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no argument, but it's still no bueno here. Maybe some ImpAcTz Bermuda/E Canada I suppose

Latest dropsonde data supports Melissa is not only intensifying but is likely hours away from another potential rapid intensification process. Both images are 2 hours apart, and show an incredible structure change to Melissa’s eye. So while the internal process is not an ERC, it was very much structural and likely about to wrap up. The internal process was truly hindering mixing. First pass subsidence was not fully established. The second pass subsidence is highly noted. This is a precursor to a high-end hurricane going nuclear.

Wouldn't area also be a factor? E.g. reduced area during EWRC could theoretically result in increased wind speed while keeping kinetic energy the same right? (or vice versa - total kinetic energy could be increasing while wind speed remains about the same?)

With Melissa being a small, compact storm it’s possible they haven’t found the “sweet spot” in the northeast quad. Ive seen in years past where recon sometimes miss the sweet spot with these small compact systems. Other thing to consider is Melissa is undergoing some sort of internal process. Not an ERC but there are many different types of internal processes that a cyclone can undergo.

Dropsonde says ~944 mb.

I wonder why wind isn't responding with such big pressure drops and a relatively small storm. Kind of odd. If it was bigger or actively going through EWRC would make more sense.

The wind still hasn't risen at all today. Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.

The Ravens not running the ball is a mystery to me.

That’s a 4mb drop between recon passes

943mb

No, recon data does not find or support a double wind maxima. No signs of a concentric eyewall either. Pressure is again lower on recent pass. Pressure continues to drop but winds are not catching up yet.

The trend on the GEFS has been to a much more amplified system with cross stream interaction, albeit with incomplete phasing. Completely lost the progressive look from early yesterday. Also back to a negative tilt over the SE US. GEFS/GFS is in line with other guidance but def hasn’t been leading.

Link to live Jamaica cams posted on Twitter: https://laurentviewer.netlify.app/

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states. My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

Just looking at Apple Wx on my phone, I still expect to see temps in the upper 70s w/ sun. Right now, all I see are 50s and rain chances. This looks locked in for a bit. Should get a brief respite of warm during mid Nov before getting cold again. Long range pattern really does not want to budge.

Another day another shower. The past 2 weeks has been a complete flip from the drought conditions in terms of rain chances.

You are going to get buried in Saranac. I'll bet you'll be sick of snow by next April.

So do we think ewrc is trying to start or not? Sure looks like it on radar.

That’s one of my top analogs, too. Another one high on the list is 2017-18

Earlier this month, it was noted that based on objective ENSO-Teleconnections analysis, 2021-2022 was an emerging, high-ranked analog. Today, the NAO was -1.329 while the AO was +1.370. The last time the NAO was -1.000 or below while the AO was +1.000 or above during fall was November 4-5, 2021.

The current satellite loop depicts us finally getting a high pressure to the north strong enough to allow for a system to actually move to the south. Is this the start of a pattern change towards systems that produce more than NS shortwave-inspired broken lines of showers and remnant cloud slop?

Chili on the stove, temps in the low 60s, football on.

I guess it’s good to hold them to 6 points when they had the ball for about 14 mins in the first quarter?

It’s incredible

Moving forward this winter, I’ll be giving Google DeepMind quite a bit of attention. It’s been performing very well in the tropics.