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That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

93-94 great. 94-95 suck. 95-95 great. T N at I know.

This is a typical La Nina look actually. Dumps west then moves East or thats the idea. Still a lot to iron out though but Iike things heading into December.

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me.

I've seen some comments downplaying the HRRR. 18z vsn nearly identical to the 12z. I think we have to think confluence zone enhancement-band. I see BGM NWS just issued an inch higher terrain. I wont say what will happen but I dont even think our NWS offices will know at 3AM tomorrow when final day products are issued, since very few ground truth reports at 2-3A. The radar should be telling. Maybe I'll be wrong but I doubt if the HRRR is going to miss by more than inch or at worst 2. It should be slippery as outlined in the mid morning post. Pretty good %H Vort advection toward morning in EPA with decent 8H FGEN and lift in sw flow aloft. A warm frontal wave. It's over before you can say 9AM.

And now the eps agrees also. Flip to cold in the mid to long range.

Yeah its becoming a thing now on the internet and social media. Throwing out 16-24" like candy is essentially saying it snowed 1"/hr for 24 hours straight and while it does happen sometimes, there should be people drowning in snow at those amounts. I mean 40" in 48 hours... I've measured that once here and if you get an honest 40" in 48 hours it is on a level that few can comprehend. It is almost paralyzing. It is not something that just gets tossed out there as a guess. Like cars should be completely gone in the parking lot at a 30-40" storm. And you are right, it is definitely the numbers that get people. Everyone knows it's the most snow, but the number of people who I see posting online that have hit some variety of Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay this November... most are saying the amounts seem pretty similar. I'd give Jay about 30% more just based on upslope climo as it moves north. Just like the BV to Smuggs stretch usually sees about 30% more than Sugarbush/MRG. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Bolton was sporting some of the most either given their location and high base elevation like Jay's.

I’m not sure on that?

can see heights rising out west at the end as well as the Atlantic pattern becoming blockier

Don't know how to post pics on here from my phone. Tried last Tuesday with the snow we had.

Correction its graupel

If the MJO enters 8 at that amplitude it should be there for a while, and should crawl on through the left side into January.

Ehhhhhh I have sleet falling 44F

Nice, post some pics if you get some coverage!

And then after that, I'm trying to figure out when/if the operational runs start unleashing the goods. With that massive -WPO relay into a -D(EPO) going on at the end of next week, so far it's just a castrated gorilla cold wave ... Yeah, I've been cautioning folks that we may not have to wait until the 2nd week of Dec for something wintry to break in our favor given the modalities from about bird day+ We've benefited ( though the actual daily anomalies may only vaguely show - ) from a -NAO pulsation in the foreground and will continue to do so, then relay that index' collapse into the NE Pac changes. That's not quite the same circumstance as going from a neutral field to a -EPO. This latter tends send the southerly gale up the coast but we're idiosyncratically different when there's antecedent west limbed -NAO.

Got a text alert from EPAWA about an hour ago for my area. He said snow moving in between 1-3am ending after 8am.. C-1"" with up to 2" above 1,500'

the euro is pretty rough

Mix of snow/sleet/graupel here in Lebanon .

The 500mb pattern shown in Roundys post actually looks quite favorable for New England. -EPO/-NAO/-PNA with an SE ridge that does not link up with the block. It’s also worth noting that the -NAO here is more east based than south based like the past few years.

Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so.

Euro is now cold in the long range. Big change.

~Dec 14-16th is my hope for a change to cold domination in most of the E US based on the MJO being progged to then get into 8 and allowing ~2.5 weeks following an SSWE to start a cold dominated pattern in the E US. In the meantime, the weekend after Thanksgiving giving has cooled a lot and looks a bit chilly as of now vs having looked mild just 3 days ago.

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

Black Friday will be a volatile forecast for the next week. Could be wintry or we could do the dew.

12z Euro seems to try and tee something up for the mountain folks Thanksgiving weekend?