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I know that it often depends on wind direction/humidity but when looking at the models, what is the 850 MB general criteria (for our region) to support 100 degrees? I had always believed that 850mb temp of 15c would support 90F and 850mb >20c would support 100° F?

3 thunderstorms last night, the last one at 2:30 am with heavy rain and super intense lightning, too. i’ll have to check the rain total but it’s been a wet few days out here—good.

Yeah the lighting last night was absolutely amazing. That was the most charged storm that I can recall in past couple of years. Lots of close strikes downtown here.

Early summer doing what it dews

they'll do that

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1993) NYC: 95 (1929) LGA: 95 (1994) JFK: 94 (1962) Lows: EWR: 49 (1950) NYC: 48 (1950) LGA: 49 (1950) JFK: 53 (1959) Historical: 1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum) 1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel) 1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico. 1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Way too early in the day for me to think. Congrats you!

Not fun!

Lack of sunshine also leads to other issues such as mildews, various plant and lawn fungus, garden issues, plant blights, etc., and seasonal depression issues for some. Its so old now, I rather have sun and a heat versus a swamp and no sun for weeks. Far less sun versus clouds the last 90 days.

This is gonna suck, isn’t it? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a temp/DP combo quite like 96/75

I haven't had a chance to review all the posts last 4 hours, but from my vantage point. THREE 100 deg days in June is still a possibility INLAND NJ-NYS/CT, BUT, same caveats as yesterday... pattern isobars show quite a bit of weakness so its easier to Seabreeze early in the season, plus T STORM cloud cover debris is unknown. (not sure how EC spreads 100 so far inland across LI/NYC next week and so I have to expect some tempering of those excessive projections in the weekend updates). I think 00z/18 GFS MEX MOS is wayyy too cool on daytimes for KEWR but its something to keep in mind. Thursday max at KEWR is my decision break point on any 100 degree thread for next week that would possibly issue Thursday evening. I've no plans to thread tomorrows fairly widespread severe wind potential along I95. Am pretty sure we'll see a a nw flow MCS - iso severe in NY metro early Sunday morning as the warm front returns. My KEWR 90 degree days are Thu, possibly both Sat/Sun, certainly Mon-Wed and then maybe again Thu and Sat of next week with 3 100's possibly??? embedded between Mon-Sat of next week. SVR potential in slow moving deluges wherever sea breezes intersect next Mon-Tue (if not capped). Noticed besides the 2-4K J ML Cape early next week- there are rather large 7H-5H lapse rates. IF something goes, would be microburst w hail/wind/ flooding...thats IFFFF.

DCA: 103 IAD: 102 BWI: 102 RIC: 102

Yesterday's plains convection drove this system well south of the model forecast. It's a big bust for many locations across Iowa. I'm at least getting one more decent batch of general rain this morning. We are getting into late June, but we are still waiting for our first good thunderstorm. The vast majority of our rain this spring has been the stratiform type with little to no thunder.

The 6Z Euro AI likes NJ for the 100 degree heat.

.65 since last night. More scattered thunderstorms today. WB 11Z HRRR

70 / 68 clouds (day 5 hour 108). Should see some breaks and with the sun temps spike low to upper 80s in the hot spots. Storms later this evening along the boundary as the warm front comes north further. Tomorrow a shade hottter than today and again pending on clouds some get their first or next (2nd/ or 3rd) 90 degree reading. Friday drier transition day before the heat builds in Satruday. Euro keeps the mini MCS into New England Sat night into Sunday and the GFS gets rain here Saturday night and lingering debris clouds Sunday keeping the rainy weekend consecutive streak hope alive for those few hoping for more rain. 850 MB temps are >18c Sunday and then >21C Mon - Wed , peak heat Mon - Wed, Tue the century mark most probable. We'll see if the wind / flow keep the N/W component and how hot it'll be. Looking like starting tomorrow 8 of 10 90 degree days to close the month in the hot spots / wamrest scenario otherwise 5-7 of the next 10. In the way beyond Beyond there heights look elevated with ridging into the EC with an overall warm - hot but continued wet look.

The Euro and CMC both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze Monday through Wednesday. They don’t have the upper low to the east like the GFS shows with its stronger onshore flow. But I agree that NJ will probably see the greatest 100° potential heat next week away from the sea breeze influence.

Oh I would too . But at some point something has to give . The five finger boredom death punch the last 5 years is enough to make you gouge eyes out with a grapefruit spoon

Today should see some breaks in the aftn with temps 75-80. It won't be that bad.

Congrats Florida on the repeat. They kept the cup in USA!

I've seen a few of those this year around the house.

If edits are still allowed, I'd like to adjust up one degree at each airport: DCA: 98 IAD: 97 BWI: 98 RIC:98

I'd rather take my chances with a cane.

Picked up 0.37" from several rounds of showers and thundershowers yesterday, nothing severe. What we DO have is crazy humidity and mugginess, yuck. 2004 has saved me from setting new record 'warm minimums' last three mornings, but I've been within 1 to 1.5 degrees of that each morning. Currently cloudy and 67.8/66.5 at 8 am.

We may have more chances through the 11-15 day as the heat tries to tickle.