All Activity

I'm surprised the N. Hemisphere pattern isn't going more +AAM like, which is a GOA low (usually around -100dm even in the warm season with +4 GLAAM), and a High south of Greenland, also approaching +100dm.

Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily.

The hot dry weather is terrible. I lost some of the first tomatoes that were about to ripen up in early July due to sunscald. It was that horrific heat wave to start July combined with the bone dry conditions. Thankfully things turned around after that with a cooler pattern and a good amount of rain the rest of July, so I've been getting a big crop of tomatoes the last couple weeks. It wouldn't have happened though had we stayed in the hot very dry pattern. We don't want too much rain, but it's important to get enough. Drought combined with heat is the worst.

Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern!

The ground is back to being very dry here after missing out on the heavy rain earlier in the week. I didn't water the vegetable garden though due to this rain event tonight into tomorrow. Hopefully it won't disappoint. Don't want to see major flooding, but I'd like a nice 1 to 2 inches of rain. We're still in a moderate drought here.

Might be a one snowstorm winter lol. Better make it good!

HRRR is close to a jack here. Don't really need or want it. Send it up Dendy's way.

I've been debbing but this part isn't lost me--I have always viewed super niños as 50/50 for that reason. I did notice that 97-98 was the only one in the bunch that had zero chance as I didn't see even 3 consecutive days that were cold enough for snow the entire winter. At least 72-73 did have a couple cold periods but we just missed a storm, I think. Silly side note: My pattern superstition thinks because all superstition dating back to 66 have gone good-bad-good-bad-good...ack, lol

Heavy rain this evening up here near Macungie. Already crossed 1/2”.

If they bring Elias back, that is definitely ownership incompetence. Now as far as before that...I mean they have spent a lot more than Angelos, and have certainly boosted clubhouse morale with their willingness to commit to players (another facet sorely missing before). Aa far as how the team has been run, though? Elias. Because if you notice, the problem has become less money and more about the system itself, and Elias' roster decisions They let him be the "architect" as Cal Jr. put it--so what we see now is his. That being said...if they head into this off-season after another losing season and decide to keep Elias? That would be clueless to say the least. I hope Rubenstein was just trying to do the PR thing when he said "I'm pleased"--at that particular moment Elias was sitting right there, lol But I don't know man...I hope that's all it was!

Heavy rain here now. Having to put down fungicide, toxic runoff and higher numbers of disease carrying pests are major side effects of wetter weather..

I think we will see that kind of summer here next year although our rate of 90 degree temperatures is not rising anywhere nearly as quickly.

I've said before I'm not a big fan of the ELI, and frankly disagree it's more east-based than 1997, but I also don't think that it matters. Solar is another reason to bet against the 2009 and 1957 analogs.

Don't look at these crazy records from 1911 103 at Mt Pocono is a sea level adjusted equivalent temperature of 114!! Outside of those 3 days in 1911 Mt Pocono hasn't been hotter than 95!! Five of the top ten are from 1911 including one in May! What was happening that year? In that same torrid stretch Newark hit 103 and Boston hit their all time high of 104 and it even topped 100 in the Green and White Mountains!! https://recordtemps.in/mount-pocono-pennsylvania

Not sure Alby is gonna be fired that quickly. Kinda rare for a rookie manager to get fired after 1 season but ya never know, I guess. Feels like it would take a bad start next year for that to happen a la Cal Sr.

I'm kind of surprised that 1991 isn't on that list back in the 90s the common saying was we went straight from winter to summer. 1991 had a mind boggling 6 90 degree days in May and the heat kept going all summer long much like 1988 and 1993 and 1999 and 2010.

Huh? 0.0 on the day

https://recordtemps.in/mount-pocono-pennsylvania Thanks I really like that you appreciate all kinds of extreme weather not just the wintry type. I appreciate it all too but I'm much less enthused about severe weather after having a tree fall on the roof of this house back in 2018 and having to get part of the roof and the railing on the balcony replaced. I would still rank that 10 day 1993 heat wave as the most incredible heatwave I've experienced in this area in my lifetime. Have a look at this incredible record from Mt Pocono. https://recordtemps.in/mount-pocono-pennsylvania See how the top 3 all time highest temperatures on record from there are all from the same heatwave in 1911 and how there is nothing else even remotely close to that torrid stretch? I find that absolutely incredible -- and out of the top 10 5 of them are from 1911 including one in May! After seeing this I started to wonder how incredible that 103 at Mt Pocono really was and I read up on lapse rates and how under sunny dry conditions the lapse rate is around 5.5 degrees per 1000 feet. Since Mt Pocono is around 2000 feet that would equate to an absolutely incredible sea level equivalent temperature of 114 degrees! Since we already have sea level equivalent pressure why can't we have sea level equivalent temperature too? I think this is a record that won't be broken in our lifetimes as outside of 1911 the next highest temperature recotded there is 95 and nothing above 94 in our lifetimes. That equates to a much more reasonable 105 to 106 maximum sea level temperature. I really would love to see some sort of map and explanation about the summer of 1911 and what made it so hot. And how both Mt Pocono and Newark maxed out at the same 103 temperature while Boston reached their all time high of 104 during that time period. I read that even the mountsins of Vermont and New Hampshire were over 100 degrees back then. I look at top temperature records and when I find a difference of at least three degrees between number 1 and number 2 I find it particularly historic. So for example July 1966 LGA hit 107 degrees and their next hottest temperature is 104 from July 2011. In that same heatwave EWR hit 108 and their next highest temperature is 105 which has happened many times including twice in the same heatwave in 1993 the same one I consider the most historic of my lifetime since I dont remember the big July 1977 heatwave outside of that blackout we had back then. By the way I find it amusing how some people complain about air conditioning costs and don't complain about the much higher costs of heating. They dont seem quite as happy when they use less heat in the winter. As for me if it's not snowing I dont have any use for cold weather especially if it's windy. By the way some drought this is, it's raining here heavily again tonight!

Radiative heat from the deck…should be over grass. Your spot may be better for rain though.

Yeah, it's better to go on Saturday. I did this the first Saturday of October in 2024, just before the Bridgehampton K-Mart closed, and the traffic wasn't that bad. Then, took the ferry to New London.

One thing for future reference. We have so many models now to chose from, and recently I had been looking at the ICON model. I've been watching it for the past several days, and it has a clear high bias for TC intensity in Dolphin's case. It tends to initialize the storm too low pressure and intensify it to the 880s once near China. That doesn't make much sense given how Dolphin keeps expanding from ERCs and its large eye already. And also it continues to gain latitude. Empirical observations over time show that TCs almost never regain their former intense "glory" after their initial first intense peak (often w/ a pinhole eye). So keep the ICON in mind for this b/c you know how some will pick the model that shows the absolute worst, and run w/ that! I still would like to see how the ICON handles long-tracked systems in other basins.

Holy torrential downpours in the Coatesville area this is some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen - at least as a fully functioning adult

Barely made 70 today on stiff E breeze.