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you're not going to get that with gloom and rain every day lol, you need record heat to get severe weather.

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1952) NYC: 96 (1957) LGA: 96 (1957) JFK: 94 (2022) Lows: EWR: 52 (1950) NYC: 51 (1926) LGA: 53 (1959) JFK: 50 (1965) Historical: 1859 - Hot Santa Ana winds in southern California roasted fruit on one side at Santa Barbara. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1882 - A tornado traveled more than 200 miles across the state of Iowa killing 130 persons. The tornado touched down about ninety miles west of Grinnell, and struck the town and college around sunset, killing sixty persons, and causing more than half a million dollars damage. Traveling at nearly 60 mph, the tornado hit Mount Pleasant about 11 PM causing another half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1959: A tropical depression spawned several tornadoes, the most severe in Miami, FL since 1925. A tornado moved northeast through Miami, across Biscayne Bay and then out to sea. 77 people were injured, mostly from flying glass. On this date through the 21st, heavy rains over the southern peninsula caused considerable flooding in poorly drained and low lying agricultural areas and some residential sections. Some highways also sustained flood damage. High tides along the west coast from Tampa south damaged boat docks and caused beach erosion. 5-day rain totals were mostly 7 to 12 inches with some scattered amounts 15 inches or more reported. This Depression went on to become a hurricane and killed 33 lobster fishermen in the Canadian Maritimes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1960: Heavy rains just west of Binghamton, NY produced 3 inches in less than 30 minutes. Flash flooding was reported in Johnson City, Vestal, and the northern sides of Endicott, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965 - Holly, CO, was deluged with 11.08 inches of rain to establish a state 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel) 1967: This was the 24th consecutive day of at least a trace of precipitation at Denver, CO. Precipitation totaled 5.87 inches during that period; more than a third of their total annual rainfall. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: On this date through the 18th, Tropical Depression Brenda crossed Key West, FL and moved through central Florida exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville. This storm gained hurricane strength north of Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: Hurricane Bridget passed just 30 miles off of Acapulco, MX. The storm was the worst in 25 years as winds gusted to 100 mph. The flagship of the Admiral of the Mexican Navy went down during the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: An F2 tornado hit the showboat "Whippoorwill" on Pomona Lake in Osage County, Kansas as it left the dock for a dinner cruise. 16 of the 58 passengers drowned as the boat capsized, making the twister the deadliest tornado of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982: On this date through the 18th, a subtropical storm moved from the southeast Gulf of Mexico, northeast across the central Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic causing at least 12 tornadoes, On the Manatee River, 20 families were evacuated. The Peace River crested a week after the storm causing the evacuation of 130 families. A one and a half year old boy drowned in a flooded drainage ditch, and a Brevard County woman drowned when her canoe turned over, her four year old son was rescued after clinging to the canoe for six hours. 12 tornadoes were reported between the morning of the 17th and the morning of the 18th from Dade and Broward Counties to Polk and Volusia counties. On the evening of the 17th, a tornado destroyed five trailers and two cars in northwest Hendry County, killing a man in a trailer and seriously injuring his wife. Another tornado moved through the Lake Josephine area in Highlands County destroying 23 homes and mobile homes and damaging many more, injuring nine people. The 10 other tornadoes caused much property damage, but no deaths or serious injuries. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: The highest wind occurrence at Columbia, MO was recorded at 95 mph. This wind occurred on the same day that a tornado struck the Columbia Regional Airport causing damage to 22 planes. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Lyons, and baseball size hail at Garden City. The Edwards Aquifer, which supplies water to San Antonio, TX, reached a record level of 699.2 feet following a record 18.43 inches of rain in thirty days. Torrential rains between the mid May and mid June sent 8.8 million acre feet of water down the rivers of southern Texas, the largest volume in 100 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Georgia and the Carolinas. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Eden, NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool air, responsible for 37 record lows in the central U.S. on the 15th and 16th, including a low of 33 degrees at Valentine NE on the 15th, overspread the eastern U.S. ending a three day seige of severe weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Extensive damage was also reported from Climbing Hill to Correctionville. Microburst winds of 105 mph were recorded at the Spencer Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1991: Record cold occurred over the Pacific Northwest. New record low temperature marks were established at Burns, OR with 31° and Yakima, WA with 36°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: A tornado leveled a house knocks down power poles and overturns about a dozen railroad cars in Aurora, Nebraska. The tornado is rated EF2, with winds between 111 and 135 mph.

the most extreme heat looks like it will be north of us though?

Looks like it's hotter in western Canada?

