All Activity

Conclusions Concerning the Extra Tropical Pacific It will be the volatility of the northern Pacific that will dictate the mercurial nature of winter 2026-2027, and an unprecedentedly powerful El Niño will be the primary catalyst. The barrage of immense WWBs responsible for the extreme magnitude of El Niño will also ensure that winter is mild in the mean due to the initial eastern orientation of the warm ENSO event. Ironically enough, it is these same WWBs that will also preclude winter 2026-2027 from being as warm as many within weather circles who have been conditioned by climate change may think, as it will also act to reduce the heavy MC flavor that we have become so accustomed to in modern versions of El Niño. There are no "silver bullets" with respect to seasonal forecasting, but perhaps the closest notion is the ability to hone in on the most anomalous pattern driver and simply follow its' lead. In case it hasn't been mentioned, El Niño is about to set the record for just about every measurement used to assess its' intensity, and the 4.1C anomaly measured in region 1.2 the weeks of July 29th and August 5th are the greatest ever recorded within any ENSO region. Excuse this forecaster for not being surprised that the winter 2026-2027 Extra tropical Pacific composite just so happens to be a carbon copy of the ENSO region 1.2 correlation with the winter pattern. In closing, forecast symmetry for winter 2026-2027 continues to strengthen with he addition of the extra tropical Pacific to the consensus. Polar Analog Composite, Solar Analog Composite QBO Analog Composite, Extra Tropical Pacific Composite Intense El Niño Composite, East-Based El Niño Composite:

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite: The mean DJFM AO value of the polar composite near neutral and barely positive, at .09, and the NAO is moderately positive at .49, with high latitude blocking heavily weighted towards February and March, all of which represent a reasonable preliminary seasonal forecast for winter 2026-2027.

0.06" from a batch of shwrs that moved through last night. Looks like a nice Fall day with highs around 70 on a light SW wind.

love when the miss south/little or nothing hits like this^

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks. The MJO is heading toward favorable phases for TCG at this time of year, which Joe Bastardi has been appropriately emphasizing in his call for activity:

Yeah, the CAMs struggled to figure out where the storms would fire. The RRFS was by far the worst. Up until bedtime it had southeast Iowa getting hit. I was hoping I wouldn't get missed south, but instead most of it went north. I caught the southern edge of the band and finished with a solid 1.06". There were some nice boomers, too.

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks.

Water is falling from the sky at nice heavty rate!

I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

I was thinking similar to 2015 as far as residual MC influence when I did my early polar and Pacific work this summer in an effort to start conservative and err on the side of caution, but I am starting to lean less than that now.

classic

Keep coming here more often.

This makes sense, though, if you consider that the N hemisphere was not at all redolent of El Nino throughout the summer, likely due in large part to the antecedent state of the extra tropical Pacific. If that were to begin to change, this is what it would look like. I think October will be the month that will really be telling, which I know you have posted data to the same effect.

