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Agreed. Even 2-3 weeks later, a carbon copy of this system will give most of us some snow down to the bay.

I saw it, Thats why i had the comment.

Euro and Euro AI are slightly south and east. Gfs is alone.

Gfs is alone Euro is also now slightly south and east

We always here in Middle Tn get hosed by inverted troughs,still remember when we had a Winter Storm Warning that was right before the snow dome talk came in,was suppose to get 3-5" and the models missed the inverted trough and we just got rain instead,because it missed the warm nose

GFS and Euro at polar opposites.

Now it is. Wont be in 6 weeks. I dont hate a HP off of the NE when the ocean is 38 degrees. Out here at least.

Not sure because his response was to the 18z icon which doesn't show that at all. Now the gfs is another story

Euro was pretty bad last year if we are being honest. This will be the first time this season we get to do some model comparisons. My WAG is we get a small thump to slop. More North and west obviously. When all else fails just go with climo.

Euro AI is even flatter

A fundamental problem that has been pretty persistent on all model simulations is HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow chances for lower elevations/coastal plain at our latitude esp in early Dec. Places well inland and further north should see some frozen initially depending on the amplitude of the shortwave trough and exact track of the surface low.

By "Old School" do you mean 8 months ago?

Yes, even a half inch should accomplish that.

It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours

Close to a inch when I left.. in Rindge now to meet a couple other people for our show we're going to tonight and just a dusting here.. I think we got that thin band perfect

Lmao. So Detroit has an advisory for 5-7", Ann Arbor has a warning for 5-8", and Toledo has a warning for up to 6". Im sure the general public knows the difference

Yeah, I'd hold off on using it for at least another couple days if at all, I'm sure its going to get quite entertaining going forward.

Had a trace of snow this afternoon. This is the 2nd trace this season.

there appears to be assimilation bias in the gfs

NAM starts to be helpful around 24 hours out* *tongue firmly in cheek

What?

NAM synoptics at 84hr can be creative

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction. When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative.

12Z EPS held into the cold partially because of this:

Hey, we got a white Christmas out of it, snow on Christmas Eve, and subzero lows two days before Christmas. If that's what it takes, encourage him to do the same this year.