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Probably related to how warm the subsurface is from Japan to south of the Aleutians. So every time the PDO rises it meets resistance right around neutral. Will be interesting to see what the ceiling is for the PDO as the super El Niño intensifies going into the late fall and winter. The Euro seasonal maintains the warm pool there through February.

I think you're good. Looks like Fall will arrive right on time early next week hopefully to stay... 74F/DP 58F

We have been in a pattern in Feb-March since 2018 - easily the most +dm on record for a 8-year consecutive period. It will be really interesting to see how this Winter goes in Feb-March in the PNA region - models have like -150dm. My guess would be closer to neutral.

Just turned off the AC. Is that it? Is it off until next spring or just wishful thinking? 74F/DP 57F

Welllllll, maybe, maybe not. No doubt the ridge in eastern Canada is the wild card, but there are ridges across the globe and there's no guarantee the one in se Canada will be too warm or that it won't be centered further north. And exactly how it morphs over the season will obviously have something to say about it, as I think we both agree it will become more forgiving after December. That said, I still don't hold much hope for December simply due to climo. P.s Just so that you understand my pov, I don't care about monthly temps, only snowfall. And we can squeeze a storm out of a warm month.

That will help the Orioles go further south, if that's even possible

One thing I am really starting to hone in on as we get closer to go-time is the split forcing that is prevalent until Feb, when the east-basin backs off a bit....but everything about this season screams "bipolar".

Looks like it

I was speaking more about the borrrrringgness about it but you’re not wrong

Front has gone through. Steady dry northerly wind at oriole park.

And for the end of the week? A solid nobody knows? Some models are spitting out some hefty rainfalls. I hate rain. "Finally, the guidance suite is hinting at a possible coastal low pressure some time Thursday into Friday. However, there are rather large variances in track and timing. For example, the 12Z GFS has a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine at 8 AM next Friday. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF has this same low pressure about 300 miles east of southern MD for this same time. Different positions also lead to different tracks due to interactions with a mid level trough."

Do you mean incoming weather? I thought this week has been pretty sweet.

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.

Totally getting missed with the rain and storms tonight.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 - 1908 90 0 Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 94 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 93 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 91 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 90

April in perpetuity would be hell lol

It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Ninoi is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.

it could be worse .... it could be April 71/56 at sunset

a tornado went over a mountaintop at Kaysville, Utah today

Did you see this?

48” pretty much here in bed stuy Brooklyn

Chuck is in negative Nancy mode. His usual state. He swings like a pendulum lately though.

Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right.