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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd In other words,the professionals who get paid for this don't have a clue either,let's just flip a coin then.

Not seeing any meaningful differences so far at the sfc. I'm at hour 63 btw

Virtually no differences from 6Z thru 51 hrs on GFS

Also, for the record, I'm really bummed seeing the amount of pro/TV/AMS mets plastering eye candy snow maps without beneficial context to the public. I'm not looking to purify my feeds per se, but if I see a local met or influencer page not communicating within due diligence, my tendency to unfollow/snooze. Weather is more enjoyable without the bias. Hype is fine once confidence is high enough to support it.

Ensemble prediction system of the ECMWF. The ensembles run with slightly adjusted initialized conditions. The ensemble spread can show uncertainty in the forecast.

50 Hail Marys

But some are complaining about that. It’s a head scratcher

I think more than you'd think, at this point...

Desperation has set in. 100 second time lapse aimed generally upwind of the Bays Mt band:

Yeah, just describing what's going on. I don't really even know what we need (other than a miracle) to do this tbh

Ha no office anymore. Been taking it easy but now poking around the job market.

Not even sure if that’s the issue anymore it’s what does the so called kicker do to that energy as it moves east.

Breezy and cold today with temperatures remaining below freezing this morning and then slowly falling through the 20's this afternoon. We will stay below freezing for much of the next week with the one exception being Saturday where we should moderate into the mid to upper 30's. There will also be a couple chances of some light snow both Saturday and Sunday. Our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week with high temperatures by Tuesday, remaining in the teens with nighttime lows in the single digits above zero.

Breezy and cold today with temperatures remaining below freezing this morning and then slowly falling through the 20's this afternoon. We will stay below freezing for much of the next week with the one exception being Saturday where we should moderate into the mid to upper 30's. There will also be a couple chances of some light snow both Saturday and Sunday. Our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week with high temperatures by Tuesday, remaining in the teens with nighttime lows in the single digits above zero.

you know it's a sad state of affairs when we are tracking an inch of snow

Backside of the forming trof out west is a bit more wester. But again, nothing to get excited about so far

So you’re saying there’s a chance you blow with speedo and flip flops…

I think in order to bring this far enough west, there would need to be a wholescale change with H5. Maybe more of a push with the western atlantic ridge, but without any Atlantic blocking, it's easy for this to slip offshore, especially when the trough is positively tilted

Hopefully we'll get something on the tail end of the cold snap.

To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip

Flatter is the main trend seen so far. Makes sense given the progressive flow and has been the overall theme of the past few years. More times than not flatter, drier, and disorganized wins lately.

So at 18 notice just an ass hair bit of ridging out ahead vs 6z. It's noticeable, but nothing huge so far

This is literally insane. Every year we say it’s going to end

Scooter breaking down after getting called in the office after losing it on a junior employee?