It's not an either or? We do not 'replace' the perils of Climate Change with an overarching risk of AI evolving without restraint - these two are in tandem, mutually exclusive aspects. Heh, if we want to be quantitatively on point it is more sufficed to say the combination of that tandem just increases the odds of calamity. There's this idea of the "Doomsday Clock". The idea is 'how close' is humanity to inducing global catastrophe, originated out of 'The Bulletin of Atomic Physicists'. It's not replacing in their assessment, either. The threat catastrophe can be a cocktail of causalities. Climate Change and AI are among them. So it may have just been clumsy word choice there but you'd be surprised how many people will actually drop one in lieu of the other and base their energy there as the proper response to scaling urgency. When the truth is ... we could be fucked for both reasons independently. The other thing... I'm speaking in terms of perils and risks... 'Extinction'? Mm, that's a bit heavy - again, it may just be word choice in the moment; I assume you know that extinction is absolute. I would lean more so on population correction. Whether we choose to be in control of that reduction or not it is likely to occur. And not just among our species, but global biology - this latter aspect is already underway. We could philosophically argue that it is beginning in humanity, with the crashing birthing rates among developed worlds. The crime in it all is that the other species we share this world with never had a say in the matter. Snarky digression: Ancient scriptures seem to lean like humanity has some intrinsic rights over this world bestowed upon them that places them as having both import and entitlement above all others. That smacks like a means to explain away this iniquity. Meanwhile, the logic cracks with the god idea when objectively such an infinitely powerful all good agency cannot simultaneously exist, while also allowing the crime iniquity to happen ... That means they or it are or is either not infinitely powerful, or, not infinity good. Which then means, they or it cannot be a "god". Heh...I just walk away from the dogma. Yes, an all-out extinction is non-zero probability; however, it is still low probability. Firstly, it would be hard to completely extinguish 8.5 billion - the number is so large that there's as to increase the probability that small enclaves and/or regions well-managed for resources, perhaps circumstance exclusionary for geographic isolation disconnected from the Industrial reliance. An acceptance and perhaps of better definition, adaptive, probably persist in a worse case scenario. As an aside, the semantics is bothersome with me regarding AI. All walks and dimensions of society, from social media to television, movies and literature, to the chit chat before board meetings get under way, to the water coolers, the bus stops outside the office and back, everyone everywhere keeps referring to AI as being a threat. AI is not a threat. The human beings that are engineering it are the threat. There's something of an oddity when AI execs "warn" of singularity this, and self-determination conscious emergence in these systems ( which I personally believe they are full of shit on that specific aspect - extremely complex discussion content that even ponders the spiritual ) - it almost seems like they are trying to divert attention to the fact that they are promoting and work internally to fucking make that happen, but getting the Idiocracy distracted by the specter of it all. OR, they are full of shit and just propagandizing the whole of it because they want to position them selves capitalistically. I don't know, but there's logical flaws everywhere. While I also don't downplay the usefulness of it, at all. It is a powerful tool. Proven so. I've personally worked with "Claude" and found it to be a synergistic experience as it assists in creative problem solving...etc. This is also coming from the ambit of Mathematics and advancing physics, et al.. So it is real. But at the end of the day, if AI does become that threat, then the people that current advertising it yet still engaging, are darkly culpable.

Seems like everything is a stalled front or just pop up randomness these days. Is it a result of generally more moisture in the air? Not sure how to describe it but we don't get the light-moderate, large precip shield type systems anymore. Also feel this is why forecasts have a difficult time pinpointing the winners and losers.

I think he needs to do a better job of emphasizing that a full reversal is less likely than a stretch and/or reflection event, as he completely neglects the solar and QBO aspects, which are pretty hostile. I could see something like the scenario he laid out from January 2016 (I used this season as a strong polar analog), but I don't think a full reversal is as likely as he seems to intimate.

Yeah, we could see a subtropical or tropical system eventually form next 2 weeks somewhere to our south. Not what the waterlogged parts of the region want to hear. Even if we don’t get a well defined system, the high moisture could lead to heavy downpours with weak lows and stalled fronts.

In Memphis for work, already 76 degrees, feels like 80, with a forecasted high of 98 feeling like 105. Ready to get back home.

This time of the year with a HP in southeast Canada and warm waters in the central Atlantic favors home grown Tropical Storms development with the possibility of a storm tracking towards the east coast and possibly Gulf of Mexico. Add to that the MJO tracking through phases 8-2-1.

Low of 67. Brief bouts of the muggies to get through today and Sunday before things turn Fall-like next week. Looks like a nice little storm line on the approach here this morning, curious to see if it arrives with much punch. Onward.

September 500mb ridge axis continues to be much further south and stronger than past developing super El Niño events. This has lead to the record warmth across the CONUS this month. At the least the trough near the West Coast matches with the other years. But it’s a weaker area of low pressure than 1997.

The models showing the heaviest rains along and south of I-80 were wrong. Only picked up 0.25" here. QC had a few rain drops.

Uh oh....Larry is aroused