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In W MA it’s a 30 minute drive from normal to moderate drought. Crazy gradient with regards to rainfall the past month or so.

Will be intersting to see if Walpack, NJ actually has a colder August monthly minimum temperature than September. They made it down to 37° on 8-31. The lowest so far this month has been 38°. After some cooler temperatures this weekend the pattern warms up again next week. Walpack NJ 2025-08-31 Mesonet 79 37 Walpack NJ 2025-09-09 Mesonet 75 38

2.1" here. +1

In most cases I wouldn't even think twice about the Euro AI showing a system developing in the Western Carribean at Day 11, but it is interesting to note that both the Google Deep Mind GenCast and regular Google Deep Mind ensemble are highlighting TC genesis in the same location and time, and then tracking into the Gulf. What are the AI models picking up on that the physics-based deterministic aren't? And to note, even the NHC is using the Google DM in their official forecasts. It has done very well this season.

Locally (Greenville, N.C.) it's been a strange summer too. With 22 days of below normal temps the high for August was a mere 91F. If not for that long stretch of brutal humidity in the first half of the month it would have been perfectly enjoyable. September so far has been remarkably cool and better yet, no problems with humidity. Our summer "died" much like the hurricane season.

lol, Nope.

fixed it

81.1° What a day

OH, well yeah... We're actually saying the same thing. I suspect it takes like a +3 sigma warm ENSO to finally tastes more than pepperRONIs enough to finally flavor the pizza of winters. haha... sorry about the dad joke. By the way ... you and I first started speaking ( in concept ) about RONI back in like 2009 - not sure you recall but that science isn't very novel at least to me. In fact, I remember back in 2004 having a discussion similar to compression/speed surplus with a fellow college alum. Anyway, point really being that I think when concepts emerge in multiple realms and are the same, that tends to be closer ( at least 'closer' ) to universally useful. Kinda of like fire was discovered all over the world at the same time 10s of thousands of years faster than word could have traveled about how to control it.

Ewr 86. Lots of mid 80s showing up

I don't post here often, mainly only during wintertime. But this post resonates. I feel that the 2000s and 2010s being record snowy was the final push before our winters became too warm to support above average snowfall. We had the right amount of cold air and moisture, the right balance, to allow for those amazing winters. But this decade, we've been in bad spots all around except 2021 and 2022 (for some posters.) And it doesn't seem to be getting any better either. Maybe one day we'll see a good winter again.

I headed up to Waterrock Knob today to check out the leaf progression. There is some change with a few trees beginning to show changes towards vibrant reds, orange and yellow. We're probably about 10 to 15 days away from peak at elevation. Surprisingly around the house, Poplar are turning yellow and brown and beginning to fall. That late August cold spell did it's work!

Yeah, too hot.

Ha ha, Yes, Going to use passive heat to heat this winter too, Let the sun do the work, Quite warm in there today.

0.99”

Those are some pretty low probs for MSS (massena) and EFK (newport) given the guidance.

Looks great! U fancy. I have the frame from an old trampoline and some plastic.

A total of 0.26" of rain yesterday. Better than 0.00"

Just finished a small greenhouse as well to winter the citrus trees, Will start the seedlings for the garden too next spring.

Don’t see any tropical stuff, but end of next week does look rainy on the guidance. Precisely when is tbd.

That 42 for PWM could translate to a frost for me. I usually run 3-4° cooler on rad nights. Too close for comfort. We have a s-load of flowers and seedlings that are slated for sale. Looks like we'll be covering them. Sheet mulching the (non GYX obs) grass we have left out back and making a mini greenhouse before spring so won't be an issue next year.

Remind me please... what are you at since 8/1 (12z cococrahs)?

0.13" rainfall from yesterday's event. 2.68" total so far for September. It's been a month since we used a/c, although September has been nice but not really that chilly. Lowest temp has been 51° on 9/9. We've had one day with maxT in the 60's (65 on 9/7). August had 1 such day (68° on 8/20), July had none (closest was 79° on the 10th and 27th), and June had 5. The last sub-50° day was 49° on June 3 (following 47° on June 2). Max Temperatures have been more impressive, although this year's "heat waves" (subjectively) didn't seem to last long. Hottest days were: June 24 - 101° (100.8°, hottest June day I have seen) July 29 - 98° June 25 - 97° July 30 - 96° July 25 - 95° August touched 90 only once (90.0° on 8/11. 8/13 came close at 89.6°). If you want to call 8/13 90° and add a day to the total, I won't argue. We've had 16 90° days this year: May - 0 June - 6 July - 9 August - 1 September - 0 Lest these stats imply a cool summer, through August 17 there were also 12 days with a max of 88° or 89°. We haven't come close to those high temperatures since 8/17 and the past month has been rather nice. Another 6 weeks of neither needing to use air conditioning nor heating to maintain a good temperature inside the house would be nice. Location: north Smithtown, NY