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Who was saying a coastal storm was going to develop with significant accumulations ? 1-3 some areas 3 or 4 is the max potential for this set up with C -1 in some areas.......C-1 is also possible in most areas - will be a now casting event IMO

Yup. The theme this winter has been that if the gfs isn't buying it's likely a miss.

Plenty of time for wafflng and whiffing. Reelaaaax.

Just IMO, Sunday is going to turn into glorified arctic FROPA. I think the setup is not good for a coastal storm…positively tilted trough, raging fast flow, progressive, forward lean PNA ridge, no “traffic”/block in the Atlantic to slow the flow down and cause a jam so a wave can form, deepen and come up the coast. Snow showers, squalls, etc…..coatings/dustings up to an inch? Sure. A coastal low forming, slowing down, deepening and coming up the benchmark? I’m not seeing it. If I’m wrong, tear me to bits on Monday morning

Just warm enough here that my road wasn't bad during the dog walk. Part of it might be the condition of the road... not really smooth is an understatement

The wind and windchill here definitely stings. The sun went away quickly this morning.. Sunday afternoon that windchill is going to absolutely be brutal.

So yeah…H5 comparison valid 6z Sunday. We want the PV back toward Mackinac Island…not the QB/ON border. EC > NAM > GFS > ICON

Agreed, WB needs to get its act together....several times over the last week it keeps freezing up....guess not missing anything this GFS run...

UHI was already well established in NYC as early as 1896. LGA and JFK UHI began to increase with the Queens urbanization and population growth expansion in the 1920s. Notice the more than +10° low temperature difference between Central Park and rural areas in August 1895. So this isn’t much of a change from the current 10°+ difference between NYC-LGA-JFK and surrounding areas when UHI episodes are more pronounced like during summer heatwaves and radiational cooling during the winter. Data for August 9, 1896 through August 9, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 76 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 75 NJ PATERSON COOP 75 NY BRONX COOP 75 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 73 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 73 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 72 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 72 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 72 NY WEST POINT COOP 71 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 71 NY BRENTWOOD COOP 70 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 70 CT NORWALK COOP 69 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 69 CT NEW LONDON COOP 69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 67 Data for August 10, 1896 through August 10, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 80 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 78 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 77 NY BRONX COOP 77 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 76 NJ PATERSON COOP 75 NY WEST POINT COOP 75 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 75 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 74 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 74 CT NORWALK COOP 74 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 74 CT NEW LONDON COOP 73 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 73 NY BRENTWOOD COOP 72 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 72 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 71 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 69 Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 81 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 78 NY BRONX COOP 78 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 76 CT NEW LONDON COOP 75 NJ PATERSON COOP 74 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 73 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 73 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 73 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 73 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 72 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 71 NY WEST POINT COOP 71 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 71 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 71 NY BRENTWOOD COOP 70 CT NORWALK COOP 69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 67

For being too far north. Dang

Fringed

Yup--I'm in a area where radar shows me in a state of continual drought.

why do you think the GFS is leading the way ? Its a crappy model that gets lucky once in a while - unreal you would say an event is on life support 3 -4 days out ............

Decently heavy echoes. If only we had some cold air around....

Rain and 37 here at the office. 34 at home with some sleet mixing in.

Radar coverage in this area is abysmal. Still waiting for them to stick a WSR-88D on top of Ascutney. One can dream...

38F, rain...

Bangor PA. 32° Snow. 1.5”

It all comes down to the TPV piece. You can see early on in NW Canada on the 18z GFS that it is tracking increasingly to the east. That only gets magnified over the course of the run. By game time it’s already scooting out through New England/Ontario/Quebec. It was more around the lakes last run. We can win if that is, as has been mentioned, more SW. I’d guess preferably it sticks around WI/MI, digging south. But there’s no shot while it’s so far east as in this run. Not for most of us.

Just went out to walk the dog.....a fair amount of glaze on the roads. Even though it's 35*, the pavement must be still cold from the past couple days. RN/ZR/SN mix. 35* Miserable EDIT: Temp down to 33.

Yeah see my post above…COD had some issues. Looks like COD has been doing this for awhile too. I had been using Pivotal more. Maybe Piv has better smoothing of the datapoints.

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

Actually it may be a COD mapping issue?