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Good practice for driving in snow! One Saturday night we went bowling and when we came out the parking lot was a sheet of ice. Even better it was on a slight incline, so you could do a string of donuts moving downhill. Good stuff! A few years later they ruined it by putting planters etc. all over it. Lol.

Because you've already gotten a big storm. DTW/TOL haven't.

18z (EURO AIFS, GFS, and AIGFS)...yuck. Ensembles appear steady, but that is a big time warming trend across deterministic modeling at 240. I wouldn't call if a flip, but welcome to wx model watching this winter. Yet again, we are likely dealing with feedback...this time w/ an Alaskan vortex which cuts off our cold air supply. That kind of makes sense, but the downstream effects are just model chaos. Do I think it spins up that strong? Nope. It probably is a legit player, but like so, so many other features this winter past d8...it is likely over amped to a point it just ruins the run from a rigor standpoint. Also, we are seeing a trend for the NAO to simply evaporate. That could happen. It is very difficult to model. The good trend is that there is a trend for a western ridge by Jan10. A reasonable model bias(and not feedback) is to break down the NAO too quickly. I am guessing that is in play. But the 18z deterministic suite is about as ugly as it gets, and a complete flip from 0z and 6z. Thankfully, most of that is in fantasy land.

Hoping Greenfield can at least lock in a decent glaze for Monday sunrise so I can get some good pictures.

It’s only not relevant if you ignore the warming temperatures since then.

My daytime temp never got above 33 today. Now at 31. Been a fair amount of low busts in the temp department lately. Love it.

Climate is dynamic and ever changing, 1840s is not relevant

What's nuts are there are people within 10-15 miles of me who are above 60", even close to 70" for the year. Convection seems to be all that matters any more. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Mele Kalikimaka a warm Hawaiian Christmas!

We had a 68mph guest with wind advisory just two weeks ago Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

18Z GFS still shows a wave of LP developing on a stalled out front and Upton believes it -so we might be tracking another one of these northern stream systems soon estimated arrival time Jan 1st or possibly 2nd AFD from KOKX

The first half of January looks to bring this potential…

We need a southern stream system and all the difficulties that brings us to get rid of that dry strip. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have always understood that after d10, modeling can be woefully incorrect. However, modeling would still produce a lot of plausible solutions. I just can't escape the idea that something seems really off about wx modeling since late November. I don't know if they are struggling w/ the MJO which is kind of indiscernible at times or if the cold air is a problem. But we have seen feedback (sometimes really bad at times) and patterns after d10 which make zero sense at all. It literally looks like Jackson Pollack has taken the wheel. I do think the thread of Canada being scoured of cold is growing with each run...right as our pattern gets right. Such is life, and not uncommon during recent winters. But let's remain patient. When modeling is spitting out stuff like this....do we really trust their ouput? Yes, I know it's way out there, but again....even prior to November modeling was at least creating solutions which made since. With the images below, none of that teleconnects. Even spookier, the Euro kind of produced something similar at 12z.

Hasn’t been online since April

Or was it?

Lots of posters kept harping on the gfs and little was discussed about the euro.

From wxrisk. ... FWIW!!

On Pivotal, the numbers don't count sleet. On Tropical Tidbits, they do, but sleet is treated the same as snowfall, which inflates the totals. Both approaches lead to inaccuracy, since snowfall figures are the sum of snow and sleet.

It was a disaster

Getting pretty goddamned tired of the dry slots...

For you, it is a difficult question................ For others, it is a simple conclusion

Here you go:

It’s crazy how quickly this thing evolved. Just a couple days ago I was talking about going ice fishing tomorrow. That won’t be happening now. .

Thats why the Euro is rated as one of the superior models we have ...least amount of flaws in development