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All you need to know is that 1950-51 destroys the whole theory. 1950 was the 5th highest ACE season (8th on NOAA, 2nd on Wunderground - behind the historic 2005 season), and that season only produced 4.6 inches of snow at PHL.

While the sample size is pretty small, there has been an increase in NYC La Niña snowfall following Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160+ ACE. There was also an increase in December +PNAs. Unfortunately, the relationship didn’t work last winter due to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Last season was the first with only 12.9” of snowfall in NYC with a strong December +PNA and a La Niña. My guess is that the high ACE was part of a similar pattern which used to produce both December +PNAs and snowy outcomes during La Nina’s. So while we got the strong December +PNA last season, the snowfall didn’t follow due to the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. So several elements in the same pattern but we can’t say that the ACE is directly the cause. Just that these elements appear together from time to time. It could be they are related to another underlying variable that we haven’t identified yet. 2005….ACE…..245….DEC PNA….+1.38….NYC snowfall….40.0” 1995….ACE……227….DEC PNA…..+0.92..NYC snowfall ….75.6” 2017….ACE……224….DEC PNA…..+0.89…NYC snowfall….40.9” 1998…ACE……181……DEC PNA…..-0.09….NYC snowfall…..12.7” 2020..ACE……180…..DEC PNA…..+1.58….NYC snowfall….38.6” 1999…ACE……176…..DEC PNA……+0.21….NYC snowfall…..16.3” 2010…ACE…..165……DEC PNA…….-1.78….NYC snowfall…..61.9” 2024…ACE….161……DEC PNA…….+1.70….NYC snowfall…..12.9”

going to be a fun winter building strawman and tearing them down

Torch Tiger seems confused.

Today near 90 and next weekend too imo as long as it doesn’t rain. What a stretch we’ve been in. Definitely cools down this week.

Hottest August ever lolz. Where do people come up with this stuff?

A bit of fog here in Templeton this morning.

NHC noting the possibility of some impacts 4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

Met summer here is stuck at 3.93". Average thru August 16 is just over 11".

Anymore shifts and outer banks could be looking at some fringe effects.

We were on the verge of drought imby when I left, glad to see the multi year just in time rains trend continue

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Hot tamale today

We can look at the SST data for the WPAC over the last 10 years and see that this has been a top down rather than bottom up warming process. The subsurface charts show warming starting at the surface around 10 years ago and gradually working down. It also matches the increase in high pressure and drop in clouds. This is consistent with the warming we have seen in other oceans like the Atlantic following light winds, more sunshine, higher pressure, and fewer clouds.

Not anymore unfortunately for the heat and dew crowd. 80 + maybe?

Looks like we get a break for a while on the mid 90s after today. This week should be very close to seasonable for the temperarures. But unfortunately it still looks drier than normal. August 18-25 forecast

I think the last rain of significance at Pit2 was on July 13th when a tiny little cell stalled right over my head and gave a 90-120 minutes of absolute deluge. Horrible after since. August: 0.0. Lawn is brown and crispy.

Finally some rain for the Pioneer Valley!

Can you narrow it down further to -NAO/-ENSO (La Niña/cold-neutral) winters? The whole theory was based on years with high ACE and recurving hurricanes during -ENSO’s supposedly causing -NAO blocking during winter

It really looked like the inner eyewall was trying to weaken last night, but now it's seemingly strengthening and the outer eyewall growing larger/weaker. Very strange

6z nhc track is again to far east as models again shift west.

Where did you get that gem?!I love that

Pretty wicked non-severe cracks and strobing.