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I like Dr. No, I pray he cures are ailments

Ukie - bit of a weird evolution but low captures similarly to icon

Euro has the extra data tonight, so it's to be trusted even more than usual. Although, it's really going to come down to how the confluence is handled I think. I think there is still a possibility we win real big with this one if we can thread the needle. Practical expectation is to expect sleet.

The first swath of watches are being upgraded to warnings back in OK/TX.

Great 0Z suite so far GFS 12-18", didn't see p-type issues... liking the model with the ingested hurricane hunter data UKMet 12-16" Canadian has a lot of sleet; 6-10" ICON 10-20" Let's see what Dr. No has to say later.

the fact that the CMC is a clear amped outlier and still delivers sig to borderline major snow is a testament to how favorable this setup is

I can't wait to see the EC ones in a few days

FWIW, I'm seeing about 1.3" for the UK and 1.1" for the GFS on Pivotal

UKMet continuing to show my idea of where the heaviest snow will lie. That corridor along the M/D is gonna get shelled. The WV Panhandle and Northern Neck of VA west of the Potomac is also looking excellent. This is going to be a fun storm when it materializes. Also, I put in an inquiry in the Banter thread if anyone is interested

Skinner has been a good surprise.

Huge variation still in the placement and number of lows between umet and gfs

I mentioned February 2014 earlier in this thread. The UKMET essentially repeats that. Huge front end thump, a period of a light wintry mix, then the CCB swinging through at the end. Would be a widespread foot plus for the area.

Can someone post UKIE Kuchera?

Yeah even to my layman ears that doesn't sound right...lends credence to the possibility that it's overamped

I could see it going over the Cape...about it.

Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday

Although Dr. No has been masquerading around as Dr. Yes on this storm so far.

What I really meant was that model forecasted long duration events most of the time don't come to fruition. I see them all the time advertise in models and yes, some do happen but most of the time it's not as long as the model is showing. I love long, duration events. Outside of total snowfall that is my second desire out of a snowstorm. If we get a 24+ our snowstorm out of this one will be super ecstatic.

With that prolonged easterly fetch some of the spots in SENJ and EMA that are favored for ocean enhancement could approach 2" liquid - a lot of which could be frozen. Great to see both the ICON and UK well over 1" liquid across most of our area.

The next threat looks interesting, at least. Don't know if i have it in me for another heartbreak though haha

For the cold outbreak following the storm, at least on the GFS I've noticed a consistent pattern where the VA and even NC piedmont gets sub-zero lows and we're stuck in the single digits. This isn't elevation dependent since it's placing them in low elevation areas to the south and snowpack is high everywhere. Instead it looks like it's because of low-level winds that are calm down south but present at 925mb above Maryland. I've seen this same thing in forecasts after snow events last year and I still can't understand the dynamical reason for it. Is Emporia VA and thereabouts really a better place for vodka cold following a storm pass than MD?

So where do you think this is going? Over ORH?

Paging Dr. No

I’m praying Winston Salem gets spared the ZR. The QPF has been consistently 1.5+. The trends are heading that way though. Best I can hope for is IP