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Sadly, the trend today in models has been to dry it out for most of the area, with the precip focused further east. We'll get a little rain it appears, which is better than nothing, but still disappointing given the potential.

We are so back!

Interesting look.... FWIW. Something to maybe watch 10 days out...

What is even wilder, a lot of higher elevation folks are already on the board. I am even on the board w/ 0.5" of snow already, and w/ a NW flow event to boot!

The mean doesn't have dump into Texas. In fact, it might have the trough too far to the East. Right now(and I know you know this...but this is for new folks), it is so tough to know the trough axis at this range - IDK at this point. Some modeling is just sending the cold straight to Texas. Some tends to send into the SE or NE and the MA. I would suggest the MJO is driving that along w/ the SSW. If that MJO stalls, we all will probably be just wanting it to warm-up. In my mind, I see a cold shot after Thanksgiving, a warm-up, another cold shot around the 3rd which means business....and the cold keeps on coming until about Christmas when the pattern moderates. The danger is that some modeling does not want to moderate after Christmas. There is a small camp of model runs which deepens the cold to enter January. In fact, seasonal cold is the warmest those runs get w/ well BN being the base pattern. Now, I hate even to mention that on a forum. If it doesn't happen, the disappointment is tough for some....and that hasn't happened since maybe 09-10 But it is worth noting. Those runs aren't quite outliers either. The MJO above would support some of those runs. The interesting thing is if the MJO were to loop back into the cold phases w/ no tour through the warm phases...we haven't seen that type of plot recently. Plus, there is the rare tour-de-warm MJO that never gets warm. This is IMHO is class -QBO territory in terms of analogs.

The Chinook is absolutely correct. The write up is as follows: "A downslope chinook wind event pushed the temperature at the town of Loma from -54°F at 9 am on January 14, 1972, to 49°F by 8 am on January 15th. The 103°F (57.2°C) rise is the greatest change in temperature ever officially measured on earth within a 24-hour period." Can you imagine? According to AI , the Lancaster daily range record is 57 degrees set on December 23, 2022.

Precip is AN on the mean and all over the place on the control. The control implies good precip for western areas of the forum(remember the boundary) and then again for coastal areas from Georgia to the MA late in December. E TN and W NC would be BN for precip if the control is correct. If the mean is correct, the entire forum is BN w/ temps and AN for precip. I think the cold is under modeled at this point - I didn't think that a few days ago and my mind can change on that again. If it is, the storm track is along the spine of the Apps.

I always hated to see a Trough dig deep into the SW. Without blocking that generally pumps the SER. With blocking you can get overunning or Waves eject Eastward that pay dividend's. However, with a -EPO you can sometimes get cold highs drop down east of that SW trough and get cold but, usually dry. The above Depictions Carver posted are showing good progression. Somewhat of a SER can be good for our Area as Carvers noted. Waves ride along that Boundary. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth.

For now(and famous last words as we have been fooled many times over the years by December cold on modeling which didn't verify in reality), there is a decent signal for a cold December. Will it be stormy? Well, we honestly maybe don't want the severity of cold shown, but the opportunity for NW flow events and for Gulf systems to attack the base of the trough are probably embedded in a pattern like that.

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Snowmap looks great for the east.

Here is the Euro Weeklies 30 day map centered on December(the above is Dec3-Jan4). This one is Dec1-Dec31. I have also included the CFSv2 which ran at lunch. Where that EPO ridge sets up in the eastern Pac is important. HL blocking near Greenland is not as important in December as it is in Jan/Feb. But it would only accentuate potential for cold. As John noted, the real risk is cold/dry. The good thing is that models are showing some AN heights over FL. That would imply that rain/snow would run a path from say TX/LA to DC. Storm tracks could be the Ohio Valley if the pattern relaxes or the Piedmont if the cold presses. edit: the slight area of an heights over the Gulf states is not a bad thing. Overall, temps in our area are seasonable BN. The storm track will likely ride that boundary. I suspect(if the mean is correct), MUCH colder temps would head southward. That EPO ridge is nearly perfect for sever cold outbreaks.

He said he’s never interacting with you again on here

I believe last week we were discussing the lack of beneficial rain. My fear for this winter is us turning into a cold desert. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I have like the Euro control of the weeklies. Meaning that if the ensemble and the control don't match, that is a problem as the control is often right. It spotted the push back on the colder temps for early December. It wasn't completely right, but there was a warm front embedded that the ensemble didn't see. This is this afternoons December map. I don't use these maps verbatim, but just to get a general sense of what is on the table if the 0z Euro was run past 16 days and all the way to Jan 4th! The ensemble shows this general depiction but MUCH more washed out - seasonably cold. It is also important to remember that seasonal cold at range...is probably colder in reality. -15F departures (relative to norms) is insane for a 30 day map. edit: To me, that is showing signs of the stratospheric warming as the latter part of that run is brutally cold in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. We see that often w/ strat warms. Cold dumps west and spreads east. The last week of this run is almost 40 BN in the Rockies. Notice those aren't reflected strongly on this map...it had to eras some warm departures in those places.

I meant the affects of the SSW itself..not the other factors as Tip eluded to.

Why not? Other long range models run daily like GEFS. Long range should always be taken with a grain, regardless, due to high levels of forecast uncertainty. But why not run them daily since despite unreliability they can at least hint at potential trend changes past 2 weeks. The EW have been halfway decent imho. For one thing, they had very early hints about the upcoming very weak SPV. For another, they’ve done pretty well with hints about general levels of Atlantic tropical activity weeks out.

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke... pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring! This is a great visual for context, thanks! MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run: Dec 1-7: ~same Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region:

But again ... it's may be splitting hairs. If there's -WPO/-EPO through other means, you're ending up in the same consequence.

That's about right.... it takes about 20 days ( three weeks)... I've shown this before but here. This example was 2004. Text back high altitude intrusion event, then nodal mass down welling with 3 or so week lag prior to AO forcing/'blocking' This example actually first became evident over Xmas week prior to Jan 1 ... and the AO crashed by the 20th.

Now that stations around my area are starting to update for November, some snow totals from them per NOAA co-op station data. Newcomb, which is about 8 miles from me but at lower elevation, 2 inches of snow, Oneida 1.5 inches of snow, Tazewell 1.5 inches of snow. The Southeast KY stations near me haven't reported yet, nor have Norris and Maynardville which are just south of my area. That's fairly impressive for early November.

Mid December I’d think…