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By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting.

I know it’s just the NAM but, I think this is what we wanna see.

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

3k was run out of our basements. Narrow high end advisory type stuff right near and just south of pike in eastern areas.

anybody have snow maps for the AI GFS and AI Euro 6z runs?

The 6z Euro just gave me 2".

Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well.

Fairly significant dip coming up.

It’s going to snow pretty good for a few hours along a narrow strip.

Not feeling this weekend storm. I feel like we're done other than a fluke mid March storm

I'm going to wait until Thursday/Friday until I can say that. February 2025 fucked up within 5 days.

Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle.

This 06z mean is a bit of a reposition W compared to the prior 00z cycle. Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous.. 06z EPS mean. Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in storm climo

Have fun Santa, as always ….

Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it.

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week.

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

heh... the crack addict will always pack the higher dose

I'm sorry if I caused anyone any great consternation with my stark realism. No malice was intended. Cheer Up! Most of the models seem invested for Sunday. But, its probably not wise to participate in any tail gate parties until Saturday.

Big improvement!!! Could we be seeing the king euro caving to GFS????

Need a last minute north bump

What.... no love for a thread for Friday night potential?

here in the battleground area, we'll take small victories when we can... the 3km being colder than the 12km for example

That is a thing if beauty bro!