All Activity

3knam has a nice front end thump

You can see that possibility on the Nam 850's at 57hrs. Look at the colder line of temps thanks to uvv and precip intensity.

Pretty evident someone is going to get a major COC tease .. there will be be a 5-10” band either close to New England or SW areas. Just north east of that coating to 2”

Lol, their word salad point & clicks are amusing.

So we have a couple of meso-models driving this south with snow all the way down into Delaware. Are they onto something? Since the GFS, ECM, CMC, and their ensembles are in pretty good agreement as of 0z/6z, I'm going to speculate that the mesos are at the ends of their range and their convection allowing and hi-res qualities are yielding an unlikely result... We'll see.

Any freezing rain?

No wonder the RRFS has it going south when it wants to juice up the suppression so much leading into things.

Agreed, if we must have a slop fest, I don’t mind them as much when we actually get the 1 or two inches of snow before the mix to sleet/freezing rain. The look of snow on the ground plus the building layer of ice makes the scenery much better. This storm looks to change over to mostly sleet in the LSV, so we can hopefully measure & pad stats too.

Say it with your chest, Delkus! https://x.com/i/status/2003621611120001120

Then it must be right.

Here now. It was great, now it’s tracked lol.

One interesting thing I noticed in my forecast from CTP - hardly any mention of sleet. It's snow, then snow/freezing rain, followed by freezing rain possibly mixed with snow and sleet at times.

For some comparative statistics, New York City has been warming only slightly faster than New York State overall (0.9° per decade vs. 0.8° per decade) since 1980. That suggests that the overall share of the recent warming is due to broader changes in climate rather than the City's heat island effect. In any case, the frequency of above freezing low temperatures and above 40° low temperatures during winter precipitation events has been increasing. This applies to New York City and other nearby areas e.g., Newark. This could result in an increased frequency where light precipitation events could wind up having more rain than snow relative to earlier in the climate period. However, any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC.

FV3 shows that rates can overcome upper level warmth.

12z 12km NAM has no snow for many but a pure sleet-fest. Impressive with temps in the mid-20s .

Still looks good but that’s a pretty thin swath of 3-6” or maybe it’s the unique orientation that’s throwing me off

I remember that Ice storm in 82. What I remember about it is me and my dad had to go get my grandmother at her work, which was downtown at the city County building. I remember sitting on the overpass where 275 goes east on 40 and we sat there for what seemed like forever. However, we got my GM, got her home and we got home safe. Maybe the weather conditions got worse after we got home but at that time, only bridges and overpasses were iced up. .

Actually across the bridge in Topsham. Added another inch+, high ratio feathers. Some decent echoes overhead but leaving, should pass 7". Getting a breeze, temp still upper teens. Loving it when friends getting jacked, especially when we have a decent amount here.

That's pretty wild. Let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance shows.

Yeah, surprised to see your report. Taint got 'stronger' as you headed closer to the ocean. Either way, looks nice.

It’s similar to the rrfs

+5 temps: no snow -5 temps: no snow Atlantic blocking: no snow Favorable PAC: no snow Arctic fronts: no snow Inverted troughs: no snow Clippers: no snow Coastals: no snow Benchmark track: no snow Redevelopers: no snow Antecedent cold: no snow SWFEs: no snow Christmas: no snow New Year's: no snow Peak climo: no snow Late March when everyone is ready for spring: a few inches that melt by noon every other day.

That’s crazy that you’ve only got about 2.5”. Google maps says I’m 6.25 miles in a straight line to the center of downtown Portsmouth. That’s a steep gradient!

The 6z RRFS nailed Baltimore with a minor event for Philly and nothing northeast of Trenton. It's presumably unreliable towards the end of its range. I've noticed it sometimes clusters with the NAM and WRF family.

FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.