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Over 1.5”

Well that’s what we get in October anyway…it’s mid October not mid December. A trough in the east is not pacific/zonal flow.

47 minutes ago- tornado damage near Fayetteville Airport

Yes, but if you use the slide function to put the forecast in motion, the cooler waters are making a bee-line east. Should they continue after the end of the forecast period (7/27), you'd probably at least end up with a La Nada next winter, if not a weak Niña imho. I guess the question then is why wouldn't the cooler waters continue east? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2026101100&fh=1

Four tornado warnings in NC

Looks like it’s OTG again just northwest of RDU on 540

Time sensitive, but you can really see some decent convergence setting up in the western suburbs. Maybe angling for some heavier rain later on? https://mesonet.umd.edu/media/graphics/wspd_10m_plot.png?v=1791736880

They said mild PAC flow which is what it is . It’s one brief cool shot in and out . A brief of cool in a sea of warm. It’s not a deep cold long trough which is what was said . Look at the country

First flakes across New England next weekend? Kiss of death for winter?

System total is around 2.5” IMBY (estimating from outer Cocorahs gauge).

2.72 not sure ill make it to 3 but still a pretty significant event

2.05" and raining.

Hrrr shows an area of heavy stuff later circling the low. Whoever gets under that might pick up 1-2” more on top of whatever they got.

It did start its rapid weakening just before landfall. Now the sting development offset this somewhat, but a string jet is not a tropical feature. Posted this on the Tropical Forum. SAR imagery is DA BOMB! Enlightening for @CoastalWx? He proby will go, "how can I use SAR imagery to help me better for an impending or ongoing snowstorm?! Conventional GOES imagery SUX, I need something more!" ----- This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC. Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center. It was quite elongated. So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall. That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status. That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front). Once that happens, a system is PT/ET. Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt. The SAR tends to have high bias. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS I have always said when a system is transitioning like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status. Why not? If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolutely no reason to think it can not work the other way. This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall. A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr. It is *process* that takes time. And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue. ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical. In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.

This is what the 12z Gfs drops after 2pm today.

1.6” here in Linglestown so far, 55 degrees, 2nd cup of coffee.. I love October.. .

He seems to strikeout as often as the white sox do..lol

Marquette set a record high of 81° yesterday. Detroit was "only" 71°.

Somebody was just saying Thursday I think, that there were no troughs, and cool weather in sight, due to the western Pac typhoons not recurving lol.

2.78”, becoming more drizzly and showery

Ignore this at your own forecast peril if you plan on publishing work touting a non-winter along the east coast. The final two analogs have very similar placement of the central-based connective node this season, which is in the vicinity of 170 degrees longitude in the central Pacific, however, they were appreciably weaker El Niño events that were largely bereft of any eastern competition. The forcing was in the central Pacific simply because they were central-Pacific El Niño events, which is why there was no competing forces stretching the convection, as is the case this year. Thus it is for this reason in addition to the warming climate that the second half of the impending winter is highly unlikely to be as consistently cold as the coming season, despite each being viable polar analogs. It is for these reasons that this season the warmer periods will be of longer duration and of greater magnitude than the colder periods relative the 1957-1958 and 1965-1966 analogs. However, each of these seasons are relatively strong polar analogs and the center of the convective forcing was nearly identical to where the central node is expected to reside during the coming season, at around 170 degrees longitude.

Places out west like SLC have been getting consistent stretched of +10 for weeks at a time. I pointed it out a couple of summers ago. Normal high was 88F and they were clocking 100F on 14 day forecasts. Its bone dry out there, so if they get stuck in an airmass, there is no moisture in the air to slow down the endless skyrocket each day

Not @CoastalWx. He would be "tea-kettle" STEAMED if that happened b/c it wasn't within 5 mi of Weymouth! GFS not by itself here. It's a quite impressive cold trough for mid-Oct, and fits the very strong El Nino pattern well. The only decent CONUS cold shots in such winters occur in the NEUS.

Very healthy event here this morning. It’s funny bc we all talked about needing tropical remnants here and finally got it. Also…weekend rule is still a thing.