. It actually stayed a bit offshore of the delmarva and did an offshore loop, NW NJ got 10 to 20 inches including 14 inches at Sparta. I dont remember the January 1992 noreaster at all there were so many big noreasters that decade was that 1991-92 season the one in which we had an 9 inch 36 hour surprise snowstorm that stalled near the Hamptons? Yes this was the greatest noreaster of our lifetimes. 14 inches in Sparta NJ that might have been all snow even at the coast had it happened in February which is exactly what our local forecasters said because the temperatures fell into the 30s on the first day of the storm and it was close to being snow even as is. I remember that second stall near Cape Cod that gave us 1 to 2 inches of snow on the third day of the storm. That was a much more historic storm than this one was what were the top wind speeds and top storm surge with that one Chris? That one would have been all snow even at the coast had it happened in February, it was in the 30s as it was with 14 inches of snow in Sparta NJ. The most recent storm with that awful track had NO chance of being all snow at the coast even in February you need a Benchmark track near Cape Cod for that to happen. It actually stalled a bit offshore of the Delmarva and then stalled again near Cape Cod which is why it snowed on Long Island on the the third day of the storm. It would have been all snow even at the coast in February. Yes and even as is it was very close to being all snow at the coast. 14 inches in Sparta NJ. Sparta NJ had 14 inches of snow in February it would have been all snow even at the coast. What did January 1992 do I dont remember that one at all, only the surprise 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm we had in February that year. If it happened in February the historic December 1992 storm would have been all snow even at the coast. Yes you need a Benchmark track the most recent storm would not have been snow at the coast no matter when it happened .

Simple (Hurricane) Simon says: As I was going to St. Ives, I met a man with seven wives. Every wife had seven sacks, every sack had seven cats, every cat had seven kittens. Kittens, cats, sacks, and wives. How many were going to St. Ives? My phone number is 555 and the answer. Call me in 30 seconds or die. Hurricane Simon at 150mph winds at public advisory 12a on October 10th.

I’m so screwed this winter. Heat is needed almost every morning at this point even with a 62-63 set point.

They'll be around here, too, but we're well past peak. Some late-turning maples will still be colorful and the aspens are peaking. Clear blue this morning, low was mid-upper 30s.

October 10 1977: A few locations receive early accumulating snow, including Minneapolis with 2.5 inches, Gaylord with 2 inches, and Jordan with 2 inches. 1970: Early snowfall is recorded in west central Minnesota. Snow totals range from a trace to 4.2 inches in Benson. Other areas include Montevideo with 4 inches, Canby with 3.2 inches, Morris with 2.6 inches, and Willmar with 2.5 inches. New London, New Ulm, and Buffalo all recorded 2 inches of snowfall. 1949: An incredibly strong low pressure system brings hurricane force winds across Minnesota. This was possibly the strongest non-thunderstorm wind event seen in Minnesota. Top winds are clocked at 100 mph at Rochester, with a gust of 89 mph at the Twin Cities International Airport. 4 deaths and 81 injuries are reported. Numerous store windows are broken, and large chimneys toppled. The top 10 floors of the Foshay building are evacuated with the tenants feeling seasick from the swaying building. 1928: Record high temperatures are set across central Minnesota with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For Saturday, October 10, 2026 1804 - A famous snow hurricane occurred. The unusual coastal storm caused northerly gales from Maine to New Jersey. Heavy snow fell across New England, with three feet reported at the crest of the Green Mountains. A foot of snow was reported in the Berkshires of southern New England, at Goshen CT. (David Ludlum) 1928 - The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 90 degrees, their latest such reading of record. (The Weather Channel) 1973 - Fifteen to 20 inch rains deluged north central Oklahoma in thirteen hours producing record flooding. Enid was drenched with 15.68 inches of rain from the nearly stationary thunderstorms, which established a state 24 hour rainfall record. Dover OK reported 125 of 150 homes damaged by flooding. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1979 - A storm blanketed Worcester, MA, with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eleven cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Colorado Springs CO with a reading of 23 degrees, and Havre MT with a low of 11 degrees above zero. Light snow was reported as far south as Kansas. Omaha NE reported their third earliest snow of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the nation for Columbus Day. The afternoon high of 77 degrees at Kalispell MT was the warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn season. Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 56 mph at Lorain OH. Snowflakes were observed at Milwaukee WI around Noon, but quickly changed to rain as temperature readings were in the lower 60s. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains along the northeast coast of Florida. Augustine was deluged with 16.08 inches of rain. The heavy rain caused extensive flooding of homes and businesses, and left some roads under three feet of water. Ten cities from South Carolina to New England reported record low temperatures for the date, including Concord NH with a reading of 23 degrees. Temperatures dipped into the 30s in the Carolinas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 10 Sat National Chess Day 10 Sat World Homeless Day 10 Sat World Hospice and Palliative Care Day 10 Sat World Day Against the Death Penalty 10 Sat Inclusion Day 10 Sat International Stage Management Day 10 Sat Local Government Day 10 Sat Maroons Day 10 Sat National Cake Decorating Day 10 Sat National Handbag Day 10 Sat National Hug a Kevin Day 10 Sat MISTR's National PrEP Day 10 Sat World Animal Road Accident Awareness Day 10 Sat World Porridge Day 10 Sat World Plant-based Burger Day 10 Sat National Angel Food Cake Day 10 Sat World Mental Health Day

Well Liberty perhaps a ‘# of individual post responses’ statistic should be included. If energy, truly, can neither be created or destroyed….. you’ll be here indefinitely. As always …..

Low of 44 in Marysville. Beautiful Fall day is ahead before the beneficial rain tomorrow.