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Weaker MJO 5 peak this October similar to the non PNA mismatch years like 2022, 2021, and 2016. http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt October 2025….Phase 5 peak +1.302… October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3 October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

Yeah that's just wrong lol. I will say, as good as he has played early in his career, I question how durable he can be with that lanky build.

Flacco was incredible yesterday for the Bengals, but he found out, like Burrow, that regardless of how amazing you are on offense, having one of the worst defenses in NFL history is very difficult to overcome.

18z NAM trended a bit more towards the GFS with the wind potential Wednesday night

I spent about 2 hours today making some phone calls to reach the right people who can perhaps turn up the pressure. This isn't going to be resolved overnight though.

October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.

I moved to San Francisco in the offseason, so I'll be trading the Mad River Valley for South Lake Tahoe for the next four years. I'm lucky enough to have several friends/places to stay there too, so hopefully will be doing a decent bit of snow sliding at Kirkwood and Heavenly. Still very much interested in the fortunes of the New England ski areas from afar and am already missing the vibes in the leadup to the season. 65 and sunny every day just doesn't bring the same level of stoke...

do 50mb

Another similarity to the fall of 2021 and 2022 like we are also seeing with the strong +WPO in October. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html

Euro weeklies look nice for December Negative NAO popping up

Weeklies look nice going into December Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold . Having the PV weak will help us

Weeklies look nice going into December Nice negative NAO and plenty of cold . Having the PV weak will help us

2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasonal +WPO.

Carson leaving Ch 6 (again). Off to some Maine conservation/climate role. Good luck, but ditch the hair piece.

Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.

Give it another week.

Yeah but that is an historical marine heatwave in the north Pacific. Sure yes doesn't look like it will bring a prolonged +TNH but with the forecast being neutral enso for the second part of winter it's a toss up.

If that train of systems be a littler further south, it would be more run.

Yay?

Weak Nina's arent the end all. My question is how much has the background state changed since 2000? I am not hating what I am seeing so far. A white Christmas would be nice for a change. 2009 and 2020 were the last two out this way.

could be a red flag. yep. that and the amplitude. euro’s not free of blame in doing this in that range. AIF/ICON/UKMET trended tho. just sayn’ Again there’s index support fwiw

Wind damage Wednesday night / Thursday

That's a time that correlates with -NAO from around Christmas to the 1st week of January

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter