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I've been complaining about lack of rain since spring. Unfortunately it's getting really bad in my parts. We are way under in precip for the year, and it looks to continue in the new year.

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more.

ORH has been slightly BN for snowfall in December but not by a lot. November was a goose egg though so seasonal is behind by a 2-3” more.

I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.

Said that a page back Mike…but ya, absolutely.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.

Wasn’t expecting this. I’m heading out to pick up my kiddo in Colrain and roads are coated up already.

eh the first week of January was always iffy...only a small part of the country(us) had BN temps....the rest was a blowtorch.

Many many mets have a warm bias

This is my problem they change a forecast 30 times before the day happens and say they are accurate.

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

Pretty massive jump. Interesting at least… said earlier about 4-5 of the ens members had it.

Wttte

Nice snow showers here. The glare ice in the driveway has been beautifully coated and polished. It’s actually coming down pretty good so I’m anxious to see what the heavier bands in the streamer to my West do.

I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?

That's how you make averages.

Oh my

Couple more bumps over the next day hopefully for this area

The PV always guaranteed to deliver!

one big difference between December and January weeklies is the precip anomolies. In December, they were brown or even dark red. In January they are normal or green.

its going to trend north till Friday.....and then trend back south again. Its always 1 step forward and e4 steps back

Here are CTP’s thoughts for tomorrow. By the mid to late afternoon (New Years Eve), a wave of low pressure will drift eastward across the Great Lakes, and drag an Arctic front south through the Commonwealth. Underneath a favorable left exit region of an upper jet, this front could produce a threat of snow squalls late Wednesday evening into the New Year. Current expectation is that the front and associated snow squall threat will move into northwest PA in the 6-8PM timeframe and then race southeast, crossing the I-99 corridor between 10PM and midnight and then getting into the Lower Susquehanna Valley between midnight and 2AM. Anyone planning to travel for the New Year should be prepared for the risk of snow squalls. If a Snow Squall Warning is issued, delay travel or exit the highway at the next opportunity.