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Gfs worthless at this point.

the way the HRRR is trending soon it’ll show 6” for everybody lol

Yup. Ya ninja'd me. I posted SV showed the same. Not made at it

18z gfs ticking NW too

My station out at Fire Island popped up to the 40s earlier. Since 2:00 PM when the wind subsided and backed around from SW to W the air temperature has dropped 6 degrees to 36 and the DP down 4 degrees to 31. No big ocean warming looks to happen at this point.

Dog, Imma be so real with you I haven't been paying attention to this storm till literally around noon today. Yesterday I wrote a 10 page paper in a day (nailed it btw) and the day before that I did my atmosphere and weather final (crushed it as well) so I have not had time to go into the dynamics of this stuff sadly. Though from a very quick overview the latest HRRR has the trough a little bit deeper and position a bit souther which helps get everything moving quicker. A consequence of this change is that positive temp advection is more favored for our area (which encourages diffusion aloft and surface lift). Here is the 20z HRRR temp advection vs the 18

Oh absolutely! I just had to laugh at that particular depiction.

Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board.

GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z

You guys are due for sure.

Light rain/sleet mix started in Hagerstown.

Cant ask for much more in terms of early season snowfall on the coast. Had 37 degree water temps inside the inlet. 42 one mile off, and 48 seventeen miles off where we were fishing. Friends that went deep dropping in the Tom's Canyon earlier in the week still touched 58-60 in several spots. Grateful this isnt an onshore wind setup, with the early season warm (relatively) warm water. Hope everyone gets to enjoy, and get some pictures with the snow and christmas lights/decorations.

Cloudy. 28.8

If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well

@SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs

You must have a.beautiful location....Fond memories on that pond....we had a house on Great Island for many years, great pond for boating with access to go anywhere.....Great Island has changed so much since we sold.....too much NY and CT money moved in, changed the character.....sorry for off topic.

Chances NYC gets 3 inches, 50 percent?

I never focus on having the most and that wasn't complaining. Same here. I was all set to be thrilled for 3"

The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder!

Keep creeping back south and east with that heavier stuff...give us 2 more ticks

Here’s the issue. It’s like having a warm early May, then a cooldown leading up to the June solstice, and declaring that summer is over and not coming. Playing devil’s advocate, though—winter is cumulative and depends on a cold source and upstream snowpack. Summer doesn’t necessarily rely on those same factors to still turn out hot, even if there’s an early “snowball” effect to cool things down prior to the solstice.

Just a pattern that sets up a better overlap of cold and precipitation. Thankfully it's still mid December

It’s beautiful

That the model shows lightning flash density. To be honest I have no idea what makes lightning happen (neither did my professor the best we have is a separation of negatively charged graupel and ice crystals in a convection cell). Though I'm sure the strong lift throughout the column and positive temp advection in the 700mb layer have something to do with it.

Beefin up