All Activity

Thread headline 425 PM Sat 10/11/25 adjusted with little change in expectations-potential from the Wednesday evening origination. Will check back Sunday morning. Little more that I can contribute.

Relatively canonical +WPO look for temps in Oct so far - if displaced slightly. November is very different though if it holds.

Sunny and 70 here in Pittsburgh. Perfect fall day.

Major flooding expected at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst Sun overnight especially.

Coastal flood warnings now issued

18z 3K NAM is dramatically drier compared to 12z. Regular NAM is still ok for places in eastern half of NJ and east.

Believe it or not, NAM guidance so far is closest to the current depiction of our storm.

Cold patch this month in the West should expand. Not really that similar to last October when the West was blazing. The cold season still looks much better than last year to me too. You could already see what we were heading into by the end of October last year - Lot of drought nuking rain coming the next five days. That near record setting storm in the North Pacific is a feature of the winter by the way, not a bug. You will have very powerful storms in the winter.

Lemme guess…your outlook will include the word “patience”.

So far most of LI/se NYS and NJ .01 to .24" since 6AM ish.

Looks like a good hit, 1.00-2.50" rain tomorrow into Monday with winds 20-30mph gusts up to 50mph+ at times. Some coastal flooding & beach erosion then storm moves away quickly Monday night into Tuesday. I'm driving from Douglaston to Kingston tomorrow and will return on Tuesday. There should be slightly lower rain amounts up in Kingston points north and west. WX/PT

Interesting. I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI. I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds. I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

Someone was asking about the star burst the other night during the super moon, it was the Draconids, they are unique because they peak at a very reasonable time in the early evening. The Draconid meteor shower in October 2025 is unfortunately not ideal for viewing due to the recent supermoon, which peaked around October 7th and created bright moonlight that washes out fainter meteors. The shower peaked on October 8th, but the extra-bright light from the full moon made it difficult to see many shooting stars, though some might still be visible, especially brighter ones. What to know about the Draconids and the supermoon Supermoon and Draconids overlapped: The Draconid meteor shower ran from October 6th to 10th, peaking on October 8th, the same week as the October full supermoon, which occurred on October 7th. Moonlight hinders viewing: Supermoons are brighter and appear larger than a typical full moon, and this extra brightness creates significant light pollution that makes it hard to see fainter meteors. Best time to look: The Draconids are unique because they are best viewed in the early evening, right after dusk, as their radiant point is high in the sky at that time. This is in contrast to most other meteor showers, which are best seen after midnight. What you can still see: While the bright moon made the shower less impressive, you may still have a chance to see the brighter, more dramatic meteors, especially if you find a location with minimal light pollution and look for meteors away from the moon's glare.

The weather has been a miracle in Frederick so far today. Got a couple of hoops sessions in and some errands done in between. Much more sun than anticipated, though clouds seem to have increased a bit. Looks like this will be a pretty lame event out here with basically a NS kicker incoming...though the beaches will have fun.

We just don't know. No one does

Same here, plus steam heat really makes my allergies act up. I prefer the space heater in my bedroom over the house heat being on as long as possible.

Wasn't expecting the day to be a total dud with this rain.

and with that said it's now bright and sunny here, so sunny that there's a glare....

Seasonal persistence?

High wind warnings issued, wind advisories issued

Did i log into the dead horse forum? My bad.

D+ on the outlook before it’s issued

Ray in rewrite mode.

Gusting over 20 mph already. Waves are quite big with white caps. Kinda surprised to see that already.

Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit. Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast. Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy. I imagine they will slowly walk it down.