All Activity

And for the end of the week? A solid nobody knows? Some models are spitting out some hefty rainfalls. I hate rain. "Finally, the guidance suite is hinting at a possible coastal low pressure some time Thursday into Friday. However, there are rather large variances in track and timing. For example, the 12Z GFS has a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine at 8 AM next Friday. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF has this same low pressure about 300 miles east of southern MD for this same time. Different positions also lead to different tracks due to interactions with a mid level trough."

Do you mean incoming weather? I thought this week has been pretty sweet.

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.

Totally getting missed with the rain and storms tonight.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 - 1908 90 0 Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 94 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 93 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 91 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 90

April in perpetuity would be hell lol

It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Ninoi is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.

it could be worse .... it could be April 71/56 at sunset

a tornado went over a mountaintop at Kaysville, Utah today

Did you see this?

48” pretty much here in bed stuy Brooklyn

Chuck is in negative Nancy mode. His usual state. He swings like a pendulum lately though.

Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right.

When I die and go to purgatory I expect the weather will be just like this forever

Convection has not been persistent enough. For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing. There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system. 1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W 99L is in a very narrow margin area. Look at the WV loop attached, Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S. 18z SHIPS output environment is not good. Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low.. https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that. A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!" TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

^Much higher correlation in the Southern Hemisphere Winter, wonder if it means Northern Hemisphere Winter will respond more

You sure? You better ask @EastCoast NPZ lol.

Just brutal

Different visual on the AAM, but to the point of the latitude AAM chart posted. It's telling the same story. Namely that the tropics and SH are still in the spotlight WRT +AAM. Meanwhile the NH, is still on the sidelines for the most part. Very clearly broken down on the bottom half of the chart via regional contributions. Which remain around neutral for the NH components. One other thing to note is regarding the +AAM spike upcoming. That looks to be a byproduct of a recent rather large +MT event in the SH (Andes) mostly. Which is the same thing that happened with the previous ones we've seen to date thus far. So that's not too surprising given the state of the SH vs NH as discussed above and in this thread. These are all obs, not a forecast. We'll see how it goes from here but the NH apparently still needs to be brought into this game as of right now.

There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans. Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW? Your thoughts?

0.25" of anvil rain here. More rounds of rain to come.

Sunday looks shot, but if we stay dry most of the week it may be mostly 60s with 40s/50s at night. It's just a lot of NE flow.