All Activity

Heh... that's probably PR. Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance. Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Then, all at once on that 5th day, inhibition was poorly assessed, goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. The PR in a situation like that is strategic. Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch). What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries. For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ... To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots. But I'm digressing

Thank you for the clarification! I've seen more AFDs reference "WPC AI guidance" and was getting concerned it was becoming just plug and chug computer nonsense in the Mid and long range.

This isn't true at all. All NWS gridded forecasts use the NBM which combines lots of available computer models. For Days 4-7, WPC can make some minimal edits and get some input from WFOs, but they mostly leave the NBM alone. For Days 0-3, the WFOs can be a bit more heavy-handed, but they are still encouraged to limit their editing.

no good deadheads

Heat Adv out for today. Low 90's possible. Breezy SW winds will probably mix some Lake air in, so not sure we will hit 90. Missed out on rain this morning. Stayed N n S.

Beyond day 3 is generated using the NBM, but WPC is allowed to make some minor edits (with input from the local offices). It is NOT AI-based.

Absolutely. Today actually feels like summer yore. At least how I remember it.

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.

LOT can smell it Thus far, the new activity near the Minnesota and Iowa border has remained largely cellular and disorganized. However, have noted evidence of a southward push of the overall complex (a recent 28kt wind gust at an AWOS station out of the north under one of the cores). Accordingly, current thinking is that there should still be a southward propagation to the new development into northern Iowa in the coming hours and perhaps as far south as central or even southern Iowa by mid-morning, much in line with prior thinking. Will also have to watch if there is any expansion of trailing thunderstorms across west- central Minnesota as it would also be poised to move southward along the instability axis into northern Iowa later this morning. With all of this in mind, still do see an off-ramp from a severe weather day in our local area in the form of a prohibitive "wall" of stable air in Iowa left over from early- day thunderstorms that blocks the surface-based instability axis from arcing northeastward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin later this afternoon. With all of that said, would be remiss to ignore the possibility that the early-day thunderstorms largely fall apart by daybreak and/or have a much more limited footprint than currently expected. Exploring the scenario where the instability axis does reach (at least part of) our area later today, the kinematic wind field would still be very favorable for severe weather and support supercells and bowing clusters with a threat for all hazards. There could very well be more than one round of storms with a mid-afternoon round tied to a subtle lead impulse embedded in the northwesterly flow on the eastern edge of the instability axis and another round later in the evening and overnight period tied to the dominant upper-level wave. It is worth noting the HRRR is stubbornly persistent in showing this scenario today.

July 20 1951: A tornado hits Minneapolis and Richfield, killing five people. 1909: 10.75 inches of rain falls in 24 hours at Beaulieu in Mahnomen County. This record would stand for over 50 years. Bagley receives an estimated 10 inches. For Monday, July 20, 2026 1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 20 Mon World Jump Day 20 Mon International Chess Day 20 Mon National Moon Day 20 Mon Moon Landing Anniversary 20 Mon Moon Day 20 Mon National Fortune Cookie Day 20 Mon National Lollipop Day 20 Mon National Ugly Truck Contest Day 20 Mon Space Exploration Day 20 Mon National Pennsylvania Day

Wow. That is crazy only being maybe 3-4 miles away

Not enough shear so if it isn't on top of you it won't make it.

51 here

it happened again the same evening. woo storms!

It almost looks like a TUTT with a sputtering TD underneath. TUTTs are not providing an anticyclonic geometric outflow when they are over top - opposite in fact. What's interesting about that is that TUTT's are often a part of TC evolution. But, they are near-by ... not directly overhead. The near-by model: The mechanism/relationship there is that their circulation proximity pulls an outflow channel which improves the mass-restoring inflow potential and the TCs gets a boost. It's like a pulsar and star and the pulsar siphoning material off the star, and it flows into an accretion disk. But in this case the TUTT is over top. No channel. I'm not sure that's what is happening here but the general CB exhaust motion doesn't inspire anticyclonic U/A has been established very well, and in fact, the deeper object motion is slowly cyclonic about a broader defined axis with that small surface feature ESE of LA. Also some NEly shear too

This will be a rare occasion that a dense smoke plume prevented 100°+ heat and higher departures.

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

46.6F this morning. Yeesh. bring me some 90s please.

Seems to be trending a bit north today with less of a time window over water. Probably only gets to minimal TS at this point. Satellite appears to be showing more northerly shear today as well

Nice condensed way to put that ... ...I've also been impressing upon this phenomenon myself since last October... 7 or so of the last 9 months have have been cooler relative to the planetary seemingly fixed hot spots, yet still warmer than normal relative to our own climate means. Relativity is baking people's perception, perhaps. We base our impressions on a combination of sensible experiences over the time... mixed up with "group theory"- haha. But, here's an example of May and June per NASA's GIS tool - granularity and so forth, notwithstanding. Clearly there is a preferential/bias to result cooler over eastern mid latitude N America, than it has ( again ... relative to climate) N-S-E-W and abroad. But combining sensible experience with headlines that rarely include our region when it comes to warmth ... it's a bit obfuscating/false impression making - maybe. Anyway, we're above normal, just not as much. There are a few other cooler nodes as one can clearly see ... I haven't been paying as close attention to those in all honesty - preoccupied by how warm enthusiasts are being tormented locally ( haha). I wouldn't be shocked however if these are "geological resonant feedback" regions. In other words, wholesale planetary factorization 'sort of' fixing those cool vs warm regions. Some of that's got to be true. I mean, the perennial N/A pattern ( PNAP ) has a flat ridge west, nadir-ing flow east, as the westerlies impinge on the western N/A cordillera ... forced up and over, and then Coriolis bends the flow into NVA... etc.. But, that does probably contribute to why our "heat domes" are too transient to be part of the cool kids. Something like that could be normal elsewhere.

57 here. What a great morning.

I just watched Jim Cantory say that it seems to be trending more towards a LA landfall. That's more in our wheelhouse for remnant moisture than Texas. That will just mean Frederick and Glen Burnie get flash flooding lol

Almost expect to wake up to one of those every day right now. Since it started we haven't missed a day yet. Hoping some day this week will not have an air quality alert!

56F low in Lancaster. .

53 here this morning.