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It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Finally getting a few random flakes here at 4650 on Beech. HRRR does not look promising to say the least.

In the long run you’re a lot better off living where you do.

I’m sad lol. Least I’ll be at work and maybe see a little something in Jefferson county WV

Everything appears to be a bit North of what guidance had been indicating. SEKY across Wise County should do decent Snow wise.

The sad part is that one inch of snow on a week day cripples this area.

Yeah this will accumulate efficiently on roads, especially side roads.

Moon rising through the trees IMBY

Take

Man that would wreck that morning commute. Cold powder falling at sunrise on cold roads after several days of temps below normal.

@SnowenOutThere 0z nam 3k soundings look much better for dendrite production. I just looked at DC, but a nice wide DGZ with moderate lift for several hours tomorrow morning. This is 12z for DC.

Almost a quarter inch QPF in DC. Even lopping off a third for, well, NAM, that still gets you in the 1-2” territory. Looking good.

Sign me up for that shit right there

You’re telling me

Looks like about 1 to 2 from EZF north...3 down there and like 2" up to the DC metro and an inch to the Federick County southern border I mean, yeah, relative to yesterday's runs, I'd buy and not look back

0.2" QPF makes it up to DC, but kuchera advertises 15:1 ratios, so be aware this is likely too high

DC went from 0 to maybe 3 inches of snow

@40/70 Benchmark, @tavwtby check your PM for form links.

24 hours makes a big difference!

I’ll sign up for the 3k right now

Poor COC was all confused .

00z NAM would imply the biggest December in DC this decade?

If you went to Danville I think you would have been disappointed. I lived there for 4 years and they tend to bust low with these type of storms. I think they get an inch maybe 2 max and end up mixing or turning over.

relative to the expected storm totals is probably what i should've prefaced

Let's not get too carried away here