All Activity

Every run it shifts more east the better chance it gets pushed out so that’s a good trend right there.

Suppression is the greatest concern for this storm. I don’t see any possibility of it cutting. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this ends up a lower mid-Atlantic simply because of the overpowering NS for what seems like years at this point. My hope is that we get enough of a nudge north up to gametime to get in on a few inches here…though I absolutely do not expect to be in the bullseye on this with the way the southern stream wave gets sheared out.

Not sure. My (probably wrong) running hypothesis is that it reviews thousands of scenarios at initialization and then runs with a "given a certain set up "X," "Y" will then happen 90% of the time." Lower resolution helps this approach.

@mappy Parkton mesonet dipped to 8 degrees last night. That 2.5" of snow depth did wonders.

We don't have the same piece of NS coming down to help lift it out of the SW that the Euro has. I doubt we get a similar evolution to our big hits though an improvement from its own baseline is possible.

Would defer to someone else to make sure I’m not crazy. I think phases are largely just timing based and this was a bit out of sync. Out of sync and 8-12” is ok with me though

Gfs likes the mid Atlantic for the weekend. Gets about .5 liquid up here

At 93, the GFS does not want to budge w/ weaning that big hp. 1051 sitting in North Dakota. Might come north a hair, but that maybe will yield yet another suppressed solution?

Very snowy weekend. Definitely uplifting

Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out

I concur with the terrain enhancement theory.

Already melting

What got in the way of a clean phase?

Potentially a good start

OP GFS pushing the HP further south this run. Not going to be an amped solution for sure

Not surprisingly, the AI GFS took a big jump South to the gfs. And vice versa. This 12z suite is honing in on the Mid Atlantic.

SFC wise, GFS is about the same vs 6z so far...but does look just a tiny bit less suppressed

Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour

Yeah, colder further south on the GFS AI this time.

The resident UVA poster approves of this change

Awesome jump south on the AI GFS

Physics based GFS has the SW a bit more east and less confluence in front. Generally seems to moving in the right direction but need to see what happens in the next 20 hours.

Ice on the Lakes as of Jan 18. This will expand, and thicken quickly this week. Most of the ice is new/thin, with bays being medium thick. N bays of L Superior are thick. The residents of the Apostle Islands (NE of the Bayfield Peninsula) should have driveable ice by the end of the month. They use ferries during non-ice times.

Huge jump south of 6z

The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby.