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I believe models are known to actually struggle with precipitation initialization so it's probably not something to put alot into

You can feel anyway you want bro. You missed the bigger amounts on 12/26. That crushed here, with fabulous rates, and was another cold system. Between the small refreshers and the two bigger(one of them huge) systems, and the constant and brutal cold, and continuous deep cover…I feel it’s been quite a winter. And it’s not done yet on Feb 10th. And I know lots who feel this way too. So it goes both ways. It’s all good.

3k is pretty horrible south of here. Maybe an inch at MHT.

I've been pretty intrigued by that...it's been a signal on mesos for a bit now. Even the awful RRFS has had it

12z NAM isn't matching up with the radar to the west at all though..

It's already up to 54 at the house. Going to be a warm day.

Nam loves SVT though

I usually like the Nam and think it's underrated as a tool in the box, but it's really struggled lately. That said, I approve of the weenie stripe IMBY. It's dead on this time I'm sure.

3k definitely looking convective along the cold front in SNE. Maybe in and out in 1-2hrs?

Who doesn't understand that the sun is getting higher? Jesus....

Models shitting themselves with this one.

It was 35 there yesterday? Wow, that was a good temp …nice. Only got to 30 here.

I also feel as though the condescending tone isn't very helpful if the goal is increased acknowledgement and understanding....that turns people right the fu(k off....regardless of how true it is. You're basically telling people I'm right, so if you disagree, you're either an idiot and/or have serious psychological issues...now hear me out- Like...alrighttttty then....

I’m not the only one who feels this way. Left some on the table.

NAM looks awful

12z NAM kind of meh except around the pike region

I did not. Of course it only go to 20° here.

I think it’s juicing up for SE MA late as the front picks up a little more moisture off the Atlantic before pushing through. So maybe more of a SE MA enhancement than an interior MA dry sliver? Not saying it’s correct…just guessing what it’s doing.

Check-out motives are leaning, man... Another ad nauseum aspects folks hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape going forward. Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag. In here, if you voice visions of joy outside those confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much. That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing, patience wears thin by now. And, right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter. heh -

1-3" seems likely for many in SNE. Maybe someone south of the NH border has things stack to 4" but I wouldn't forecast that. Chicken coops look to do well

You even have to know that the cold is on borrowed time. Over time, the law of averages say that things eventually return to the mean. Our recent cold winters (like 2010, 2011, and 2015) all had very warm spring months. I'm looking to the first week of March. I see warmth and 60-degree days coming.

You think it's been a cold start to February? You are correct! Here in Chester County PA with data back to 1893 this is the 3rd coldest on record as only 1905 (11.2 avg. temp) and 1905 (18.4) were colder. We finally see most spots getting above freezing today but still at least 5 degrees below normal levels. Tomorrow will be our warmest day of the work week with highs well into the 30's. We turn colder again to close out the week, and we could see some snow arrive or Sunday with a likely change to rain by Monday.

Shouldn't have looked, now I will be chasing another cycle! 6z EPS, ticked back south too with some totals.

You think it's been a cold start to February? You are correct! Here in Chester County PA with data back to 1893 this is the 3rd coldest on record as only 1905 (11.2 avg. temp) and 1905 (18.4) were colder. We finally see most spots getting above freezing today but still at least 5 degrees below normal levels. Tomorrow will be our warmest day of the work week with highs well into the 30's. We turn colder again to close out the week, and we could see some snow arrive or Sunday with a likely change to rain by Monday.

GFS has that weird little slot of lighter precip. It has done that several runs