Must be more over the top heat, we had nothing here of note. I noticed Newark and Boston are mentioned but nothing about New York City or even Philadelphia lol. None of these recent heatwaves are anywhere close to the widespread heat we had in the past. I wonder why it's so difficult to get heat like we used to back when it reached coast to coast?

And if they are regular commuters, the slow downs on the rails from heat kinks and track patrols.

That tune will change real quick once the heat arrives. 100+ even with slight humidity could yield 110+ heat indices I could see brown outs for sure if this type of prolonged heat materializes and perhaps worse if the higher end forecasts play out.

What rain

64 / 61 hour day 4 and hour 96 of clouds. Perhaps we can break the low 70s today, but very unlikely to see breaks in the clouds and any blue skies yet. Warmer tomorrow with breaks of sun and pending on how much could hit low - mid 80s ahead of storms which could drop locally 05 - .75 inches of rain in the heaviest spots Wed Pm- evening. Thursday with enoughh sun pushes areas to their next or first 90 before afternoon / evening storms arrive. Fri - Sat transition to heat as ridge builds and rising heights to 594 - 600 DM into the northeast. Heat by Sunday with core or strongest heat looking to be in the Mon (6/23) - Fri (6/27) period. Beyond there overall warm - hot and wetter - near to above normal / more humid flow but elevated heights and heat building into the region in pieces. 6/17 : Last of the cloudy cool 6/18 - 6/19 : Warmer (90s on Thu with enough sun) but storms each night 0/5 - 0.75 6/20 - 6/28 : Hot - could see strong heat areawide more prominent Sun - Tue / Wed especially west 6/29 - Beyond : Warmer / Wetter overall - Heat in pieces

We have completely missed out on the heavy rainfall but have averaged 1/4” to 0.5” a day since Sunday for a three day running total of 0.93”

Wife yelled at me this morning: “You said it wasn’t going to rain!”

Pouring on the island. Didn’t expect this.

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/01/2021-was-northeasts-third-warmest-year-1895#:~:text=On June 30%2C Newark (103,Burlington%2C Vermont (2). On June 30, Newark (103 degrees) and Boston (100 degrees) logged their all-time hottest June temperatures. Several cities set or tied records for the greatest number of June days with a high temperature of at least 95 degrees, including Newark (8), Boston (5), Concord, New Hampshire (3) and Burlington, Vermont (2). Concord saw its greatest number of June days (9) with a high of at least 90 degrees. Seven sites recorded their warmest-ever minimum June temperatures. June 27: Caribou, 69 degrees; Rochester 75 and Syracuse 78. June 28: Dulles Airport, Chantilly, Virginia, 74. June 29: Concord 74, Harrisburg 79 and Portland 75.

Yeah, looks like our luck is about to run out. Topped out at 64F yesterday, probably won't see that for a high again until mid October.

I think they are thinking low 90s, not what the models are printing out. When I told a few that we could have a few days over 100 they didn’t believe me. But if the dews are also high, that will really cause power issues, if it is a drier heat, we should be able to handle it. I do see schools that are still in session closing though (although this is a good lesson as to why they should stick to a normal school year if their buildings are not air conditioned and not go until the end of June, but I digress).

They had it. Stein here. You only got like .2 anyways.

Always appreciate your posts. We think alike often. That's either awesome or some scary S lolol. I'm pretty sold on the CFS monthly ideas in the high latitudes. Fits the "blocking is back for a stretch" weird multi decadal pattern that I personally think is real. It's not a predictable cycle like others but it does wax and wane in 8-12 year cycles. Problem with prediction is you only know its flipped in the rear view and there are plenty of odds and ends that muddy it up. I've seen enough last couple of years to feel oddly confident this winter will feature some really nice looks. But if we're all being honest, storm tracks just aren't what they used to be. Imo- it's no fluke it's hard AF to get normal stuff underneath us in a clean way... even with good looks. You could say the east is due for a run of traditional noreasters but again, muddy odds and ends are persistently and consistently stabbing us right in the heart. Random? I hope so but idk... Intuition doesn't feel like it is...

0z Euro has 6 days in a row of over 100 degrees in NYC. We're all gonna die

Hopefully just your laptop

That’s very true. I think people are just looking for a pattern change. I know my lawn is super green but getting red thread and other fungus now that it has been so wet and dark.

.43 of rain since Sunday am in Marysville. Light mist continues now.

Yeah nothing had this

How many will perish ?

I am not sure they will be excited when the power goes out. Give me mist any day over that. Plus no one is truly excited about heatwaves if they go from AC to AC and they out of their way to avoid experiencing it.

More light rain overnight (0.18") and 5.17" so far for the month. Everything is sloppy and overgrown but fortunately we haven't experienced anything like those poor folks in Morgantown/Fairmont.