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True. -AO are known to make this area cold. Just curious how the -WPO affects us. Add with that a MJO in phase 8. Good gracious all these teleconnections. Was nice years ago when it never was even discussed. Seems today’s times are so confusing. Simple days of forecasting are long past.

Genuinely curious--could you provide some examples?

Most of us on here describe deep lows which cut to our west as a cutter. Sometimes they ride north of the Great Lakes traveling from west to east. Other times they start out near the Gulf or Southeastern States and lift up through the Eastern Lakes anywhere from Cleveland to Eastern PA into Canada. Either way parts of the region at least make into at least the 50s with mostly rain for our area. The strongest cutter that I experienced since the 1990s was 11-11-95. A deep low rode north near the APPS into Canada and a secondary developed just to our west. This delivered 70-75 mph gusts in Long Beach which the western half of town losing power for nearly 24hrs. The worst flood cutter I remember here was later in January 1996 with a deep snowpack. All the roads were like rivers in Long Beach as the giant snow piles on the side of the road blocked the storm drains. The most recent damaging flood cutter upstate was 12-25-20. The 40” +record snow pack rapidly melted and lead to serious flash flooding with 1.50” of rain and landslides damaging the ski resorts.

A -nao with a -ao would be ideal for us. I don't mind a pattern reset, as long as we can get back to cold thereafter.

Picked up about 1/3” here in Lebanon and it covered everything quickly. Temp down to 20° .

15.8 this morning. But looks like a mild trend coming up for the 2nd half of December.

Page hits..

lol why ask? Sometimes you need to consider the source and just move on.

December can be the coldest month in la nina, but doesn't mean the other 2 months "torch". Also, this December has been more than "cool" so far.

No. Wrong BAM.

Near 7:00pm the temp is holding near 21 degrees. The snow flurries/showers is still continuing. That makes 3 hours with it still snowing, just very light. My meltdown will be forethcoming.

They did all they could to let the giants win but got the W

Used my new leaf blower for this .5” of powder - how fun!

Heck if I know a good answer for either of the above. Sorry. That could be interesting. There has been some on again, off again talk about a potential -NAO across the boards, depending on your source based on either wave breaks in the N. Atlantic or strat. stuff from around a month ago. Could be a little bit of both. If an Greenland block kisses an Aleutian block we might get some fun as suggested in fantasy land on the 18z GFS: 500mb: The surface has fine looking Canadian high dripping down into the CONUS: One thing about this pattern is that it's blocky is some spots in the N. Hemisphere, not just the Aleutians. I have some family in Europe right now, so I have been watching there a little more than usual and they have some intersting patterns progged by the Euro and GFS: Could you imagine if we had a pattern like that in the US? Highs over top and a series of meandering lows to the south.

I made my family open presents yesterday. White Christmas accomplished.

Awesome stuff brother! When you have a chance it would be interesting to see the top 5 least snowy periods in the foothills over the last 75 years with the snow drought we have going on now. Great data here! Thanks buddy!

The Euro is the only model that I could find that had it at 12z just as @mitchnick mentioned a little earlier. CTP had a 20% chance of a snow shower. Even a special weather statement for the LSV would have been nice especially with it hitting at rush hour. I-81 was crawling & road conditions were not great. My normal 15 minute commute was more than doubled.

I was thinking 69 and 44 lol

as I said earlier roads are pretty bad.Probably best for people to stay home. Things aren't a whole lot better yet. Probably no reason to go out and make things harder for first responders.

I just measured .4” in Marysville! Beatuful surprise snow to freshen up the snow pack.

I think it’s just a confirmation bias. You see a shitty OP run and your like, “oh FFS look at this, you know this will happen” see a nice OP run and it’s, “no way on earth that’s happening”

Ops have most definitely led the way picking up on flips at times but it's pretty logical. Beyond 5 days, ops are about as accurate as a single ensemble member. They basically are a single ensemble member. There are times when ops consistently diverge from the mean long range pattern and its the first sign of a change. Works both ways though. Sometimes ops consistently diverge from the mean at long range only to cave in that direction (for better or worse lol). That said, it always grabs my attention when ops keep spitting out a cold pattern in the lr when ensembles are grim. It can be the first sign of a flip that isn't showing on the means. You can take it a step further and sort through individual ensembles and see how big the camp is that agrees with the op and see if that camp starts growing over time. Gives more confidence to the idea. Make sense?

What is the average time frame for one to remain negative? Wonder what effects it will have going into spring. Also with a -NAO wonder what effects it will have.

I was thinking 71 and 46 but that's just me

That -WPO has got to be one of the most persistent features I've seen on models. Don't take this as an addition to the warm vs cold debate, I'm just struck by how well that Aleutian ridge is holding on. It's not just that there is a ridge there either, but how stout it has been.