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Hi Don- Can you do the same chart for Y.T.D. and 12 month rolling? If not too much trouble. I'd love to see what that looks like. Thanks- Mike

There's hints of a cool down for next weekend plus any coastal influence will keep highs down. No definitive fall like cool down yet though

12Z runs regarding the MDR AOI: --GFS/CMC/Icon all have this eventually as a H with GFS/CMC both recurving well E of Bermuda (Icon doesn’t go out far enough to tell) -JMA has this as a TD at 48 and a TS at 72. This is stronger than the two prior 12Z runs that each had it as only a TD. -Waiting for Euro -UKMET again has this as a TS. This is a bit further W than recent runs but it’s still aiming a bit E of Bermuda as of 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.4N 47.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2025 72 16.4N 47.4W 1006 40 0000UTC 18.09.2025 84 17.7N 48.8W 1006 42 1200UTC 18.09.2025 96 19.5N 52.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 19.09.2025 108 20.6N 54.3W 1006 40 1200UTC 19.09.2025 120 22.8N 55.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 57.0W 1005 43 1200UTC 20.09.2025 144 25.1N 57.7W 1003 46 0000UTC 21.09.2025 156 26.3N 58.6W 1001 49 1200UTC 21.09.2025 168 28.3N 59.3W 999 48

Where have you been the last 10+ years

Just 10 days away

Yeah. Nice to feel the dews.

BOS -2.5F ORH -1.6F PVD -3.5F BDL -3.0F A cool month so far Still feels great

It's pretty clear that there will be a tight gradient on the northern side of the precip shield Tuesday-Wednesday. For those of us north of DC, the question is whether we're in the decent amounts.

No reason to weep in my opinion. 6 seasons in the last decade featured above normal snow at MDT. That map above, for at least the Harrisburg area, is massively skewed by the 19-20 & 22-23 total clunkers.

Despite the dry end to August, precipitation is running above normal in parts of the region through the first two weeks of September and much above the amount for last year in all areas. 2025 is September 1-13 precipitation, but none is expected today. While this does not ensure that the month will finish above normal, it is a welcome development.

Too hot

feels like summer today

Let us weep Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yeah the GFS may be overdoing (overdewing?) that, but with the dry ground there won’t be much modification. It’ll still be relegated to the typical cold spots mtns-north, but maybe a little more widespread than just the typical ASOS 32s? Maybe we get HUL in on it.

Nothing above a 30-40% chance of rain the next 10 days. This keeps up along with our talent in wind is going to create ripe conditions for a nasty forest fire Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Cold early September is a classic fake out. We don't truly shake summer off totally these days until like mid October.

My hunch on low off NC is no but it is going to be interesting to watch it's track and see what it delivers to the Mid-Atlantic area in terms of rainfall and wind gusts. As for the MDR region feature I'd say if it happens it will be after 9/17. Things still look less than ideal for development in the MDR. Slower development is the better hedge IMO.

It's not out of the ordinary.

real summery feel outside this morning i cant believe in mid sept we are still having days like this..

They should leave you alone. It’s getting frozen out in another month or two anyway.

Dew the dew next weekend. Likely some frost chances where it can decouple given those afternoon Tds.

I pray it will at least be interesting and throw down a few surprises. Lots of different early casting around the world right now.

Though boring for tracking, I think it’s absolutely fascinating what’s been going on this Sept so far. The last time Sept had no TC this far into the month was way back in 1992! It had its first Sep TC on Sep 17th. If 2025 doesn’t get a TD+ by Sep 17th (going to be close because of many models progging the current E MDR AEW to become a TD near or just after that day; also have to make sure the low off NC doesn’t do the same), then 2025 would have the latest 1st Sep TC since 1939’s Sep 23rd! Any predictions on whether either the current MDR AEW or the low off of NC will reach TD status by Sept 17th?

Upstate SC Spartanburg...Gaffney...Union areas getting very dry as well and people with sinus and headache issues are really feeling the pressure increase

I have to cut the lawn at some point near this thing. Not a fan of hornets. Don't they have people that can remove these without killing them? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk