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Expecting the power to go out here in Lake Norman area around Sunday night. Sleet to 24 hours of freezing rain sucks.

H48

This is the kind of NAM sounding that makes me nervous about sleet on Sunday. It's valid at 12z Sunday morning about 50 miles NW of Richmond, VA. Super cold surface & 850mb temps with 700mb temps -2C or -3C and the ptype is SLEET because of a pronounced warm layer near 750mb. The surface high can't save us from that. If the upper levels are amped and the mid-level lows which will track to our west are slow to weaken, our sounding could end up looking like that on Sunday afternoon/evening. That would be a bummer considering the depth of saturation through that column... would be a lot of QPF wasted as sleet.

Euro looks nearly identical to 12z at 42 on the 500vort

81. Precip shield appears a lil more flatter..just a little

The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something.

Here she comes

Real question every post you mention Scott. Do you know him?

I would think the AI models get all the same data the physics models do, except instead of feeding a physics engine they feed an LLM. If that map is right then it seems that the AI has definitely gone with the WV primary idea, which is not great news.

Hit -1 yesterday morning so it's good to get that out of the way for this Winter. I just got back from a long journey into the Main Forum. Such an odd place. Everyone seems to reference where they live as the only place that exists in current setups and past winters. It's good to be home.

Surface about the same so far thru 66. Going just switch to that since those panels come in quicker

on 10:1 as well

Hey man - I'm really sorry.. I'm just a little frustrated because my family disowned me after I used my dad's credit card to DoorDash a yardstick from Ace hardware. Now all I'm left with is spending most of my day on the forum trying to make funny posts using sexual innuendo. In all seriousness (which is rare from me), congrats on getting into UVA and all the best

And we still got double digits

heh, 10:1 too… wow

Definitely some warm air issues at the coast

Looks fairly consistent to me

Very similar to UKie. Probably 13-14 with ratios. It seems we have reached max tonight. Not sure it could have gone better. Now gotta hold this for 3 days.

Yeah EC AIFS followed same pattern as GFS... 0z and 12z similar, 18z outlier 0z and 12z better phase, coastal redevelopment, big hit SNE especially east

Euro AI has ticked north yet again. the 0z op run may be something special

I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work.

Those temps at onset on the AI are pretty mouthwatering. Around 10 degrees out this way.

Heights a hair higher out in front.baja sw in about the same position

when I was at UMD for grad school we'd have weekly department meetings and sometimes Louis Uccellini - or as I call him - Louis Uccellini - would show up. I gave a research update one time and he told me, and I quote, "good job"

How is this compared to the previous run or two?