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October 31st. It seems like El Nino likes snow on Halloween here.

We’ll be onto 2001-2030 normals

Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier.

I was wondering why no one here had started a thread.

Now that's a coast to coast TORCH

12z gfs is very entertaining

"Bagging" multiple peaks in a day is a big thing in the Northeast, where I hiked all 67 4000 footers in New England with my Dad before moving to CO in 2010. It's easy to climb 3-4 in a day or half a dozen in a weekend. All are Class 1 or 2 hikes, though there are some class 3 options if you try hard enough on a couple of peaks in NH and Maine. Funny thing is that weather and hiking have historically been two of my main interests, but "peakbagging" much less so since I moved to CO. (on the AT, my trail name was "Weatherman"). I've climbed two fourteeners, but there is so much more great hiking out here that does not involve the highest peaks that they've lost much of their appeal (plus, the competition for parking and real estate during 14er hikes is a big negative). But we digress. Some very thoughtful winter forecasts have emerged in the last week. What do people think? Personally, I'm skeptical that we'll get more than a "normal" amount of snow this year, because persistence always seems to win out. Though I'd gladly take "normal".

Is there any research or data on how hurricanes one year impact the ocean temperatures the next year? I feel like just because there may not be any hurricanes this year, that doesn't impact next year's ocean temps nearly as much as other ocean and atmospheric processes that take place over the winter.

Agree John... It's not something that can be easily incorporated into the winter forecast, but given climate trends and an increasing frequency of excessive precipitation events, it certainly deserves a bolded footnote!

A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere?

Try the raindrop app.

Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.

Correct it's not the amount of acorns. It's the size of the squirrels that dictate snowfall.

0.66" here* *Asked the wife to check/empty the gauge for me when she went out for the chicks. When I later asked her for the total she went blank. And 0.66" was the best she could guess. Unfortunately it's double any nearby station. I've seen that happen, legitimately, but looking at the radar overnight, it doesn't really support that.

Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...

November 18, 2026

Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members):

This has been our pattern since March. Ridge out West builds east from time to time. With the warm ups being stronger than the cool downs which followed.

Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.

The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino:

July giving you the FU finger

The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.