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The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

Definitely a 495 look. Which is not a surprise on 12/2.

Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC

We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.

Just an op run but 18z GFS is a much better H5 look for frozen on the 6th for the corridor and points east for early Dec. At the surface- broad area of HP to the north, instead of a High sliding off the NE coast for the Dec 2-3 storm. All subject to change ofc.

Seems more reasonable tbh, track still looks good & I’d be very happy with a widespread 6-8”.

H7is by dendrite. Definitely more SWFE looking aloft.

Pouring

Steelwagon bank blow ups still might make Ray and some other central Eastern and Northern folk happy.

Those were some warning criteria winds today. Several locations well over 55mph multiple times. Cedar Rapids hit 64mph, Iowa City hit 63mph. MLI/DVN hit 57/56mph.

Guessing the cat is the Euro.

Where's Prismshine?

Torchy day. Think some breached 60F.

Neat sky at sunset tonight.

Well Randy u might wanna cross ur fingers bro just in case..... And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol

Lots to sort out. Wave that pushes through around the 1st is key. What does that do to baroclinic zone. 2nd is intensity of the trailing shortwave and how quickly that intensifies. Could still be a sheared out mess or amped up inland. we watch. We baste the turkey. We come back Friday.

Having one now. Bourbon + a little Fireball.

Not bad at all considers is 6 days out

Euro AIFS

Today was a bit warm but the breeze helped. 60 peak now 52

Need to be inland

And 12Z Euro was washed out south. As the models turn

Precip predictions

The "Worlds Most Consistent Model" with a 200 mile jump to the NW. Anyway I love the changes I'm seeing on the 18z suite so far, certainly feeling more optimistic about next week's threat compared to yesterday.