All Activity

Mmmm, gyros.

.55 for the event. Should about do it . Kind of a stein but after wet summer that’s ok

I'm getting stron Joaquin vibes from this one. Except Joaquin was strong when passing through the Bahamas, but then it stalled as it passed through Bahamas and then kicked out to see, but it's moisture flooded the Carolinas big time. With Humberto nearby, I think that would act as a mechanism to tug Imelda out to sea. However, with Joaquin, there was a trough heading through the east US and Joaquin stalled over Bahamas which allowed trough to arrive in time to bring it out to sea.

Way too early

The visualization with the moving dots is fantastic.

i am just shy of an inch here, and with what looks to be some decent precip on radar. radar trajectory looks like you will get the goods eventually. i'd be surprised if either of you ended up with <1.5"

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

lock it in.

doesnt eastern IO forcing have the highest correlation to +WPO?

Stein gone for all. Webbed hands slowly releasing and hanging down. Like the Alien arm at the end of War of the Worlds.

Half inch up here so far. Just a nice soaking rain.

Hammering home the point that—for anyone lurking—even with the trend from the Euro and GFS, there is still a **high** amount of uncertainty on eventual track and intensity. Nothing is locked in yet.

But wouldn’t a further W track of Humberto mean a slower latitude gain, which would then mean a higher chance for 94L to get N of Humberto’s latitude and would thus reduce the chance for 94L to get pulled OTS by Humberto? I hope not but am wondering.

NHC at 2pm: Disturbance 1: 90% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025... Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days. While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Found Google ai tropical cyclone models page, with plots and interactive for anyone interested. Make sure you click the menu menu button top left to turn on or off more settings pots etc. https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

In an area that needs it the least. Last thing we need these days is a Helene redux.

1.34" planted grass seed on a hill. Never fails

For comparison, 6z and 12z for humberto Not going lie, there is deft looks like less of a curve towards Bermuda. If anything further west before it turns.

I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. As you can see below, a lot of aircraft assets are being ramped up and the G-IV high altitude surveillance flights will be valuable for the upper air pattern conditions. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025 TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42 A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76 A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. 3. REMARKS: A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z. B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL

Both the 12z Euro and GFS op show some decent jet dynamics inland of the landfall for 94L across the Carolinas. Would support a legit flooding threat down there.

At the very least snowman has some substance behind his messages. qg_omega is just a troll.

Gefs, 6z versus 12z

2.04 on the day. over 3” since yesterday