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Like the op, the GEFS has been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. 0z run compared to the most recent 18z run-

It's possible.

Clear. Windy. 15.9F

You must have 1994 on your mind!! Shades of @Bob Chill's total glaciation with a foot of ice!!

55 as the sun sets on this 1st day of 2026. .

GEFS is close enough to something to stay interested especially SE of DC

1/1: 0.1" T: 3.4"

How are we warm the first 10 days of the month ? I mean beer? It’s in the teens and 20’s for highs thru Tuesday . That’s Jan 6th. Maybe after that a few milder days but to say the first week of Jan is warm when it’s WBN is simply wrong

Yes, in the next 14 days I have four forecast days above 40. I may fill up the pool.

MAV mins for tonight. There’s actually a little WAA overnight too. I suppose it wouldn’t take much to decouple in the CRV after midnight if they can avoid clouds by then.

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

I was surprised, too. We’ll see whether anything measurable is added in the climate entry.

Happy New Year! Please post your Jan obs as well as current/recent wx occurring anywhere. Regardless of what the rest of Jan has in store, I’m outside enjoying another stellar day thanks to Canada!

LGA is usually pretty reliable with measurements. They must not have bothered to measure. It seems unlikely they didn't get something measurable.

i am a weenie lol i need to hold onto ANY hope i can

Final Snowfall Totals from the Snow Squall: Bridgeport: Trace Islip: 0.4" New York City-Central Park: 0.5" New York City-JFK Airport: 0.4" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: Trace Newark: 0.7"

Lol I appreciate your optimism and usually I am optimistic too. But that low pressure near the outer banks is barely budging north. I hope the northern stream comes in hot and heavy, and perfectly timed. I'll be glad if I get a dusting.

Wind don’t care

They still have value for guidance. Some runs/periods are better than others. At times they’ve been stellar while at other times they’ve been in the commode. Overall they’re the best that we have for the long range, which is very hard for models to forecast. But in this case, the medium range of the Euro has been in the commode with too cold apparently! Before this, the medium range of models had been too warm for that cold 3 week period and for 12/29-1/1.

Probably not accounting for radiational cooling and snow.

18z GFS continues the trend of baby steps in the right direction. Interesting...

This makes sense. If it weren’t for… threats/possibilities… like these, and potential tracking of such, I’m not sure this forum would have the life it still does. Any hope of winter weather gets me pumped, and every dash is a dagger. I feel like a junkie. True to form, I keep coming back. That said, this place is an alternative to the mainstream, and given many of the posts, one that you can learn something from. Some posts are leaning social media-esque, but what can you reasonably expect these days? Same posters spout legit knowledge on the board in the next post, so the value is clear. I recall lurking in the 2009-2010 winter, and yeah it’s a different landscape, but with much of the same crowd. Perhaps the point about thread creation is legit, but we’ve been in a shitty long term pattern that we still do not understand for a good while. I feel that there will be a turning point at which time some decent winter weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic, and hopefully that doesn’t take too much longer. Climate is like that, until it isn’t. It’s exciting to see the short term changes though, and that’s why I still enjoy his place.

Anyone think tonight’s lows are not accounting for snow? BOX showing low of 12F here, same thing happened last weekend forecasted low of 10F and we bottomed out at 2F

Still a bit interesting especially since we have nothing else on the immediate horizon

Weeklies were really good last year I’ll give them that but they’ve been useless this winter