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nobody is, not even bluewave. it's just that anthonymm guy

Saw that . Euro typically goes low with forecast snowfall for our area so, if it's onto a projected Pattern and right,may be a decent Winter .

Not a chance.

86F. This one torched MVL. 85F BML too. Leaf drop and bone dry. Given the NNE normals… continues the summer theme of highest departures up north.

Looking at the ENSO thread and they're announcing last rites for us and NYC.

Yeah true. Forgot about that oddity.

Any snow yet in NNE? Climo for first snowfall must be soon for many up there

Highs

we used to drive out to montauk back in the day, 40 years ago. had a lot more energy back then.

Parts of the region again saw 80° or above heat, with additional records falling in New England. Highs included: Albany: 82° Bangor: 84° (tied record set in 1946) Boston: 84° Burlington: 84° (old record: 82°, 1946 and 1990) Caribou: 83° (old record: 74°, 1946) ***New October record*** Concord: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1990) Hartford: 84° Manchester: 86° (old record: 82°, 2007) Millinocket: 85° (old record: 82°, 1946) New York City-Central Park: 80° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 82° Plattsburgh: 82° (old record: 80°, 2005) Poughkeepsie: 84° Portland: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1947) Providence: 81° White Plains: 80° Tomorrow will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will also turn windy. A strong cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season. A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. It could bring some showers and gusty rain to parts of the region, but suppression south and east of the area remains a plausible scenario. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +8.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.007 today.

It’s definitely open to the public. Yes it’s a long drive from NJ…

Your welcome. I saved the weekend

My daughter would enjoy that. Her roommate has never seen snow.

Each AI run has been significantly south and east of the one before it. Although it still gets us wet I think it ends up looking like the other models now do. WX/PT

I think snowfall will probably be a bit above normal. I think temperatures will be below normal for 2 months. WX/PT

Exactly in the way you described.

FWIW.. for fun mostly lol. Here's the euro seasonal snowfall forecast for this coming winter ... I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this but still fun to look at.

Nice moon tonight. Pics a little blurry, but its my phone so...

Take with a grain of salt, but the GFS has been rather insistent on a strong front arriving around the 20th to 21st. Our first freezing temperatures are near those dates climo wise.

Thank you! Yea we’ll make the best of it regardless but sure wouldn’t mind 70 and sunny lol

Falling for clowns early.

not sure the power station ramp, at soundview, is open to the public. i tried to call around, but got nowhere. problem is there is also no easy way to even drive to long island...it's like there's this big bottleneck called nyc in the way.....i've driven to city island and new rochelle on the other shore to fish the boats there, but a 45 min ride at 5 am turns into a 3 hour ride at 4 pm. my son interned in the bronx zoo in grad school and told me there is just no easy way around this.

everything i've seen says expect below normal....

thanks very much for that. we did hit the jersey shore sunday and well, it wasn't good. a dozen black sea bass and 4 porgies; all but two of the fish would have been shorts in new york waters. but it was only a two hour ride as opposed to 3.....the full moon does not help fishing; in 40 years i've never done well in either a full or new moon. we went because the weather was just too good to ignore, however there were still a lot of swells out there, and they built up with tide change; enough that you could not see a nearby boat when one came up. motion sickness alert....wind changed at the end of the day, blowing in massive plumes of red water.....i don't know if this was from the offshore storms or was plankton...never saw it before.

At least some folks will get snow.