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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
SST feedback isn't a huge factor, but I think it can act to amplify and protract once it really gets established....JMO. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I like this new pattern better....same with respect to snowfall. I'll take 7 straight clunker seasons to score a wild 3 footer, as opposed to more seasons with 5" above average. -
THIS IS GETTING PRETTY BAD. Flash Flood Warning TXC091-209-051800- /O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0061.250705T1446Z-250705T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 946 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Eastern Comal County in south central Texas... Hays County in south central Texas... * Until 100 PM CDT. * At 946 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... New Braunfels, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Canyon Lake Dam, Canyon Lake, Woodcreek, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Bear Creek, Driftwood, Mountain City, Hays, Hays City, Hunter and San Marcos Regional Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks. && LAT...LON 3022 9798 3002 9771 2999 9776 2995 9779 2988 9789 2986 9790 2986 9788 2985 9788 2973 9803 2968 9809 2966 9814 2978 9822 2992 9824 3005 9814 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR $$ MM
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
Roger Smith replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I used 31 days because July and August (and Dec Jan) are 31 day months and many of the records for calendar months are set in those months (not as many in winter given that Feb contributes more than June to lists of all-time record months). Our calendar has seven 31d months, four 30d and February (28 or 29). I can rerun the data and generate a list of top twenty 30-day averages, will hazard a guess it won't change a lot from the above. I went back into the table posted and fixed a few minor ranking errors after going back over my excel file generated list. Below 20th place (the portion you quoted) there are some 'B' 31-day intervals from various years. Each time one of those makes the list, the years below it are bumped down one rank if you were ranking years for their hottest 31-day interval (the B examples would not be in that list). -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Looks like a recipe for jock itch. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
steve392 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I am going to say the tree's were saplings or new growth back then and are what are fully grown now for us. So they probably did have less canopy cover providing shade. All the tree's in and around my neighborhood were all planted when the area was built right during WW2. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwarlock replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Im tired of this rain. Its like every late afternoon clouds up and rains...OK we get fri sat sun but you get my idea Hasn't been a great summer for weather from Memorial Day on...yippee we get 3 days but it should be 6 days with rain chance after that -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Everyone is doing cookouts today. Having the 4th on a Friday was perfect. Friday is a rest day from work, Saturday is fun day, and Sunday is a relax day. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Wouldn’t have been too much in the 1990s…-7F at CON. It’s closer to -10F today. -
51 knots a little closer to the center. Should be an upgrade to at least 45 mph, maybe 50? Seems to be overperforming since the beginning. Wouldnt be surprised to see it become a high end TS, maybe 70 mph.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ma blizzard replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
4th was yesterday bro -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Prismshine Productions replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Curious how far below average this morning low was Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk -
There is zero doubt now, that the weather is changing, and radically at that. Mid Atlantic will have tropical storm after tropical storm after tropical storm this summer. You guys are going to get sick and tired of the rain this summer. So are we down in "summery Texas". This thing just REFUSES to leave us! This POS has overstayed its welcome! Kids are dead in Kerr County! We have absolutely had it up to here with the rain! I want to go live in Cairo, Egypt no kidding. Egyptology and Archaeology have taken my entire life by storm! I adore ancient Egyptian Hieroglyphs straight from the Middle Kingdom and the 13th Dynasty! Here is another excellent resource https://cdn.sanity.io/files/cctd4ker/production/73c1c31082beefc0b8157cdf67ff5aed540898f0.pdf I absolutely adore this pdf with all my heart! I wub all those beautiful hieroglyphs!!!!!!! And all the incredible information about the steles and the pharaohs! Archaeology is so exciting! Chan Chan in Peru is another interesting place! Have you checked out the Mayan hieroglyphs? Man I have become head right over heels in love with this stuff!
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That's a great idea, if we have a mesonet location in the Park we can actually compare it to the *official* NWS ASOS.....and maybe some corrective factor can be applied to the ASOS (both for temperatures and wind speeds)? -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Did we have less trees in the 40s, 50s and 60s when all those 100+ readings and 7+ day heatwaves were happening (as well as years like 1993 and 1999) or was there overgrowth because of the higher rainfall totals we have now? Maybe it's a combination of both? And more rainfall also means more water retention by the foliage which also makes for a slower temperature rise. I agree we need to get the equipment out of that area. We also need to remove some of these trees, I notice we have a lot of parasitic trees that really do not belong here. Tree of *Heaven* being a case in point. -
Scenes from Texas are horrific. My wife is friends (well acquaintances) with one whose child is missing. If you look at radar loops it never moved for 8 hours. 10” rain in an hour.
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Peak winds at flight level 46 knots ~100 miles E of center: 151600 3126N 07712W 8423 01602 //// +144 //// 161046
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Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system and have found that the pressure has dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day. Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours. Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to the right of the landfall location. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
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...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 Location: 31.1°N 78.7°W Moving: N at 1 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph
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Looks like 1-3" of rain fell across areas of N MN (much of the state actually). Rain started late last night here with 0.46" (7am) and still raining. Pleasant wx on tap after this front leaves for the next week.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The heliport gets sea breezes off the NY Harbor. So it’s not really representative of the areas of NYC away from the shore. I would have them decommission the site by the castle since the park conservancy would never allow any of those trees to be cut down. The one thing I learned over the years is that people love their trees. Back on the South Shore were I used to live there were big disputes which emerged when some trees were going to be removed from my community. Several trees were damaged and were at a risk of falling on some of the houses. I was glad to have them removed. But some residents tried to block the tree removal guys from doing their job. As several fallen weak trees caused property damage prior to the crews arrival. So if NYC every tried to remove those trees around the ASOS, their would be a big protest. I would give the NYC mesonet the opportunity to pick a spot Central Park in a clearing to install a new site like below. So no trees would have to be disturbed. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
OceanStWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
MVY -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
DavisStraight replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
75/59, it's a beaut Clark