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I linked it up yesterday showing that the mismatch analogs would be colder than what the Euro was forecasting for last winter. But in this warmer climate they probably wouldn’t be as cold as previous mismatch years. That turned out to be correct since last winter was one of the warmest on record for past instances when those parameters were met back in the colder climate.

I got down to 49.1...it was so refreshing.

All joking aside, I will try be more mindful of seeking clarity from you in the future before passing judgement...not that you are about my take.

Low temperatures this morning ran between 5 and 7 degrees below normal for late July. The lowest I found was the 55.1 degree reading at Warwick Township. Another beauty of a day today with highs ranging from the upper 70's at higher spots to the low 80's in valley locations. We start a warming trend back to near normal on Thursday and then above normal temperatures by Friday with some spots cracking 90 degrees for the first time in more than a month. Shower chances return over the weekend.

A wonderful early fall-like morning.

Low temperatures this morning ran between 5 and 7 degrees below normal for late July. The lowest I found was the 55.1 degree reading at Warwick Township. Another beauty of a day today with highs ranging from the upper 70's at higher spots to the low 80's in valley locations. We start a warming trend back to near normal on Thursday and then above normal temperatures by Friday with some spots cracking 90 degrees for the first time in more than a month. Shower chances return over the weekend.

Great, could you link me to your seasonal temp forecast for last winter?

Actually, Graham had heavy rains from not one but two TCs in Sept of 1999: -6.36” Sept 5-7 -4.30” Sept 15-17 In addition, they had 5.12” Sept 27-30 from I don’t know what (no named storm then). https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

There would be no confusion if you asked me yesterday since I keep a record of which days they were posted on. Like…Hey can you direct me to your forecast ideas from last winter? I would have said sure and directed you to the posts from last October. My snowfall outlooks were in the NYC Metro forum.

Yeah, I really don't care about a record high temperature in Montana. It has no bearing on our area. There were a lot of record high temps in Montana during January, February, and March 2015. It's not going to take away from the fact that it was the coldest JFM since 1978 where I live. Or the fact that Montana had a +10 temp departure last December. Temps were near normal last December in my area, and it was the coldest winter of the last 10.

43° of fake cold here. Yesterday's max of a sunny 66 wasn't fake.

This is a first, @Damage In Tolland arguing with @Torch Tiger on cooler vs warmer conditions.

Beautiful morning for a walk....less humid but still pretty warm in the strong July sun....

None. If there is a record high temp in bumble Montana, we will 100% see a post in the NY forum about it. A few record lows last night across NE, silence. Zero chance this guy would have been too cold.

Can't complain for July 22nd. The lower dew points didn't sink as far south as I expected.

Records: Highs: EWR: 108 (2011) NYC: 104 (2011) LGA: 104 (2011) JFK: 103 (2011) Nw Bnswck: 102 (1980) Lows: EWR: 56 (1944) NYC: 58 (1890) LGA: 62 (1956) JFK: 59 (1966) New Bnswck: 51 (1944) Historical: 1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum) 1926: State maximum temperature record was set today at Troy, New York which was 108 °F. Also the maximum temperature of 105 °F was recorded at Waterbury, Connecticut but their state record is now 106 °F in 1995. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1959: Two one-hundredths of an inch of rain was recorded ending a streak of 150 days with no measurable precipitation at Las Vegas, NV. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: One person in Virginia was killed by lightning while playing softball. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data) 1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel) 1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: Lightning hit on or near a concrete mixing truck near Walla Walla, WA; a man was knocked off the truck. 10 minutes later a 2nd strike knocked him away from the truck again. He was fortunate he was only slightly hurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater. 2003: "The Mid-South Derecho of 2003" States affected....AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC (Ref. For More Information) 2006: Palm Springs, California: Mercury soars to 121 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2006: Widespread damaging winds, estimated around 90 mph, raked most of Jefferson County in south central Illinois. The city of Mt. Vernon was especially hard hit, where about 14% of all homes received at least minor damage. In Mt. Vernon, damage assessments indicated 1,107 homes were affected by some type of damage. 491 homes received minor damage such as roofs blown off, 152 received major damage, and 18 were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2011: A low of 82 degrees Fahrenheit on the 22nd at Norfolk tied for the second highest minimum temperature ever recorded there. Also the highest temperature for 2011 was 103 °F at Norfolk and 102°F at Richmond both on July, 22nd. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A Near Record High Minimum Temperature for Norfork)

64/63 for my low.

turned off the AC here for the day-give it a rest and let some fresh air in-69 and breezy right now

59 this morning. I see there were a few record lows in New England. Nice. San Francisco isn’t expected to hit 70°F again this July. If that holds, it’ll tie the all-time record: just two days above 70°F in June and July, the fewest since records began in 1874

Other then that 5 inches that fell locally in a few hours a month ago and 2 inches that fell with the last event, its been quiet. Yesterday was perfect. Last week Intermediate lake up north in Bellaire felt the warmest I've ever felt it, which is interesting because it wasn't a warm spring and not an overly hot summer so far. Perhaps its the lack of deep cold winters lately.

Clouds/storms look to limit heating on Saturday , if those are delayed or we have more clearing, then it very hot one. Sunday looks mainly cloudy and / stormsy.

74 / 58 off a low of 62. Partly cloudy Dry cool (coolest day since since 6/27, Upper 70s - low 80s. A bit warmer tomorrow with low to mid 80s. Thu back to 90 for most with the hottest areas to low -mid 90s. Friday the hottest day of this stretch mid - upper 90s in the hottest areas perhaps a century mark reading = cloud dependent and storm dependent. The weekend cloud magnet may limit heating to the 90 / low 90s on Sat, enough sun and mid / upper 90s in the clearest spots. Sunday looks cloudy with storms continuing into Monday. Overall warm - hot humid and wet beyond next Mon with ridge backing west.

I did, and you said you didn't put temp numbers out. Sounds like from what you have said that you would have forecasted that you nailed it, which is great....I but I find value in having a record to remove any trace of subjectivity or confsuion. Perhaps I am just rigid and others disagree.

There's a pretty interesting finding wrt our neighborhood super giant ... https://phys.org/news/2025-07-hidden-neighbor-astronomers-companion-star.html

It is still a little humid out but might as well be the desert southwest after the month we’ve had.