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Yeah, who knows which was "worse" but the 1635 route probably had overall warmer waters (Late August rocket fuel) and took on slightly warmer waters than the 1938, due to a 1944 ish curve closer to shelf waters

Tomorrow will be another very cool day for the season. The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s. It will gradually warm up on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the mercury could reach 80°. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, a sustained peirod of above normal temperatures could develop starting late next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. The SOI was +0.42 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.149 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0° (1.0° above normal).

at least you didn't get the rain we have here, 61 and rainy all day yuck

Looks like today may be another NOVA special.

EPS is real warm. Yeah it may cool off at the end but still AN.

Some debate about if 1635 was worse than 1938... I know it pushed a lot of water ahead of it. With CC and all, it does lend to the idea that a more powerful storm could survive up here

I'm in the 50's and cloudy today...great yard work weather.

*WAS terrible. 1635 was the GOAT though, something like that could be improbable damage. Ideally it is like Hurricane Carol but 15-30mph stronger LF's and much larger, like a mini Typhoon Tip <3

For up here? ... I know the mud scrolls or whatever hint at pretty powerful storms in the 1400s or whatever... Not sure we could top a 1938

I think it snip my scrotum and use it to tie a noose to hang myself with.

1938 was terrible but I mean, aren't there worse possibilities?

Yeah I’ll pass.

It's such a small area that a sizable storm line covers most of us.

We take!

Getting a little bit .06

Tough sell/science for now ... ( and I realize you're not asking me directly - ) but, I've surmised it may be related to C02 growth in the atmosphere, exceeding absorption rate/capacity of the oceans. With more C02 left available to store tropospheric heat, that effects heat exchange efficiency in the total atmosphere/ocean coupled model. How? A warmer C02 richer atmosphere increased WV loading, and above some mass, this slows the evaporation rate off the ocean, which physically transports heat away with the evaporating mass... This slows ocean cooling, ...such that heat absorption exceeds heat escaping --> temp goes up. Probably? approaching a critical mass threshold where we all die. Have nice day /// 2023 didn't just happen for shits and giggles. And the ITZ SST band only dropping .6, while the Sub -T SSTs tickle history, means the total region is actually not going down.

Soaking wet today in the march in nyc. But it is like 65 so super pleasant.

That period starting late week/early the following week does look like the first decent shot of a heat wave for SNE. Maybe even 4-5 days in the 90s

How often is severe weather "widespread", though? Isn't it somewhat scattershot by nature?

Not one peak of sun here today and it's back to misery mist.

I know the privy folk won't like this, but I would not wish away a FM strong cat 3- borderline 4 (130-140? mph weakening to 120) rocketing forward N or even NNW <3 into SNE.

The SST's were always 78F if not 83F peak, saw and measured those every year I used to measure from the late 80's through 2005. The "good" years you can bake some inlets to 80's easily - EWB, West Fal., and so on. It's basically a 1000 or 10,000 /year miracle to rip a cat 3-near 4? up into NE? lol

I can hear thunder but radar says i miss this blob. Doesn't look like my weekend but it's still early