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  2. Haha yup. its definitely coming. I’ll go out on a limb. Islip sees 6”+ from this storm.
  3. that's hour 114, wait a little bit and there'll be more good hits
  4. without proper data sampling, this model watching is useless. The NYC forum posters are jumping of the Verazzano right now after tonights runs. If the 12Z models tomorrow do show some slight improvment, this will be a fish storm. I would want to see the OZ NAM run tommorrow night at 72 hours. IF the LP is at the benchmark then, game on. Going to bed
  5. Would be nice to get another model on board. Gfs vs. The world usually doesn't end well
  6. As you should. What fun is it riding the ukie here.
  7. GFS is best for these southern stream coastals but we need some major shifts soon or this threat is done
  8. yeah, I think the QPF ticking down is moreso a function of losing some of the super-super amped ones, but on the whole they congealed pretty well further west. Now we just need to get to work on the "more north" part
  9. I'm not backing down yet. I still think it's coming. The Canadian is fixable. The gfs continues to improve even though it's a total trash model. The ukie looks lost. The Euro needs to show something by 12z tomorrow or the threat is in trouble.
  10. There are 2 types of ass models. The GFS is not the type I like.
  11. Honestly GEFS is a tick better than 18Z again, QPF aside...the mean and spread has moved west once again.
  12. Normal for Ukie. im riding the GFS here
  13. 1/28 00z GEFS total mean QPF
  14. Close enough So we can all get a bomb…that’s what we all want.
  15. I was just about to comment on this because of the higher amounts being much further north now
  16. This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though. I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.
  17. I mean 12”+ for Long Island is not out to sea but sure
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