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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified
  4. stormy
    28.2 at 7 am.
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  6. Eskimo Joe
    Does timing of an autumnal or early winter SSW have any implication on the favorability for a colder/wetter season? Is this something that we want to have happen as early and strongly as possible, or wait until later on?
  7. Snowcrazed71
    Not sure if I'm posting this in the right section, although we haven't started November obs yet). Curious of thoughts on this as I've seen this being tossed around by more seasoned METs now?
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov-March 10mb Regression with ENSO It actually comes out to 73% chance of having above average Stratosphere vs below average in El Nino, and visa-versa That doesn't even include 23-24, which had 4 separate SWs. I haven't done research on if an early in the year event correlates with later on SSWs, but they usually do happen in bunches or not at all, because it's correlated to consistencies like QBO and ENSO. Filtering those out, it would be interesting to know what the numbers are indeed!
  9. Damage In Tolland
    Just watered the garden ! Stein out there
  10. snowman19
    Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……
  11. michsnowfreak
    Not here...thank goodness! I notice all the snowfall maps are the models interpretation at a 10-1 ratio. The last two winters here had almost all powder. Even assuming more wet snow this winter, its not a bad look at all.
  12. Intensewind002
    Only 39 for the low here Edit: 38.5 to be exact
  13. Today
  14. uofmiami
    My Muttontown station is probably 15 feet or so from the pool on the pool patio edge. I don’t know what the temp of the pool is but I know it’s not being heated.
  15. WxWatcher007
    We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast.
  16. Terpeast
    I think the more interesting question is whether an early SSWE usually leads to another strat event/PV disription later in the season. Especially during el nino winters.
  17. WxWatcher007
    WxWatcher007 changed their profile photo
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  20. winterwarlock
    29 here too today Indian Summer incoming later in the week
  21. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  22. mitchnick
    Heading toward the Euro weeklies/seasonal? Looks that way. Time will tell.
  23. EC609
    It's sooo boring though.
  24. GaWx
    Indeed, although Nov on the CFS has warmed, the 10 day mean Dec has cooled ~2F in the E US since 10 days ago. 10 day mean as of 10 days ago: Latest 10 day mean: 2F cooler. Could this be related to the even weaker early Nov SPV when considering the 35-40 day lag Chuck mentioned?
  25. psv88
    Think I figured out my issue, which was true last year early on. My pool is still around 60 and my weather station is around 25 feet from the pool. After initial drop my temp levels off from midnight to sunrise on clear calm nights. By late fall last year my temps were more normal again, but until the pool temp drops my overnight low will be higher
  26. LakePaste25
    A strong “rebound” Nina isn’t guaranteed. cold neutral is on the table.
  27. SnowGoose69
    The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak
  28. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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