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Dear lord….

Exactly. Maybe it depends on who's working at the Time, lol.

So the AI version of the CMC?

Looking like single digit for highs sat-sun up here.

Weeklies go full weenie for pretty much all of February. I’ll believe it when I see it but that was an impressive run today.

Yeah those echoes really moved in and it came down nicely. This was a nice event.

NAM has the Baja over California at 84 .

Reminds me of a certain storm 30 years ago

The NBM seems to show the most likely and heaviest snow North of 40 into SE Kentucky and SWVa. The GFS and ICON blend, shifted south by 100-150 miles, would produce that image on the left.

Eric Webb seems to think the AI’s shifted toward OP for the suppression idea

That was a once in a generation event, we’re more likely to see another 2003/1996/2016 before that.

Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one.

Only hazards cold ??

We we are close enough for snowfall maps to be useful given the strong signal for a storm across guidance.

Cool graphic of the 12z Euro AI ensembles from Tomer. Basically, our region (focused over @Bob Chill, but covering most of us) has lower dispersion on snow totals relative to central PA up to NYC and BOS and the deep south.

Euro moved towards way less upper air warmth on the 12z run in North GA. This temp cross section is at Blairsville, GA. Notice how much more of the column is isothermal most of the time than in the 6z run. The 6z run of course cuts off with the storm in progress but still noticeable difference nonetheless. If things can trend a bit more that direction as we move forward, I’d expect more snow/sleet vs ZR to start showing up over N GA and the Upstate. Of course track/intensity would need to cooperate, but that’s a given.

The NAM would've been one hell of a run

never keep a lady waiting. its ok for her to keep you waiting, but don't do it to her. it will never ever be forgotten, and when she tells her friends about you, that's the story they're going to hear, and so will the new boyfriend....

Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.

Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.

18z nam not looking too bad at the end of it's run with the Baja low.

Is anyone able to tell the timing of this yet? Thanks.

If this threat doesn't materialize in some capacity the letdown will be more excruciating than last February.

30 day mean on Weeklies