All Activity

Cool radar today - lots of storms moving in different directions.

A few minutes from Cooperstown.

Lol. Unfortunately, it’s a full ride on mower.

True, that cell near McKinney especially. But it’s very sporadic.

It kind of has, although coverage is not really widespread.

Yes really, anyone talking about how CC is making our summers *hotter* is only referring to minimum temps.

No, where is this place, upstate?

My neighbors are complete morons. The rains came and dowsed their fire so they poured oil on the fire which then caused it to flare up and almost ended up burning themselves and their 5 year old kid who was dancing around the fire.

I really detest this new climate

Couldn't have one completely good day.... at least it was sunny for the big parade lol. I hate our new Ireland climate. CC summers mean cool and rainy for us. and if it's not cool and rainy it's warm and rainy, but never truly hot.

Damp and dreary back home in little ferry.

The temperature rose into the middle 70s at the New York Botanical Garden before clouds and showers moved in during the late afternoon. Some photos:

Are they too cold because of trying to dampen down their overproduction of TCs? Why adjust global models for TCs anyway? That's not what global models are for! Use tropical models for TCs and use global models for temperate cyclones.

I havent sat thru one game or practice for my kids without getting rained on this season Unreal

good exercise if they are using a walk behind mower, cheaper than a gym membership

I thought we would be left out also. Have had the same conditions here. Was surprised to see us on the far east end of it.

No reason to think next winter will be much different than the last winter or the last several. Enso may not be a big player this year, so I’d lean more on the pdo and polar domain. Qbo going negative, but solar may have already maxed. No idea yet.

It's been quite an active start to the season this year...I'm not sure if it's like top 5 but its been on the active side.

I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable.

Crazy loud boomer here in Jeffersonton

It has been cloudy, with periods of rain, all day here. Not surprised to be left out of the watch. Good luck/stay safe everyone else!

I don’t think the a scenario 2 is going to happen unfortunately

Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet.

Severe thunderstorms in Culpepper.