All Activity

PDO dropping makes sense in light of 15 day SSTA change.

Positive movements here.

Something big is coming next weekend. I feel it . Things are moving

The op-ed aims to use selective statistics stripped of context to make the reader question the seriousness of climate change. The author claims that “climate-related deaths from floods, droughts, storms and wildfires... have declined by an astonishing 98%.” This statement is presented as a fact-based contrast to what he calls “alarmist narratives” about the climate. By highlighting this statistic, the author suggests that while the planet might be warming, it hasn’t made life more dangerous. This strategy of "implied argument" is intended to lead the reader to infer that the impacts of climate change are exaggerated. It is a dishonest tactic. That tactic is based on material omission of the very reason climate-related deaths has fallen, which has nothing to do with the author's thesis that the climate change threat is overstated. Finally, I didn't remove those four variables. The author did in order to make his misleading claim through implied argument.

given that it comes in around Halloween, it would seen that the CMC run is trying to look really... scary. Presumably the 0Z run will be like Monty Python says ("And now for something completely different")

Holy shit!! There we go

Lfg!

I'd happily go back to Iceland in winter where they get 5 hours of daylight. I think in late November when I went last year daylight was 10:45am to 345pm Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

A Halloween massacre!! Good luck with that actually happening.

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -

I called sandy 2.0

Theoretically, according to some studies, to have the best chance of a successfully propagating MJO event beyond the MC. There are 2 main factors to consider. Indian Ocean temps and the QBO. With the combination of a warm Indian Ocean combined with an EQBO offering the highest chance for success. Understanding the Factors Controlling MJO Prediction Skill across Events https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/20/JCLI-D-23-0635.1.xml The results show that the low-frequency background states of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and the quasi-biannual oscillation are good indicators for MJO prediction skill, for their modulatory role in the MJO propagation range. The difference in intraseasonal fields can further be attributed to the LFBS of IO sea surface temperature (SST) and quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), with the high-skill (low-skill) events corresponding to a warmer (colder) IO and easterly (westerly) QBO phase. The physical link is that a warm IO could increase the low-level convective instability and thus amplify MJO convection over the IO, whereas an easterly QBO phase could weaken the Maritime Continent barrier effect by weakening the static stability near the tropopause, thus favoring eastward propagation of the MJO. It is also found that the combined effects of IO SST and QBO phases are more effective in influencing MJO prediction skill than individual LFBS.

I beat y'all to that ha

near 100kts 925 over my fanny. Lets do it.

The 12 Cmc pulls a Sandy.

The Google models have been really consistent

And that's a positive for most in here.

Holy Canadian.

Coming

Look at the GOM into PWM. lol

Just a little more north . This isnt from the hurricane.

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.