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ensembles continue to offer little to no hope for anyone banking on an early fall

256 FXUS61 KCTP 031135 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 735 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of our CWA through Midnight this Thursday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues with a severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through this Thursday evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues with a severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through this Thursday evening Main change this forecast cycle was to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA based on the current wide distribution of moderate to heavy rain and embedded/training TSRA along with a HREF/NAM/MRMS blend of short range model guidance and remote sensing. A seemingly endless train of mid/upper level impulses riding ESE along the southern edge of a persistent jet and within a region of broad upper level diffluence and anomalously high PWATs of nearly 2 inches will continue to interact with numerous, converging convective outflow boundaries to produce several more bouts of heavy showers/TSRA today through at least early tonight. Basin "Average" rainfall across the CWA will likely range between 0.75 to 1.25 inches but as we saw Wed/Wednesday night, training/and back-building TSRA could easily dump over 3 inches of rain in just an hour and lead to significant flash flooding. The target areas for the heaviest rainfall today and this evening should be the Southwest half of the CWA as a well- defined outflow boundary has pushed into southern PA early today. We do expect the airmass to recover quickly late this morning/early this afternoon as this first MCS moves SE. However, a glance just to the left shows another developing MCS close on its heels over West-Central Lake Erie. This feature is progged by high res near term model guidance to track SE twd the laurel and diminish by 14-15Z. By 19-20Z today, more TSRA fire across Northern PA and a second larger area follows for this evening over a similar part of the state that experience the heavy rain over the past 24 hours. Additionally, increased southwest to westerly flow today will continue to pump in the late summer heat and very high dewpoints. A heat advisory remains in effect from 11a-8p Thursday across a portion of south central PA where max heat index values are projected to reach/exceed 100F. As mentioned above, SPC`s severe risk are will encompass primarily the SW half of the state where ML CAPE will be the highest, but the MRGL risk area will cover practically the entire rest of Eastern PA. An upper level trough passage favors one final round of showers and storms on Friday, but fortunately the Labor Day weekend is trending dry. The upper ridge is forecast to retrograde by the end of the week which allows for a return to more seasonal temperatures and lower humidity this weekend into early next week. &&

Some more impressive rain totals since yesterday. Atlgen 1.59" / Chester Springs 1.40" / East Nantmeal 1.80" / Warwick 1.32" / Devault 1.78" / Kennett Square 1.22" / West Bradford 2.01" / Avondale 2N 0.80" /West Chester 1.29" and West Grove 0.92"

Low of 68 with 1.75” of rainfall. Man, what a night. Multiple rounds of heavy rain with loads of T&L. Can’t believe our son slept through it all, daughter not so much.

You had one more than me. We had zero, nada, Nunca tstorms. The most boring place on the planet for weather extremists , SNE

Three times yesterday, promising-looking storms died just before they arrived here. Happened again this morning. What a waste of thunder.

Glad it worked out across NY/PA but damn what a blow. Couldn't even muster one day.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are expected once again today through early tonight.

There will absolutely be more thunderstorms over the winter than we saw all summer. Guaranteed

It seems NE of New York City this summer ... we rain just fine synoptically, as we've had three definitive events each raining pan-regionally 1.5 to 3" ( yes with some exceptions in either direction). Anything remotely related to convection has resulted in either less, or not at all...depending on one's specific location. This is just going from memory and being a weather dweeb and always paying attention to what's going on.. so, taken fwiw I have only had one direct thunderstorm at my location. It occurred when I was away on vacation. Otherwise, ...nadda. I realize this region of the continent does appear challenged for convection - certainly there is a grousing/commiserating support group mentality going on in this social media over the matter ( jesus -). But relative to our climatology, nadda is an exceptionally low result even for SNE summer - both by numbers and anecdotally. I can honestly say, I've never seen that in the 45 years I've been a New Englander. I actually have a high confidence understanding as to why this took place, but if the orbit of the moon is the extent of the average reader's attention span or even will to use the energy to read in here, the former explanation unfortunately requires the orbit of Pluto ... so -

Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-040400- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0016.260903T0642Z-260904T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Altoona, Johnstown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Lancaster, Philipsburg, Berwick, Wellsboro, Williamsport, Danville, DuBois, Lewistown, Huntingdon, Sunbury, Bloomsburg, Newport, Renovo, Lewisburg, Bradford, Mount Union, St. Marys, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Hershey, Warren, Gettysburg, Shamokin, Pottsville, Coudersport, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Emporium, York, Trout Run, Laporte, Clearfield, Bedford, Ridgway, Lebanon, State College, and Carlisle 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Warren and York. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional, multiple rounds of heavy rain from thunderstorms will create the threat for flash flooding of streams, creeks and poor drainage areas today through early tonight. Rainfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour where several storms track east-southeast across the same locations. There should be a lull in the rain for several hours during the late morning and early afternoon hours today, before the thunderstorms greatly increase in number once again across Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

At least we can watch the OV get their 25th derecho of the season. Wiz, get a new hobby.

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

I had 1.34” from the storms last night. I feel like we’ve been dry for a few summers in August and September, but not this year. .

I had 1.34” from the storms last night. I feel like we’ve been dry for a few summers in August and September, but not this year. .

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?

Key to all these is RI or last minute organization right before LF. Great examples. I think S FL gets some brown ocean effect simply due to the swampiness/ever present water of that part of the state. Wilma and Katrina are other examples of storms that did not weaken over S FL.

Bad luck. 0.53 in no time.

1.89” over the last 24 hours, 2.33” for the month already.

Were you predicting -PNA for the season, though? What you are referring to is simply misinterpretation of a seasonal chart....I recall someone was telling me that the PNA would average negative. Anyway, NBD...I wasn't trying to call anyone out.

My interpretation of that is volatility.....biased + first half, neutralish to perhaps even somewhat negative second half.....but AO should be negative.

Well can’t even get .25” . Webbed hands and his sack all over my face.

49 for the overnight low here... 40 at the yellow dog. Looks like another nice day with only a slight chance of showers tonight and tomorrow. Endless string of 70's in the forecast.