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Yeah, I've learned a lot from both guys

I think 2/14/07 takes the cake for me. We had 6” in BTV before temps hit 0F.

Holy crap. 6z rgem is like a solid 1-3” for the area Saturday!

The MJO theory is definitely more sound in my eyes than “we can’t phase in the fast flow” theory. I still think that one is likely temporary though much like other flavor of the month theories in the past 2 decades. This winter seems to be bucking the chronic MJO problem of 2022-2025 but yet we still can’t buy a good system.

just based on that, the concept may be more related to placement or displacement of the jet versus the actually speed...though speed probably more of a factor in relation to jet streaks versus the jet as a whole.

Agreed 100%. I think its an interesting theory but needs alot more work. I do recall Tip having posting some studies before

Little interested in Saturday too. I think I'm going to try and get a hang in with @katabaticand hopefully have a wintry day, so it might not matter to me much, but EURO/CMC/ICON have at least some light snow in the area.

fwiw we're lucky to have u both posting, even if joe is somewhat of an acquired taste

That is when it should be come better, as the MJO hits 7.

I think part of it is the behavior of the MJO deconstructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...but agree on over-attribution.

Euro has been fairly consistent on some of us getting a dusting Saturday morning with the upper level energy swinging around

Given some of the signals probably not again until late February at the earliest.

I still think our favorite weekJan 25th - 30th is going to produce finally a big dog. PNA rises slight drop in NAO and EPO stays negative SST comes into olay. So cold precip block ..

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Looks like the Sunday event is our next best shot at light snow in DC metro (ok maybe some snow showers tonight if lucky). Then a cutter-ish/SWFE event Jan 22-24 where we rain or mix, and things should get interesting after that. Who knows, something might sneak up on us within a couple days in that entire time frame. ngl it's been a boring winter so far - at least we didn't torch for that long. My highest high was 60 this January, and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

Now if we can get another arctic impulse to perfectly hit at let's say Sunday at 7pm that would be great.

Yeah you are probably right. Maybe a few dumb ones who are not dormant

Heh. That reminds me of 1/14-15 2004 where we had a synoptic snowfall a few degrees below 0F. Yakutsk dropped in behind it.

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol.

Congrats on the knees! Hopefully recovered in time to snowblow MLK Day

you too, cupcake.

I’m not saying it’s impossible but I think what’s likely to happen is a few ticks west that get us sort of in the game and then closer to game time, she’ll swing right again. What’s changed overnight is the handling of the ridge placement out west. I don’t imagine we keep seeing that trend much longer and I do think it’ll correct closer to its tilted look albeit to a lesser degree that it’s had.

lol

We can relive January 1985?