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  2. canderson
    Brb gonna go buy a lottery ticket
  3. canderson
    Holy smokes - some actual rain!
  4. TheDreamTraveler
    Okay nevermind it came back pouring again lol
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members.
  6. TheDreamTraveler
    Finally getting some heavier rain. Okay as I was typing this it just completely stopped LMAO it went from straight pouring to a very light drizzle within seconds. I've never seen that happen so fast before. Basically poured for a few minutes then poof. Nothing.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions.
  11. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP page agrees with an area of 5% TOR
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No idea.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ever had a La Nina this east based?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay.
  17. Today
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based.
  19. SACRUS
    Today's Highs: ACY: 87 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 New Brnswck: 85 JFK: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 83 LGA: 83 TTN: 83 ISP: 82 NYC: 81
  20. mahantango#1
    .04 rain today.
  21. roardog
    I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess.
  22. frd
    Mount Holly more bullish with the heavy rain wording, we shall see. Good luck !
  23. SouthCoastMA
    shut out again, stuck on 0.33" for the month. Really need Monday to pan out
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification.
  25. CoastalWx
    These systems are always difficult to model this time of year.
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though.
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