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No, the overall heat from the sun does not decrease when sunspots increase; the total solar energy output actually increases slightly during periods of high sunspot activity. This happens because sunspots, though cooler and darker, are surrounded by brighter, hotter areas called faculae (or plages). The increased brightness from the faculae outweighs the slight dimming from the sunspots themselves, resulting in a net increase in the sun's total energy output. From an inquiry of AI via Google of the following: Does overall heat from sun decrease when sunspots increase? ———— So it’s a net increase. Solar flux increases.

Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.

37 mph in Muttontown already & 31 mph in Syosset.

Like what I’m seeing on the models for tomorrow/Thursday am, though SLK may not have enough elevation.

We're heading up to your neck of the woods tomorrow for a few days to stay at the Omni. Looks like we'll get our first taste of some snow! And wind...lots of wind. The red squirrels were out in force during the spring and early summer here. Bold and trying to get into everything!

Normally I would say it's not permanent because weather patterns change quite often. But with the background state of the climate, I think climate change has made the WestPac so warm (which enhances the PacJet and causes west coast storminess and only transient troughs in the east at best), that there's no turning back. I think more of us will come along to this idea towards the end of the decade if we continue to see lack of snow in the area. In the past, decades with low snowfall amounts could be attributed to periods of drier weather or transient year-to-year weather pattern changes. But since late 2010s, we've been in a generally low amount of snowfall (save for a few winters) because it's just too warm to snow.

Had a few gusts in the lower to mid-30s already

NW flow chances just keep looking better next week. Nice little piece of energy keeps digging into the base of that trough on the models.

The jury is out on whether or not CC is bringing down/will bring down average lifespans. Why? -If we assume CC significantly increases food supply via larger crops, that markedly reduces deaths related to malnutrition. That’s huge! -Cold has historically been a bigger killer than heat although that eventually might even out way down the road. -Sea level rises are gradual. Thus a lot of the death potential from it can easily be mitigated by moving to higher ground. -When considering all of the above, CC may actually (continue to) result in increased average life spans with increased deaths from heat/flooding/more intense hurricanes notwithstanding.

yessir!

Would think at minimum an advisory for the entire CWA

HWW hoisted!! Finally some weather excitement, Who will gust to 80?!

Saw this guy yesterday on my deck. Didn’t seem very fat but on so cute

Is this just a wind threat or will there be rain associated with it?

I would not be shocked to see convective blossom towards the Cape tomorrow night

That’s interesting, Chris! Regardless, this NYC snowfall rule before/after an SSW is tangential to the significant correlation of major SSW to several weeks of cold following a lag period in the E US as a whole.

Thread started for tomorrow night... might need pinning? Thank you very much. OBS for the wind event will go right into this thread...I'll probably adjust it for OBS in the headline at 6PM tomorrow.

Please follow whatever NWS OKX PHI ALY and BOX issues on the coming Wednesday night wind and tides. From our subforum standpoint have tagged wind damage for Wednesday night's brief but significant wind event associated with a 55-65KT 850 MB Cold Air Advection jet overhead. No guarantees, so the worst case 12z/4 HRRR and NAM suite max wind gusts should be 5 MPH too high but nevertheless, we should see more power outages than this morning (attached), and I expect at least a few night time -Thursday morning detours travel delays due to downed tree branches especially ridges and through NYS-CT. This will impact air travel for arrival departures Wednesday evening possibly into Thursday morning. Lapse rates look unstable for a few hours Wednesday evening up to at least 900MB, with strong subsidence drying in the wake of the Wednesday evening cold frontal passage adding to momentum transfer. A 12 hour 500MB HFC of over 150M amplifies in its east-southeast trek across NYS into New England Wednesday evening, briefly increasing the nw 850MB jet behind it to 65 kt or a bit higher. PA/NJ look to be on the southern fringe of the greatest impact which should be NYS and New England. It's an early call so no guarantees but I think its worth an eventual wind Watch or Advisory. I expect at least half the airports in the NYC metro area to hit at least 40 kt, possibly reaching 50 KT? Wind gust potential diminishes rapidly in our NYC subforum area by dawn Thursday. BLOWOUT Tide Thursday morning?: There is a chance that parts of the east facing coasts at just after midnight Thursday morning's LOW tide cycle will see a blow out tide less than -1.6' MLLW because of this brief period of wnw wind. Added HRRR max gusts at 10P/5 and 1A/6, the 12z/4 FOUS with my own personal trigger of 27KT BL wind as a threshold of wind event concerns, the 844AM today power outages with the relatively light sub 40KT gusts. Then I added the 3K NAM sampler max wind gusts, the more conservative Blend Of Models wind gust forecast and the the EPS marginal advisory wind gust modeled prediction. 1058A/4

This is one of the more intriguing modeled wind setups we've had in a while. This is 12z NAM bufkit for BDL and for 2 AM. Like Scott said above, also have to watch for gusty showers/thunderstorms which could bring some locally damaging wind gusts but we should crank on the WNW flow. Strong pressure gradient and strong mixing overnight. Maybe some spots end up with just a bit of a near sfc inversion to keep the strongest gusts more to tree top level but there will be some 60+ mph gusts tomorrow night I'd think

Things have definitely warmed after the 2016 super Nina and stayed in a permanent warmer base state due to the persistently torched pacific basin. Whether that is permanent is the question.

Interesting wind potential, but much higher well NE of the area.

Yeah this has my eye. Also, may need to watch some convective shwrs/iso tstm again.

12z guidance coming in more impressive and now has a narrow squall line with 60 mph gust potential along and just behind Wednesday evening.

The charts that show life expectancy and the warming temp charts you can nearly lay on top of one another and you wouldn't know the difference.

Fascinating listen, not sure what to believe anymore.