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I didn’t mean a cold SWFE. But when we’re hanging on to the wedge here near freezing you often mix out in the SE downslope up there. Remember, the primary goes to our west in these and we don’t always get redevelopers south of us.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1990921925745410375 Webb says the tropical troposphere is already El Nino like. I wonder if this is playing into the strengthening trends for the MJO mentioned above.

2020-21 is my only near normal snowfall year. It was good one. Feb ‘24 might be one of my all time favorites. I read through that thread every so often to remind myself that miracles do happen.

Seems that way, at least in the boundary, but it might stay dry. Anything very light would probably be liquid.

Yep and now the gfs brings winter before Dec 1

Lol It keeps on creeping colder.

Yup…then Feb 1st of ‘21 we had a very good one(double digits). Then Feb of ‘24 I got the 13” surprise that was supposed to be 1-2”. That storm saved that winter(ended up with 25” for the season total) from being as bad as 22-23 was(which had 12.5” for the season).

Cold air comes in quicker next week by Turkey day .

Same as black Friday. Cold air comes in quicker.

Turkey day colder on the gfs compared to 18z

I’d call it average. At Baltimore since 1974 during 3+ day long phase 7 periods during Dec (32 of them adding to 185 days), they’ve averaged 0.5 F warmer than normal with the coolest tending to be somewhat weak and warmest tending to be somewhat strong though with much variation. The range during La Niña has been as cold as 11 BN (12/16-20/2010), 7 BN (12/9-10/1995), and 5 BN (12/9-11/2017) to as warm as 13 AN (12/28-31/2024) and 7 AN (12/19-31/2021). Breakdown of these 13 phase 7 periods during La Niña in Dec: 1 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 5A, 1 MA

Gfs has gotten colder for Thanksgiving

December ‘20 was great here. The one of the two 12” events since 2018-19. Of course…just a few weeks later we had King Grinch. That’s what I want to avoid. More than I want a big December snow.

Hi-res RGEM has 6” for much of Northampton County tonight. Would be pretty wild to see that model score a coup. Looks like other models are much more realistic with a C-2” north of I-78.

That’s pretty amazing considering that Brooksville, FL, got down to an incredible 27 on Nov 12th!! Here’s where Brooksville is located, well on down into C FL! To be fair though, elevations are 100-180 feet, quite high for FL.

Phase 7 in DEC is usually a decent phase though??

This storm looked pretty good on paper. Part of the atmospheric river of systems moving through the southwest. It’s even generated rain in Vegas.

Just popped into radar and am surprised at what I see. Will see if it maintains over the mountains. From my experience we usually get it when it comes up from the SW more than directly from the W.

It all ebbs and flows... you get into ruts, or into great runs... up this way, we couldn't open until December last season. This season it is record breaking snow in mid-November. More snow on the ground now than there was during the entire 2015-2016 season in the mountains. The natural variation in weather patterns is pretty crazy year-to-year... and especially over decadal periods.

All through the late 1950s and 60s.

Early returns on 0z snow a shift south and drier for NJ and points east. HRRR, RRFS, NAM, and RGEM show a similar trend. Converging on I-80 with a tenth or two of precip (regionally) in the snow-supporting column. Our "stuff" is still back in WPA. It may blossom into CPA over the next few hours.

Also had some good November and December snows after that time too. November of ‘12, didn’t December of ‘13 have some frigid snows?, November of ‘18, December of ‘19(a real biggy for Ray), December of ‘20(a biggy here)..so we’ve had them.

Or maybe the original 13 colonies.

31°