All Activity

In the fanny?

Low of 61 with .08" of additional rainfall, for an event total of .61". Feel like I haven't mowed in ages, going to have to do that tomorrow before our beautiful weekend hits. Onward.

Some folks received beneficial rains of up to 0.76" at West Bradford....while others like Warwick Township saw only 0.06" of rain. Here in East Nantmeal we are running at about 50% of our normal September rainfall. Year to date we are at 97% normal rainfall. Unfortunately, I don't see any chances of rain over the week. We will turn warmer both today and tomorrow with temperatures several degrees above normal for afternoon highs. We Turn cooler again for the weekend with highs by Sunday close to 70 degrees.

Some folks received beneficial rains of up to 0.76" at West Bradford....while others like Warwick Township saw only 0.06" of rain. Here in East Nantmeal we are running at about 50% of our normal September rainfall. Year to date we are at 97% normal rainfall. Unfortunately, I don't see any chances of rain over the week. We will turn warmer both today and tomorrow with temperatures several degrees above normal for afternoon highs. We Turn cooler again for the weekend with highs by Sunday close to 70 degrees.

.25" yesterday, I'll take it.

For all practical purposes, it’s already weak La Niña: The RONI equivalent is likely already well down into weak Niña range (subtract at least ~0.25C from the raw 3.4 SST anomaly based on the slowly reducing but still persistent RONI minus ONI) Below are some straight 3.4 anomalies (caution that CDAS has typically been too cold but sometimes CRW is slightly too warm): based on these four, alone, I’d think the raw anomaly is likely ~-0.4 to -0.5 meaning ~-0.7 for RONI equivalent: Buoys:

Surprised the orange zone didn’t expand much.

The red dong of d3 expands

0.26" fell late yesterday afternoon in a 30 minute shower, pushing this year into third (behind 1985's 0.06" and 2019's 0.27") with 0.37" now for the month. I doubt it stays there with 12 more reporting days, but we shall see. Amazing what a bit of rain does, grass is greener this am and the trees that have turned (about 25% - 33% are in color) look awesome.

What in tarnation is going on up here

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

I fully expect his annual windshield frost post.

ENSO isn't truly neutral ... it's more like quasi negative, fw little iw ... biased < 3.4. The problem is the surrounding atmosphere is so expanded beyond, there's no geophysical triggers to force a pattern evolution. It's like a chick moving around inside an eggshell - the outside world doesn't know that is happening. That won't ( likely...) characterize the winter ahead, of course. But for the time being, the intraseasonal variance may see wondering into a quasi positive or negative ( probably favoring the latter this time...), and it won't mean a darn thing to the hemisphere. Not until the seasonal compression of the hemisphere quickens the geopotential height medium --> increasing basal winds, and that's when the planetary wave tendencies/feedbacks are forced/exposed. In fact, this may transitively then feedback and force a more coherent tendency with the ENSO, one way or the other ... Anyway, that's probably ... I dunno, later October+ but more so by Thanks Giggedy. And that may not really turn out to be the winter hemisphere. Some > 50% of the time, yes, there is some vestigial usefulness in identifying - usually through - the nonlinear observations of "lurking" tendencies during those early seasonal flavors... It's your chance to be artful.. The other aspect - as I wonder into a seasonal outlook tendency I did not mean to ... - is that it's been papered by other sources that jet meanders are becoming more common, particularly during the shoulder seasons. It's why I suspect that we may observe some blocking tendencies in the AO(WPO/EPO/NAO) between the late Oct - Xmas time.. But I grow increasingly confident with each passing year that the winter hemisphere might be forever changed - it seems regardless of all leading indicator methods, we seem to wend our way into a version of: This may obliterate, however ...as the machinery of deep winter takes over with its (probable) repeat performance of > normal gradient everywhere and basal flow velocities hurried along, that disturbs resonance feedbacks and patterns have difficulties establishing... That means we may have problem locking in either cold or warm, in lieu rapid variance ( relatively...). 10 day winter pops followed by 53 F streaks kind of thing. That's also sloppy description of the last several winters, frankly, which seem to have become a leitmotif.

0.00” Min 48.7°

I've had frost at 37° plenty of times. You can, too. Believe!

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons. Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.1 2.6 8.2 5.9 2.7 1.0 20.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 2.5 3.0 2.3 3.2 T 11.0 1980-1981 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.7 T 6.9 0.0 16.5 1981-1982 0.0 T 3.1 12.5 0.8 0.3 8.2 24.9 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.0 24.7 0.1 1.5 32.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.2 9.9 T 10.9 T 22.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 12.4 9.0 0.4 T 27.3 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.8 3.0 13.5 T T 19.3 1986-1987 0.0 0.4 1.0 11.8 7.9 2.0 0.0 23.1 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.7 7.3 1.0 T 14.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 12.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.4 10.4 T 0.0 12.8 2022-2023 0.0 T T T 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.1 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 17.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.9 26.4 T T 34.5 2019-2020 0.0 T 1.9 1.9 T T T 3.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.8 T 0.7 3.1 6.1 0.0 14.7

Is there a way to actually do that? I've always just done it the hard way, but ultimately gave up when the thread's hundos pages deep...

CoC n Stein.

1.25” here and about 2.40” for September. Glad some of the drier areas got the goods.

Back to Summer until at least early October. Yuck.

1.23" here in the lowlands. That was the classic "lowland bullseye" when everyone nw freaks out while I laugh because we all know they'll jackpot anyways lol. I'm really happy to see the dryer areas max potential. It definitely wasn't needed here. My hiking trails have been muddy since the end of June.

That 18-wheeler hit three potholes by my count. Finished with .15" yesterday bringing my monthly total to 1.90". 61F

2.55 inches for total event here in Purcellville.

Nice consensus emerging-

.55 but just missed out on some heavier stuff. Should buy my overseeded lawn a couple of days