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Merry Christmas everyone! Look on the bright side. At least were tracking a storm and not a Christmas torch, and PAC puke.

We had 4-5 inches on the ground last Christmas. Not in Sussex?

Icon, RGEM, RRFS all NE at 12z small bump with Icon .. I think ground zero will end up being an axis from Binghamton to BDR 15 miles either side of that line

sorry this is happening to you

Through the early 12z guidance, my thinking that the New York City area remains in line for a 4"–8" snowfall has remained unchanged. The snow could still end as a period fo sleet and/or freezing rain. The quality models such as the ECMWF, GFS, RGEM, along with the GEFS/EPS ensembles, provided reasonably consistent guidance overnight. The NAM, after flirting with the idea that NYC might see little to no snow in a bid to out-grinch the Grinch finally woke up, rubbed its digital eyes, and acknowledged the realities of the pattern and the evolving synoptic details. Its prior solution was disregarded, as virtually every EPS and GEFS ensemble member disagreed with its stingy snowfall total. Thus, the NAM had been offering an unrealistic scenario. After all, if what it was offering was realistic, at least some of the ensemble members would have provided support. For reference, New York City's last 6" or above snowfall occurred on January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell from a blizzard that crushed parts of Long Island under more than two feet of snow.

A week ago we were looking at 50's for tomorrow. Now it maybe a mess, but it's our mess, and we will get some amazing landscape images come Saturday morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I see this thread is devoid of Moderation. Mods?

Could be a general depiction i see hear across most models of a general 5" - 7", but someone in that NW to SE band (roughly 50 miles wide)will get near 10"

I wanna say that March storm in 17 or 18, can't remember but 2015 was frigid, that I recall

Maybe he meant as the CURRENT NAM depicts. However it is still the northern most model.

Jan 4, 2018 was pretty cold too over interior. Maybe not teens (except part of it but def low 20s for a long stretch)

I doubt it

2014-2015 winter? That might be what I am thinking of then.

This is 12z

2015 had several.

That's the RGEM

It just caved

Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario?

Early 2010's? Edit: Maybe 2013 or 2014?

Hi res was way NE

3K NAM spilts the forcing and NYC does very poor

Don't recall the last storm with heavy snow temps in the teens and wind chills around zero..

Hard to say where influences come from. Some could be inherent within one's self. For example,my affinity for bluegrass could have come from the Beverly Hillbillies or Andy Griffith. Check out the weather maps from the 1964 Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer. Isobars, pressure systems, almost subliminal. By 10 years old, I had my own Weather board.