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And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

What blew my mind with the Euro was how it ignored the mid layer heater. But what also never happens is a deep low passing way south and east not closing off 7h 8h and allowing warmth to blow so far inland. Great call by Scooter. Tip of the Yankee cap

Ended with 8.5". Decent first event.

I did NOT make 4+ analysis posts for the show hole to be squarely over Charlottesville imma need that to change to some rando place like 50 miles east. That said, seems like positive trends so I’ll take a look at them later

With or without gum on it?

Hey buddy

I noted that right before the storm started....the Euro was really going to get the W on the track, but it was just awful with the thermals. The whole system was pretty weird though. If you had told me before the storm started that the only information you would give me is that I would spend almost the entire storm below freezing, I would have at minimum expected snow to be overproducing in a very large swath of SNE.....but instead it was actually fairly underwhelming. Having low pretty decently SE with good ageo northeryl drain but yet we were ripping 925mb from the south relentlessly to the point of overperofming on warmth at that level....didn't have that on my bingo card. Typically I'd expect that type of track to have the warm nose way up at 750mb or something.

At 33, getting stretched more than 6z. Less press over NE but over the SW is flatter.

Another reason the HRRR works is because it brings the heavier precip in faster tomorrow night

Please don't Dec 89 us ugh

12z HRRR brings the smoke.

too much pacific energy keeping the pna ridge flattened and ruining an otherwise great pattern

The pattern seems like it's about to recycle what we've just gone through the past two or three weeks, it's not sure what exactly to focus on yet but there's lots of players on the field at least. Let's hope climo help some others out as we move forward. AND I need to stop typing and get some sleep! I'm not even sure if what I'm typing makes any sense

@bristolri_wx Looks like it's in "View Only" mode. Which boomer didn't close the sheet?

I went back starting at the 12z run on 11/27..and the Euro actually was pretty close with the track. However, thermals and storm intensity, especially between 11/28-11/30 were way off. Not sure why it would do well with the track and suck at everything else. Going to be a fun winter.

Yes I mean with systems maybe once twice a week it gets stagnant in here. Stir it up and convo gets real.

I think it’s the usual inflator. Toss it. But I just meant the jackpot zone. There was no epic banding, but the ones we had kept lining up over this area.

06z Euro was trying to get some snow into SNE early Saturday....not much, maybe a C-1"...not really buying it. Maybe a few flurries.

Well it is run on an original Super Nintendo 64 so they have to keep taking the cartridge out and blowing on it to restart it after certain panels so i get it.

The medium range appears to show a more canonical La Niña pattern than we’ve seen from previous La Niña winters this decade, with a ridge over the GOA, cold in interior western Canada spreading eastward through the Great Lakes. Recent La Niña winters have shown extreme displacement of the North Pacific ridge from what is the typical location, with 2022-2023 featuring the ridge very far west (over the Aleutians), resulting in extremely heavy seasonal snows in the Sierra Nevadas (La Nina is normally dry there). 2024-2025 featured the north pacific ridge displaced much further east than usual, resulting in very high +PNA values and is very atypical for La Niña. It’ll be interesting to see if we experience more extreme displacements of the typical La Niña pattern this coming decade.

Through 24, Heights a little better out front and overall better tilt to the trough. Still early

Hey Don, If a -PNA verifies for Dec, which is becoming increasingly likely as you’re implying, the chances for a +PNA in Jan are increased based on the last 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs all proceeding to a +PNA Jan. This includes Jans like 1985, 2011, 2014, and 2022. There was even some tendency for the strongest +PNA of these Januaries to follow the strongest -PNA of these Decembers. At NYC, ~70% of those Januaries were colder anomalywise than the preceding Dec at NYC. The only 3 Januaries that weren’t were 2011 (which was still cold), 2017 (PNA +0.28), and 2023 (PNA +0.22): Dec: Jan: Feb: @EastonSN+PNA in Dec of 2008 was -1.41 and was +0.61 in the much colder Jan.

Is he hazy, or just downright ignorant. Most here could a better job explaining what happened than that clown. Sad he is a pro…doesn’t sound like it.

EPS trying to really mute the mid-month torch. No real coherent threats, but a lot of buckshot on the ensembles....I suppose 12/9-10 still has a bit of the clipper/redeveloper sig, but not super strong. It has a system right on its heels...another stronger clipper...could morph into a SWFE....or just be a glorified FROPA. Way too early to really care.

It comes out so slow you will make it no matter where you are going lol