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Right...near the solar min....

Its a week away. The models have been trash in the mid to long range.

Well said Bret. I think these debates are helpful to let us know who calls it "Gulf of America" and who doesn't

I can dismiss whatever data and science you throw at me because that’s my right. Believe what you want to believe and I will do the same. Viva la America…

Warm. That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked.

Blame the pacific. We need to go back to the Miller As and even Miller B storms.

To be fair, I think a lot of people love to pull a one month cold sample and go “ see see see!!!! It’s cold” when the other 11 months in the year have generally set warm anomalies. Somehow, sprinkling in a few below normal months cancels out the overarching warmth trend. Not to turn this into a climate change debate, but that’s the stuff that’s going on. Ignore the wholesale change in favor of cherry picked cold anomalies

We all know where everyone stands by this point. Debating CC and CO2 is beating a dead horse now on this subforum. We’re in the middle of winter with the potential for some action…let’s try to keep it to weather and save this talk for a rainy April day.

12z GFS drops a total of 0.00” QPF on RDU through January 9

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. Significant cold and no big storms. Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

Well if we want to talk about the weather in January…GFS brings a system to SNE 1/7.

I've already exceeded the total daily snow forecast (at 9am no less) just in the needle streamer that dumped on me, its connecting to lake Ontario. 2-3" was expected. The sun came out for all to shovel and plow before it wiggled back over. 50-60cm/20-24" drifts in the driveway. Too bad about the melt and the rain on Sunday, if it was snow this would match last Dec's snowpack and be another snowmageddon. A diamond of a December nonetheless.

It's amazing how warm those springs were ... Not sure if there was specific cool waves along the MAMs but I don't believe those offset the warmth enough to make them average? interesting

Not you....the sentiment behind the post.

Nope. I think a lot of Mets who broke and honked the big storm horn for that 4-11 timeframe are going to be looking for excuses. This has become a punt like we saw 2019-21 where the pattern change keeps getting delayed and then even those drinking hopium look up and it’s March. I’m trying not to be pessimistic but when you’re pointing to indices and analogs and trying to pull something that will happen IF this ridge moves or that so and so and it’s all 2 weeks down the road with models showing nothing positive and it’s January, you’re in a bad spot. We should be seeing fantasy storms and we’re not. It’s not even getting us fantasy rains.

Yes it was a typo. 59”.

I think Carvers is headed to Nash vegas for the Music City bowl, and he usually gets us started in the AM. Def. some pull back across multiple sub forums here and Southernwx against all the excitement of the fantasy storms yesterday centered on Jan 8 and beyond We'll see how the wheel of models spins today.

His camera is running as well.

Damn I missed a CC debate with Wolfie?

I don’t think anyone said it wouldn’t get cold or snow. You cant dismiss evidence and fact based science as crap though. The numbers are the numbers, they aren’t fake or made up. Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t make them any less real. I think it’s important to point that out. Again, it will still snow, it will still get cold, but changes are happening.

Leaf blower downy flakes.

I vividly remember Al Gore saying it was never going to snow again in New England. What a weenie.

The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter.

An inch of fluff in Jan. Be still my heart.

Last year got on late, Previous 2 yrs, There was no ice at all, Been many times and filled up half or a full 5 gal bucket in the past, Been many times and came back with a few or an empty bucket, Good chance we should have some luck as they tend to spawn early season, Went a few times last year but did not get on the ice until Feb and caught a few dozen, Nothing special.