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EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?

Ive been wondering where Richmond goes. It doesnt seem to fut into the SE group and this forum ignores it as well. "Central VA" typically includes Richmond but you wouldn't know from maps that ignore it.

I’m not expecting much to happen Monday think most of it is over by Sunday night

00z EPS-Ai are pure nudity.

I’m assuming we’ll see winter storm watches posted by Friday evening?

Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm.

Its the slowest at arrival of precip. Looking at mby and the microclimate...the GEM has the most realistic temp response for what its worth...with way the temp advances off the Skyway.

Euro was almost identical to 18z, the heart of the CAD actually was a touch stronger and several locations ran about 1 degree colder through most of the precip. In MBY (Hickory) we stayed below freezing for 99% of the storm and zr totals were 1.71" and the FRAM est was 1.10".

drier than the others around here

Euro huge dryslot after initial thump which mitigates hours of junk

Updated

Euro looks like it wants to finally override that CAD. Looks like SN/Slop to Slop to Rn.

It would be interesting if DCA outdid PHL, NYC, and BOS in terms of snowfall due to a stronger and longer initial overrunning. I doubt it mostly because of likely better ratios up north and possibly some tack-on snow at the end. But I guess it's possible.

Once again 10-15”

Euro total QPF storm

Yep, and look at the catastrophic ice progs in the South. My goodness.

South Va and probably much of NC. So much damned ICE. South central TX is also going to get some ZR and sleet, along with freezing weather. Sun night we might hit 10 degrees without the wind. This system is going to be one frigid slippery dangerous killer beast. I hope not but there are likely to be pileups all over the ice areas.

25-40% sleet

Very similar to 12z run at H5 and surface Doesn't quite develop and capture coastal like 0z ICON, but still would deliver 10-20" all of SNE assuming better than 10:1

Hopefully no one has to use this chart, but just in case anyone ever needs it. Was designed for risk assessment to power infrastructure

Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory.

Are the mid levels that cooked to get that much freezing rain rather than sleet? Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk