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It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west.

Yea, that's not accurate.

Yea, something clear has changed....we just need to wait on the snow get the memo.

62” lol. Come on man. So here’s something funny. In HS when I volunteered at the NWS, I remember one of them commented they slanted their blizz 96 total to make the public more sympathetic because of the tornado earlier that summer lol.

I agree, but gonna have to wait this out....CC is definitely more feast or famine....but shit, someone tell Mother Nature it's time to eat.

I wasn't asking. The it was implied. It's what you want was my comment. .

I am actually pretty excited about this period coming up. If we can get the PV to cooperate and displace south we could get smashed. Big if though.

I actually just saved that graphic....lol

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing. But, we all know how it goes here.

The upper levels dont support it going negative sooner. Not saying that map is correct because it is most likely not close to what will actually happen. But there are is really no upper level jet that would cause it to wrap up. Its pretty dead up top.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

Guys I just found this, which you may already be aware of. Is the score actually calculated as shown below? If so, it looks like it is calculated based strictly on the depth of the snow, the area of the land it covers, and the population inhabiting said land, and without regard to whether the location is within the 'northeast.' Edit: It does look like this is how the score is calculated. ChatGPT does a great job explaining this with examples. It mentions that it calibrates to account for population growth as well.

Nice soak job

I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah. Mitch is prob right.

I didn’t mean anything other than to note the big differences over a relatively short distance. Like PF always says, orographics and microclimates are so fascinating.

Find myself kinda seeing Ji's point on this one. But I don't know shit, so you're prob right. Seems as tho the swing back further west would give it more time climb closer up the coast.

For the euro and it being only 144 out that’s a pretty big difference at h5. Won’t get a good idea on the set up for another few days anyway.

Yeah, it's kinda hard to tell for me

They are interviewing everybody lol He wouldn't be awful. I prefer Klint Kubiak- young OC, comes from the Shanahan tree. Actually made Sam Darnold look good lol. His dad was a very successful OC for one season for the Ravens before moving on to coach the Broncos. I think Lamar would approve. He hated Monken.

Jeez I don’t hate the 18z gfs. The end of the run is what you like to see for a cold miller an or overrunning. Big time antecedent airmass with a nice low coming into the Plains.

10”ish in that. Great event.

https://x.com/i/status/2009414552912339173