All Activity

Yes, but sharp cold shots are still possible. Below normal months can also occur.

A few showers are possible tonight. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mild days. Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A weak cold front could cross the region Wednesday, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.583 today.

Low freezing levels and convection. Many are seeing some graupel make it to the sfc.

There is a really strong timelag between Stratosphere warming and -NAO at different times of the year: Nov 1-15: +45 days Nov 15-30: +40 days Dec 1-15: +35 days Dec 15-30: +30 days Jan 1-15: +25 days Jan 15-30: +25 days Feb 1-28: +20 days March 1-31: +15 days Cold Stratosphere has a +0-day timelag to corresponding +NAO at all times of the cold season.

Maxed out well SW of you. Settle down.

It’s a different year..get ready.

And now lightning and thunder . Every front since early summer maxes out here . Insane

Where in Melville do you live? I grew up there as well, New York Ave and Old country road. Never saw deer there. We had a turkey in Commack on my lawn a few years ago. Was funny, right before thanksgiving

Currently live in Melville and this time of the year we see them everyday. Daytime too. Yesterday even had wild turkeys-first time I’ve seen them

That's funny as hell !!!!

That’s wild. Was absolutely never a thing when I was growing up here. The only deer then were on the barrier islands and way out east. Nothing in western Suffolk or Nassau

The mean gets down to a mere +10, which compares to +14-15 on the prior run and +18 on several runs before that! I estimate 35-40 % of members with a very early season major SSW (10 mb wind reversal), by far the highest yet! Here’s a 3 run animation showing the weaker SPV trend: The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak was 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak. The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958. So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW meaning we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years. Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US? -12/29/2001: no notable cold -12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later -12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later -12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later -12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later -11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later -12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later -11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases.

Trade: Titans are sending edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones to the Ravens for a conditional 5th-round pick, per sources. 4.5 sacks in 4 games definitely a good pick up for ravens!!!!

Small hail here now. Or graupel?

Well it was definitely pretty large ice pellets. I didn't see any lightning or hear thunder and really didn't look at radar closely so I wasn't sure but now that I see Alex had a thunderstorm it was definitely convective

They are everywhere. I've already seen one accident in Muttontown on 25A, deer hit passenger side fender of an SUV. I stay in left lane to avoid any potential deer jumping into right lane from yards, etc.

Just missed hitting a full grown buck around the corner from my house. The southern area of Commack has deer, my first time seeing one though. Will have to adjust for looking out for deer at night now. What a pain in the ass!

First mention of flakes for the winter on Weather Underground! 11/10 High of 37 Low 23 with Rain/Snow

November 2024 was moderate strong and 2023 was stronger.

Relatively strong line of storms moving through the Pioneer valley. Thunder

we thinking first freeze in the cities?

Yeah - lightning in Litchfield County, CT... Was not expecting that... (Nobody expects the... oh well, nvm)

We had 6” in October and closing in on 1” in the first 3 days of November… good drought buster

I’ll stop wishing when the well fully refills immediately after a load of laundry.

Good! Hopefully you'll stop wishing for rain.