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Fell for the bait ... after 20 something years of this pastime, too

The rev has forsaken his flock

I remember the Nam'd to end all a few days prior then watching in stunned belief as models all went to it the final 24 hours. Even then I wasn't sure until that 81 death band set up late morning and decided not to move. Off and lightning strikes for hours. I'm still upset our friend in Carlisle measurements didn't end up at least in the first initial report. He did the snowboard by the book for the entire event. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

So is winter over ?

I'm in a "townhouse" so basically a "row" ("attached" on both sides). It got down to about 64 and once the heat was on, within a few days, and after the cold dry air after fropa, the humidity plunged to 22% (perfect for the expected static electricity zaps and nosebleeds). Humidifiers were finally set up and i got the downstairs up to ~36% (with the upstairs ~40%, where the rain helped). That 35% - 40% (max) range is good for me. That central air heat can be a bear.

Bias is easy to discern among those who actually venture to issue a forecast, but it's also there amongst the Sunday AM QBs...just more subtle. The tell tale sign is the presentation of one-sided data. I think a quality that is inherent of all good posters is a willingness to present data that is representative of the range of possible outcomes. ...ie the folks that relegate themselves to posting about the MC and -IOD are just as culpable as those in the SSW/phase 8 circle-jerk. We all know the ones on each side....you know what the data offered will favor before reading it.

Holiday period is way out there a month-plus from now, but none of the guidance has that period as a torch right now. If anything, it shows up as pretty damned cold on weeklies.

I was remote for a lot of years before it was fashionable going back to 2006. Not commuting was great, but I actually enjoyed traveling and seeing human beings in an office during that time. These days I'm a self-employed team of 1 (mostly) and all the back office functions are conducted at home, but that isn't really "remote". Low here was 27.9⁰. The 4 hours around 28 or 29⁰ wasn't quite a hard freeze. Maybe there was further from the sound.

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

I thought there was supposed to be a big cold snap around Thanksgiving?

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time. Both sides play the same game and never admit to it. Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings. This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92.

Ask Scooter

I pretty much run my business from two spots on the couch or the dining room table if I need to spread out papers. I go visit customers when I feel like wearing real shoes or I need a break from the wife

Don’t think that’s gonna happen this year…but torture yourself if you must.

Looking specifically at Erie, the low end GLERL projection would bring lake levels down to 173.78 meters by late winter, which has only been reached or exceeded twice since the mid 1960s on a monthly average - 173.78m in March 2003 & 173.75m in February 2011. That's going with the low-end projection, so it might not happen, but certainly a stark contrast from the near record high levels of 2019 & 2020.

Only 0.21" so far this month here. 2.18" is the avg for Nov. A very dry Oct-Nov up here. Oct was 10th driest with 0.63".

I do agree that the majority of it is a cesspool, though.

Yes. That’s true.

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here.

It’s pretty good. Can get boring after a while though, so sometimes I go in

I've been shafted, as well....last normal snowfall season was 2017-2018....haven't come within 10" since.

Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range.

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves.