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3k nam

Nam for clipper

me trying to follow the 13 snow events happening the next 7 days

Signals for a major warm-up are growing after an early March cold shot.

Howdy! I haven't posted in AMWX since late SEP 2014, a full 9+ years before I retired from the NWS (NWSFO ALB 1992-1994, WFO MLB 1994-2023). A friend sent me the link to the part 1 thread for the HECS in the Mid Atlantic forum for its quality memework. I peeped subsquent threads, and it was a fun follow. Congrats to all who scored big time with this one! Now that I've retired to my original home stomping ground of upstate eastern NY as of June 2025, I figured I'd dust off this account and start posting now and again. Quite a big change from the past, as pretty much all my prior posting was in the tropical forums/threads. Ironically, I was rewarded for moving with one of the worst winters locals can remember, in terms of both cold and snow, dating back to my first 31 years upstate - some have mentioned 77-78. I didn't follow winter storms all that much during my 30+ years down in ECFL. So far this winter, at my home in West Milton (western Saratoga County), I've received 56.2". Not bad for my first winter back. I look forward to re-kindling some online interactions on here!

I have checked full day calendar day 23rd climate reports and with one very minor exception the somewhat debatable numbers are confirmed. Annoyingly, EWR added 0.1" to their total. But NYC remains 19.7" despite potential for 1-2" additional after the early 1 p.m. report. I don't yet have any explanation for EWR showing up as 27.1" in PNS when their two daily amounts are 8.1 and 17.1 (previously 17.0). I will edit the table for those miniscule differentials for EWR. Doubt that it makes much difference to any rankings. Earlier in the process, I had hudsonvalley21 slightly ahead of MJ0812 because of the higher EWR estimate. There were other changes after that, at some higher value than 27" hudsonvalley21 would have a lower total squared error being a bit closer to any high value. That's why that part changed. I am going to check the CF6 data which is usually published around 5 a.m. for NYC area stations, to see if anything changes there -- the CF6 document was stated to be the ultimate guide to scoring this contest. Will either edit in a "no changes found" or tell you what changes I find.

Daily climate reports are out now, no changes in earlier (in some cases questioned) totals except that annoyingly EWR is up by 0.1" (17.1" 23rd now for 25.2" storm). This means several minutes of needless work over in the contest thread. I don't know what to say about NYC staying at 19.7" unless it's some voodoo logic like we cleared the board at 4 p.m., measured, and then by 7 p.m. there was nothing on the board that we could see from a distance. Any kind of logic would tell you the earlier 10.9 daily (+8.8 22nd) should be raised towards 12" and a 20.8" storm total. But whatever, it is what it is (not).

17.1 per climate daily report. Most have added 0.2 after 7pm. 60.4 on the season to date.

BOS shows as 17.1" in daily climate summary just out.

Even when I say I'm sick of winter and ready for warmer weather, the minute that late March/early April threat comes around I'm watching the models and cheering on snow just like in the middle of winter.

I should also add that the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.

Early March was my last window.

Euro indicating some leaning towards east based, but not obnoxiously so. However, that time frame is for June/July/August and things would likely evolve from that point on (either becoming more east based or migrating more towards a Modoki). Of course, the Euro could be completely off from this juncture.

Now that was a blizzard for the Hampton Roads.

Jan 3, 2018 was 949 MB

Tight gradient in western Suffolk. Babylon got 28-30”. I’m confident Commack was 24” range based on reports from Nws, friends, family. Those snow bands hugged the LIE and maybe 2 miles north of there.

You said early February lol

I still cant believe i won. Thanks everyone.

Argh. Can’t be 17” that I missed here vs 24” you missed there. I’ll take the conservative I guess.

That would take it to another level. I am running out of places to put snow. Mega piles

Bye-Bye peaches and stone fruit in NE.

First half of March will be cold and snowy Unfortunately every model has a big warmup towards the middle and ends winter.

wow!

this is insane for March