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That 12Z GFS run definitely on the far western edge of the NHC cone and envelope, Florida East Coast most certainly gets in on outer rain bands in that scenario.

Congrats everyone on the tropical system to the SE that may bring you much needed rain over the coming days. Hopefully the entire sub gets a really good soaking.

She gone, unfortunately

In second thought the foliage doesn't look too early. The silver birches in the undergrowth usually yellow pretty quickly.

>Looks at Vermont It begins.

It's supposed to really start late afternoon.

First blue 540 contours over us!

we've actually had a real fall this year!

Not a drop of rain so far in Vienna. Can we call this a bust yet?

Yes, for three years now, but even if I wasn't what the French do is absolutely cruel. Many of our major cities have banned foie gras.

Colder Septembers and Octobers -- the only people who like those are the energy companies who make money off of cold weather. The good thing about warmer falls is, it means less money for the fossil fuel cartels too lol.

Are you a vegan?

Humanity will continue to exist (fortunately or unfortunately), we'll all just live in an Africa like climate (which is where humanity originated after all.) I'll make the devil's advocate argument here (because I can) global cooling is MUCH more dangerous than global warming and cooling episodes have historically killed many more people and caused starvation via crop failures. There is no boiling frog and by the way I find that phrase offensive since I am 100% against the killing of animals and animal cruelty in general. It's why I hate the French so much (they boil frogs and explode the stomachs of ducks to make foie gras.)

See Chris, this is the difference between warm and hot. September 1983 was objectively and unequivocally the hottest September on record, but when you factor in minimum temperatures and not actual hot weather (above 90 degree heat), these other Septembers are warmer (but not as hot.)

Thanks!

Light drizzle, perfect for my grass seed.

big haul today

Chipmunks all over today

I don’t recall, but I’ll say the girls. Let’s face it, if I had the ball and a bunch of girls were chasing me with the objective of tackling me and rolling around in the mud…yeah, I’m not going to try my best to avoid that outcome.

12Z GEFS are also initialized W of the implied 12Z position , which was ~76W. The mean 12Z GEFS init. is ~76.5-76.7W meaning that’s ~35-50 miles too far W.

Again, low pressure to the south over NC, with high pressure to the north over eastern NY. Cool with .73" rain. Could be a snow threat in January..........

This is the first time all the red berries on my flowering dogwood have been completely picked clean this early, they were all gone by last weekend.

I honestly thought the leaves on my pawpaws looked more green yesterday too.

.73" here.